GRAPHS FROM THE EXIT POLL OPTIMIZER

[TruthIsAll]

What do they show?
What is the takeaway?
Any comments?

Kerry Vote vs. WPE


Kerry Exit Poll vs. Actual Votes



Sensitivity to Weighted Average Response



Alpha vs. WPE



Kerry Vote vs. Poll



Kerry Percent Vote Deviation vs. WPE



Go here for the discussion.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x375366


Sleuths are welcome.

[LightningFlash]

1. Compelling...

These graphs show me two things.

1-The fraud was concentrated in the South West states.

2-There was consistent sampling bias in several of the east states.

Fraud seems to be very conspicuous in high-kerry areas, while dropping off in high-bush areas to show polling bias. Clearly the high-kerry areas in pro bush states are the most applicable. Ohio-Cuyahoga, Florida-Palm Beach, Texas-Los Alamos etc..

[TruthIsAll]

2. There is nothing in the graphs relative to regions.

These are from the Exit Poll Response Optimizer.
The 5 groupings are the partisanship breakdowns.

Don't read it like a geography map.

Groups I-II are High Bush precincts (aggregated).
Groups III is non-partisan.
Groups IV-V are High Kerry.

[TruthIsAll]

3. EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/7/05 10:04 PM							
							
Objective: 
Determine values of constrained variables required to derive
the target Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate exit
poll response data.							
							
Constraints on Precinct Variables:							
1-Response rate: constrained to weighted average (Min,
Max).							
2-Kerry percentages constrained to the range (Min, Max)							
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to weighted average.
							
4-WPE set to E-M actuals (default) or user input. 							
							
TARGET INPUT							
Kerry 2-party vote		48.77%					
Bush 2-party vote		51.23%					
Wtd Avg Response		53.0%					
Wtd Avg Alpha (K/B)		1.12					
							
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		
Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%		
Max	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		
							
ALPHA							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
							
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
POLL	Pct	Votes					
Kerry	52.16%	63.11					
Bush	47.84%	57.89					
Bush needed	55.46%	of refusers to match his vote					
							
PRECINCTS							
Number	40	415	540	165	90		Wtd Average
Weights	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		
							
Resp.	12.4%	37.4%	58.8%	72.0%	73.0%		53.0%
Dev	-40.6%	-15.6%	5.8%	19.0%	20.0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.22	1.09	1.16	1.11	1.00		1.12
Dev	9%	-3%	4%	-1%	-11%		0%

2-PARTY VOTE 							
Kerry	16.7%	38.7%	46.4%	68.2%	88.2%		48.77%
Bush	83.3%	61.3%	53.6%	31.8%	11.8%		51.23%
Votes (mm)							
Kerry 	0.65	15.53	24.26	10.89	7.68		59.01
Bush	3.23	24.64	28.02	5.08	1.03		61.99
Diff	-2.58	-9.11	-3.76	5.82	6.65		-2.98

EXIT POLL							
Kerry	21.7%	41.7%	50.7%	71.2%	88.0%		52.16%
Bush	78.3%	58.3%	49.3%	28.8%	12.0%		47.84%
Votes (mm)							
Kerry 	0.84	16.76	26.48	11.37	7.67		63.11
Bush	3.03	23.41	25.79	4.61	1.04		57.89
Diff	-2.19	-6.66	0.68	6.76	6.63		5.22

WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	.	Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.22	1.09	1.16	1.11	1.00		1.12
AvgDev	9%	-3%	4%	-1%	-11%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	5	155	318	119	66		663
Pct	12.37%	37.40%	58.85%	72.04%	72.98%		53.0%
							
Kerry	1	65	161	85	58		369
Pct	22%	42%	51%	71%	88%		52.16%
Bush	4	90	157	34	8		293
Pct	78%	58%	49%	29%	12%		47.84%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	35	260	222	46	24		587
Pct	87.63%	62.60%	41.15%	27.96%	27.02%		47.0%
							
Kerry	6	96	90	28	22		240
Pct	16%	37%	40%	61%	89%		44.5%
Bush	29	164	133	18	3		347
Pct	84%	63%	60%	39%	11%		55.5%
							
VOTE							
Kerry	7	160	251	113	79		610
Pct	16.7%	38.7%	46.4%	68.2%	88.2%		48.77%
Bush	33	255	289	52	11		640
Pct	83.3%	61.3%	53.6%	31.8%	11.8%		51.23%
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-66.6%	-22.7%	-7.2%	36.4%	76.4%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-56.6%	-16.6%	1.3%	42.3%	76.1%		4.31%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
				

[kster]

4. kick.nt