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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-31-05 12:42 AM
Original message
Poll question: Vote for your favorite Exit Poll Smoking Gun
Edited on Thu Mar-31-05 01:42 AM by TruthIsAll
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autorank Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-31-05 12:45 AM
Response to Original message
1. Gotta go for the "17 states" - 1 in 200 Trillion Odds.
Hey, I can do math. 200 Trillion is the largest number up there. Uh, in statistics, size matters!

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-31-05 02:28 AM
Response to Reply #1
7. I goofed on one BIG stat (see #9) .
Edited on Thu Mar-31-05 02:36 AM by TruthIsAll
"The Bush 2004 vote was 62mm; in 2000, 50mm (+12mm). He lost NEW voters by 3mm (12 - 9). SO WHERE DID HE GET THE OTHER 15 mm VOTES? FROM 30% OF GORE VOTERS"?

15mm should be 3mm,

It must be getting late. I wasn't thinking straight on that one.

Kerry won 12 of 21 mm New voters.
Bush won 9.

So the question is: where did Bush get the other 3 million from?

Kerry won the Independents by 1-5%.
He won the Dems by 91-9%.

So it comes to this:

Kerry 63 mm =51+12
Bush 59 mm =50+9

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Kurovski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-31-05 12:46 AM
Response to Original message
2. Speaking of favorites,
You're one of mine, TIA! :toast:
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liberal43110 Donating Member (687 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-31-05 12:52 AM
Response to Original message
3. I'm going to go with the odds on this one
...wait, nobody understands statistics anymore, do they?

:argh:
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gumby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-31-05 01:01 AM
Response to Original message
4. All of the above?
Maybe if a feeding tube was involved, the Corporate Media would pay attention?
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zann725 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-31-05 02:35 AM
Response to Reply #4
8. All of the above, too. Too many good (bad) choices.
n/t
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vpigrad Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-31-05 01:25 AM
Response to Original message
5. Don't use the term "smoking gun!"
It sounds too violent and threatening. Use the word proof since that's what you mean.
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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-31-05 01:28 AM
Response to Reply #5
6. Thanks for the cautionary note.............. n/t
.
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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Mar-31-05 03:17 AM
Response to Original message
9. This was a REALLY HARD choice, because any one of these facts calls...
...the election into serious doubt, and all of them together are overwhelming evidence of fraud. In fact, all of them together constitute "the smoking gun."

But I chose #9. It is really the new voter stats that are the clincher for me, although a close second (oh, maybe equal) are the impossible skews to Bush in the official results vs. the exit polls. If it were just that the exit polls say Kerry won, then you might find yourself in arguments all day long on whether or not the exit polls were skewed to Kerry (even though the nine Ph.D's of US Count Votes found evidence that the exit polls were actually skewed to Bush!--meaning, Kerry's margin was even higher than the exit poll 3%--the point being, who knows, about exit polls? They are samples and could be no more valid than unverifiable, secret source code electronic voting machine results.) But clearly if the exit polls were skewed--and given the size of the samples--they would all be skewed in more or less the same way, and that is not the case. It's the odds against the weird skews to Bush that is so convincing.

But the new voter stats, when I first read them in Freeman, was final confirmation to me that we are not all a bunch of nutcases. And it's not just the numbers themselves, it is the emotional and political momentum that they indicate. The Democrats had a blowout success in new voter registration in 2004. And those new voters were motivated by something--AND by SOMEONES! Their family, their friends, their co-workers, and all those passionate volunteers. That's how new voters get registered. SOMEONE pushes them down to the Post Office to get a registration form. SOMEONE rags them until they do it. SOMEONE reminds them to vote the next day. Etc. And when you think about that, then you realize that all those SOMEONES who got somebody else to register and vote were THEMSELVES highly motivated to vote.

The Republicans simply didn't have that motivation--nor the numbers--in any kind of equal quantity.

Further, the motivation indicated by the new voter numbers was consistent with everything we were hearing anecdotally. Story after story after story of highly motivated old and new Democratic voters and volunteers, in addition to many, many stories of previous Bush voters changing their minds about Bush and deciding to vote against him.

It is this emotional, motivational and anecdotal confirmation that caused me to choose #9. And the exit polls, of course, confirm that emotional, motivational and anecdotal picture.

All by itself, odds for or against something--even odds of a trillion to one--cause the mind and soul to rebel just a bit. I mean, look at the odds against Seabiscuit, or against the Johnny Wooden basketball teams' win records, or against the Beatles ever getting out of Hamburg. We love stories of beating the odds. And we hate someone pooh-poohing some heartfelt project because of the odds against it.

They're just numbers. Numbers can't account for strength of heart, determination, passion. So I've always been a little skeptical of them, and willing at least to entertain the notion that scads of Bush's "Christian soldiers" might have marched to the polls in a mad, delusional desire for Armageddon...or something.

Unreasonable, I know. But people can be very unreasonable sometimes.

Or, maybe it's that I learned of the new voter reg stats AFTER the weight of the exit poll discrepancies (and other information--such as the touchscreens changing Kerry votes to Bush votes and never the other way around) had already had an effect on me, and the new voter reg stats were the capper.

Anyway, TIA, I applaud this great summation of the evidence in poll form. Thank you!
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