VERY CLOSE TO THE SIMPLE TRUTH...

[TruthIsAll]

THE TRUE VOTE

2000	Weights	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other

New	18.00%	22.0	12.5	9.0	0.5
Gore	40.10%	49.0	45.0	4.0	*
Bush	39.28%	48.0	4.0	44.0	*
Nader	2.62%	3.2	1.8	0.5	0.9
					
Total	100.0%	122.2	63.30	57.50	1.40
			51.80%	47.05%	1.15%


 
 

[Hissyspit]

1. Yup.

[In Truth We Trust]

2. Georgwe W FraWd

[Kip Humphrey]

3. I've been saying 64 million came out to defeat GW

Guess I was wrong! Of course I was trying to factor in those who never made it to the ballot box - the suppressed and disenfranchised (at least 1 million), So maybe I have been too low in my estimate!

63.3 million + 1 million = 64.3 million voters for Kerry.

[TruthIsAll]

4. So true: 63 million is a minimum, he won 63-65 million.

The 13047 exit poll, which Kerry won by 51-48%, was definitely too conservative. The weights indicated in the poll were 41%Bush/39% Gore for How voted in 2000. Those weights are impossible, since the MAXIMUM (100%) Bush turnout was 39.8%, after factoring in the annual 0.87% death rate.

The 39/40% weights as shown are realistic and plausible.

The actual vote was closer to 52.5-46.5%, which means Kerry got 64 million votes.

[Kip Humphrey]

5. Does that mean the "REAL" number of voters who showed up to boot Bush out

was in excess of 65 million, allowing for voters suppressed and disenfranchised who never got to vote?

And I thought I was stretching it with 64 million as my working number of voters who showed up to kick Bush out!

[FogerRox]

6. I think that an incumbant gets his may/june Approval rating

in NOV. Bush was at 44%---soooooo
Bush --------44%
Kerry -------55%
3rd party ----1%

sure -- factor in the folks who didnt get to vote for various reasons.
And it becomes a clear ground swell of support for Kerry.

On the upside--
Kerry won by maybe 13 million votes

on the downside Kerry won by 6 million

[TruthIsAll]

7. These numbers DO NOT include disenfranchised voters.

The 63-65 million range is based on those who THOUGHT THEY VOTED.

(1) If they came to vote and became discouraged by the long lines and left, they were surely not exit polled.

(2) Those who were disenfranchised never got to vote, period.


Kerry's total vote = 64mm + (1) + (2)