What more could you ask for on Christmas and the start of Hanukah. Well, it’s all here: the paper, the links, and the free Excel simulations. Happy Holidays!!!
Note to mods: 3 paragraph limit exceeded with full permission of author. Kerry Won!!! Statistical Tools Everyone Can Use
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0512/S00242.htmThe 2004 Election Controversy will not stop. Statistical analysis of polls is now more accessible with free interactive Excel-based election models available on the Internet. Plus an interview with TruthIsAll. Special for “Scoop” Independent Media
from Washington DC
Michael CollinsDec. 21, 2005
USEFUL RELATED LINKS:
The Law of Large Numbers & Central Limit Theorem: A Polling SimulationExcel Polling Simulation Model
2004 Election Model Projection; Exit Poll Collection; Excel Interactive Election Simulation; Other links.The Kerry concession speech on November 3, 2004 marked the beginning, not the end of the controversy over the 2004 election. Just hours before the speech, Vice Presidential Candidate John Edwards emerged and said that, “John Kerry and I made a promise to the American people that in this election every vote would count and every vote will be counted."
Democrats were in a state of shock. 2004 was a banner year for new registrations, party financial support, and activism. Reported new registrations favored Democrats all over the country. Democrats were well ahead of Republicans in new registrations in Ohio. South Florida, the “scene of the crime” in 2000, saw major Democratic efforts and a lackluster Republican response.
Democrats matched and exceeded Republicans in funds raised. For the first time, the internet proved to be a highly potent form of fund raising. The Democrats collected $10 million a month for the Kerry Campaign on the Internet alone. Other groups supporting the Democrats raised substantial funds. MoveOn.Org and New Democratic Network ran parallel campaign commercials and provided other support with the $25 million they raised during the election cycle.
Activism was at an all time high. People who had never worked in elections volunteered in large numbers and local Democratic parties throughout the country saw a surge in citizen participation.
While Kerry may have conceded the election at 2:14 p.m., Nov. 3, a large portion of the population failed to accept the final results. They knew something was wrong. As one Virginia activist said, “This is simply not possible, the national results or here in Virginia.”
Why all this energy devoted to the 2004 election?I was appalled when the election was stolen from Gore in 2000. I had posted daily projections of my Election Model on DU in the four months leading up to the election. The projections were based on state and national polls. The final national model had Kerry 51.6 % of the two-party vote; the state model 51.8 %. The state model included a Monte Carlo simulation with a Kerry expected total of 337 electoral votes.
The initial exit polls and the Iowa Election Markets showed that Kerry was a 3% winner. When Bush came from nowhere after 9 p.m. to win, I had this feeling of Déjà vu. So I decided to confirm the doubts using mathematical probability analysis, based on the
preliminary exit poll data downloaded by Jonathan Simon.