How Can We Verify What Happened in Cleveland on Election Day 2004?

[Time for change]

I believe that obtaining this information, if it can be done, will provide a key to exposing how Ohio's electoral votes were stolen.

Here is my recent post in GD where I explain this:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x5627789

[Botany]

1. nothing went on there .... move along ..... nothing to see

[mod mom]

2. Don't forget the Chair of the Franklin county Dem Party said the Ohio

election was fair and anyone who said otherwise was a "conspiracy theorist".

WAKE UP OHIO DEMS! The evidence is out there. Read The Democratic Staff of the House Judicary's Report "Preserving Democracy: What Went Wrong in Ohio", Read the GAO Report on Electronic Voting Machines". the time for action is NOW~!

[Botany]

4. "they" know that they have won being dirty and are protecting

themselves that is why HB3 is being pushed through the legislature.

And it is clear to me some dem officials in Ohio had to be on the take so as to allow the theft to
happen.

Maybe the proof that Diebold could be manipulated in Florida will wake some people up.

bush got his ass kicked in Ohio in 04. It used to be Dems won N.E. Ohio the repubs
won Cincinnati and whoever won Columbus took the state.

We won Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, Toledo, Youngstown, and Canton.
But what were the real totals in those areas? In Lucas County 15,000 people voted for
a liberal dem congressperson but didn't want to vote for President?

Plus significant #s in republican base areas voted for Kerry ..... Upper Arlington voted 48% for
Kerry ..... the most republican county in the state, Morrow, County went from 68% bush vote
in 2000 to 60% in 2004.

But the media and some intellectuals will continue to sell us that their was the miracle of the exurb voters
and people of Faith came out too.

I am almost ready to give up on Ohio .... it is just too dirty.

[mod mom]

5. You are correct Botany, but we can't give up

we need a candidate who belongs to the reality based community and will bring up THE ISSUES! Without the truth coming out, and
allowing Blackwell to run the elections you can already guess who will prevail. Blackwell can't afford for the truth to come out. That is why at this point in history we must place the importance of fair elections over everything else. I don't get the Dems silence, but we can't afford to wait for them to wake up.

[OnTheOtherHand]

6. Upper Arlington did what?!

Hey, I did my time in Upper Arlington, home of the Golden Bear. IIRC my very own graduating class somehow chose "The Power of Gold" as its theme song, apparently without ironic intent.* UA, by and large, was a rock-ribbed Republican burb near Ohio Stadium where football, Christianity, and homophobia seemed inextricably intertwined -- but that was over 20 years ago. I was prepared to be amazed.

According to the numbers from the DNC analysis, UA ended up 8152 for Kerry, 10,880 for Bush. That won't get you to 48% Kerry. 43% or so.

I'm also flummoxed by "the most republican county in the state, Morrow, County went from 68% bush vote in 2000 to 60% in 2004." According to Leip, Morrow was 61.1% Bush in 2000, 64.1% Bush in 2004. I think the Bushiest county was Putnam: 74.0% Bush in 2000, 76.2% Bush in 2004. Holmes was 73.9% Bush in 2000, 75.5% Bush in 2004. Not that there are enough votes in any of these to make much difference.

I don't think it was the miracle of the exurbs or the people of faith. I don't believe in single causes -- including the vote theft explanation. But I'm still looking for evidence. Don't go messing with my head, now.

(edit: added one "Bush" and removed a hard break)

* "The story is told of the power of gold and its lure on the unsuspecting
It glitters and shines, it badgers and blinds, and constantly needs protecting
Balance the cost of the soul you lost with the dreams you lightly sold
Are you under the power of gold?"

[Febble]

3. More studies by Jim Knapp

on Daily Kos:

Castaneda applied to Cuyahoga
Cuyahoga precinct case studies
Cuyahoga County Ballot Shuffle
Cuyahoga County African American voting patterns
Cuyahoga County provisional ballot distribution -- map
Best evidence of Black disenfranchisement

And still more here

(which, if nothing else, demonstrates that there was no blanket ban on election fraud diaries on DKos in December 2004 and January 2005....)

[OnTheOtherHand]

7. so, Tfc, we're talking about electronic vote deletion?

I know nothing about the legalities and practicalities of access to the records. I'm not surprised that Vu isn't going out of his way to be helpful, but it seems to me that if you know what you are looking for, you "ought to" be able to look at it, perhaps as long as at least one person on the board likes you. Back in the 80s in Franklin County, a bunch of us were allowed serial access to every individual voting record in the city. (These were books with one card per voter, a notation of which elections each one had voted in.) That would not have been a happy way of determining how many people voted in precinct X, but it could have been done, I think, assuming that the data were accurate. That's stone-age.

An historical question is whether the results for Cleveland are out of trend. Can't be addressed readily on the precinct level because the ^$@! boundaries keep changing.

Are there specific precincts with ample EIRS reports of long lines, yet low turnouts? (I don't think those things are inherently incompatible, but it's obviously a warning sign.)

Some of the precincts with the biggest outlier turnouts probably are bona fide anomalies; you probably would be looking for something much wider-ranging, which is good in a way. You have lots of precincts to choose from -- potentially any where the turnout is under, well, 60% anyway.

Has anyone followed up with the Green(?) Party observer for more info, even qualitative, on the anomalies between poll book counts and votes?

[Time for change]

8. Those are good ideas OTOH

I hadn't thought about specifically comparing the long line reports with turnout by precinct probably at least partly because when I've looked at it before, my recollection is that the good majority of reports don't list precincts. But certainly some of them do, and that would be worth looking at. I'll do that tonight.

Also, the idea of following up with the Green Party observer is worth doing I believe. I'll see if I can do that.

PS -- I accidentally pushed the ignore button on your last post on this thread, and I can't figure out how to undo it.

[OnTheOtherHand]

9. LOL! yeah, sure, "accidentally"...

The EIRS wouldn't support rigorous analysis of Cuya turnout, but as a source of leads for precincts one might want to look at, I think it is good.

Compared to 1992 turnout by registration, Cuya is actually a bit out of trend high in 2004, which is to say: according to Leip, Ohio turnout by registration was five points lower in Ohio in 2004 than in 1992, and it was only 1.7 points lower in Cuya.

Is it inherently suspicious that it was five points lower statewide? Not necessarily, but I can't just eyeball that. I do think that turnout by voting-age population (VAP) is a better metric if you suspect both registration purges and vote deletion. Ohio VAP turnout was I think (per Leip) 65.3% in 2004, 60.6% in 1992. I.e., the proportion registered in 2004 was much higher, which supported a higher turnout (% of VAP) but also depressed turnout as a % of registration. No doubt the registration rolls included some folks who no longer lived where they were registered.

[Time for change]

10. As it turns out, I mis-spoke

It was Febble that I accidentally put on my ignore list . If it was you I wouldn't have been able to respond to your post. Well, I hope that I can correct this without having to ask for help from the administration. :(

[Febble]

11. Don't worry about it! Oh wait....

if you are ignoring this, I can't help you, can I? :)

[wakemeupwhenitsover]

12. click the 'options' icon at the top.

then scroll down the left hand column & you'll see 'ignore', click then update.

[Time for change]

16. Done -- thank you n/t

[OnTheOtherHand]

13. zounds, you fooled me into revealing that I don't really know

what "ignore" actually does. ;)

Thanks to wakemeup for the quick assist. Ignoring Febble is never a good idea IMHO.

[Time for change]

18. I see that Febble responded to my last post on this thread

because another "ignore" came up. Even though I reversed the "ignore" order I guess it's too late to bring back messages that have already been "ignored". I don't mean to ignore Febble's last post, but I have no choice.

[wakemeupwhenitsover]

20. You've still got her on ignore than.

You'll need to do it again.

Let me put someone on ignore & then reverse out. Maybe I"m giving you bad instructions.

[wakemeupwhenitsover]

21. allright,

click on the 'options' icon, click on 'ignore' in the left-hand column, then when the poster whose on 'ignore' comes up, click the box next to their name, then click 'update' below.

[Time for change]

22. Got it -- thank you n/t

[Febble]

23. Hiya!

I wish I'd posted something more profound now!

[Time for change]

24. Great, I can see you now

:hi:

Unfortunately, the links aren't working for me. Either there's something wrong with the network I'm using, or those links have disappeared.

[riqster]

14. It is possible that votes were switched, but...

more likely that voter registration records were corrupted. Cuyhaoga being such a megakludge,either or both could've happened.

How to prove it? Well, two election workers were busted for activities related to their actions at work. Maybe one of them could be persuaded to rat out their boss, as part of a plea bargain...

[Time for change]

15. I do believe that both happened

To prove the electronic deletion of votes, as I explain in my OP on GD, which I provide a link to in this OP, it should only be necessary to compare the pre-tabulator vote totals in all the precincts with the total Cuyahoga County post-tabulator vote count. If only we could find a way to get our hands on that information.

[riqster]

17. FOIA request?

I dunno, it's a thought.

[Time for change]

19. Could be -- I'm getting some advice from Ohioans who have been

working on this. Hopefully something will come of this. Thank you.

[kiwi_expat]

25. I'm not sure why you would need to check the entire county.

Cuyahoga was a punchcard county in 2004 (I'm not sure if it still is or not), so there were ballot totals in the precincts' poll books. Those would constitute the "pre-tabulator vote totals" for the number of votes cast.

What is needed is for SOMEONE to look at the poll books of a few of the suspicious-looking precincts.

I have suggested that Kucinich's office might be persuaded to lend a volunteer for the job of checking some poll books. Maybe a phone call to his office would be the way to get a volunteer for the job.

Good luck!

On edit: In addition, as you mention, a Green party recount observer said that the number of signatures did not match the ballot totals. So you have three totals that could be out of synch: number of signatures, ballot totals and tabulator totals. Keep in mind that if the number of signatures does not match the ballot totals it is NOT a tabulator error. It is a problem that occurred at the precinct.

It might be a bit much to ask a Kucinich volunteer to count the signatures in the poll books. But perhaps counting signatures for a couple of precincts would not be too tedious. It would be good to find out which precincts were involved in the Greens' recount. And better yet, to find out which of those had the signature count problems.

Cheers.

[Time for change]

26. Thank you kiwi -- the Ohio Project is working on this now

They are seeing if they can get access to the poll books, and also sharing the information with the lawyers working on the case.

[kiwi_expat]

27. That is great news!!

A correction to my post#25:
The signatures appear to be in "signature log books" that are separate from the "poll books" where the ballot totals are recorded.

So the Ohio Project will need to get access to both the "poll books" and the "signature log books".

Cheers!