Nader NH Recount is ON !!!! -- I hope. News conf. tomorrow.

[Eloriel]

Edited the title because it doesn't actually say it's definite. Sorry.

Thanks to new DUer MelissaB --

The Nader NH Recount is ON !!!!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2655045

Originally posted here (read down):
Anyone know the status of the Nader recount?
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=34784#34935

[Pallas180]

1. Congrats Eloriel. You've worked hard on this. Next week

some of us will meet in Florida to see what we can do.

[Jo March]

4. Let me know if I can do anything up here in NC

I'm ready to roll. :)

No defeat. No surrender.

[bleever]

2. A million thanks to Eloriel

for bringing all the links together! My hero for moving this forward!:yourock:

[madfloridian]

3. Take a look at the primary exit polls in NH.....not happy then with Bush.

From January 28, 2004, NH exit polls.
http://www.mrc.org/cyberalerts/2004/cyb20040128.asp

Citing exit poll numbers, some network reporters and analysts on Tuesday night sought to portray the anti-Bush attitude of voters in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary as indicative of widespread anger at Bush from the electorate in general. CBS’s Bob Schieffer intoned: “These numbers are bad news for the White House...because four out of ten voters who cast ballots today were registered independents, which means dissatisfaction with Iraq and the economy is not just confined to Democrats.” Newsweek’s Howard Fineman argued: “If I was sitting in Karl Rove’s chair tonight, I would be worried...” Running through opposition to the Iraq war, on CNBC Gloria Borger warned: “This is independent voters as well as Democrats, so that could spell some trouble on the horizon for George W. Bush.”

Just happened on this, thought it was interesting, indicates antiwar stance of many there. Would think Kerry would have won by more against Bush there.
Glad to see this is going to be done.

[Eloriel]

6. Good, GOOD catch. Very interesting.

Thanks.

[David Dunham]

5. Idiotic recount. Kerry won NH. A recount could give it toBush.

[Eloriel]

7. Idiotic post. See this:

ALL of it:

DU INFO ALERT: Why Recounting in New Hampshire Could Save Democracy
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2617155

Need Some DU Help w/New Hampshire Stuff!!! (URGENT)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=26802&mesg_id=26802

RALPH NADER MAY SAVE THE WORLD!!! (Its NOT Over in NH!) Updated Fri 8:15p
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x25116

Nader requests NH vote recount. (Did we just make a huge blunder?)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=965216

Nader, Cobb and Badnarik may all be willing to look into recounts in Ohio
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x26843

[Straight Shooter]

13. Exit poll showed Kerry ahead 15%

Vote tally reflected ahead by 1 or 2%.

Think about it.

Let's erode bush's popular vote and get rid of that frickin' mandate BS even if we can't identify all the cheating, okay?

[senseandsensibility]

16. Yes

We've got to attack this from all directions!

[DividedWeAre]

27. good call

good call, well stated. strip away as many of his lies as we can. stain him forever. expose him.

[ROH]

41. Is that really relevant to the wider issue? (n/t)

[Dark Secret]

44. If Recounted Fairly, it could, but would also bolster case to

eradicate electronic voting

do recounts elsewhere

Repubs would have less reason to object to the above

[Karmadillo]

8. I didn't see where the letter said the recount was going to happen.

It refers only to Friday's request. Am I missing something?

[Eloriel]

9. Yeah, my revised title

Okay, I got a little carried away. But I've also been in contact with one of the DUers who are at the center of this effort, hedda_foil of The National Ballot Integrity Project, along with DUer IdaBiggs who discovered these anomalies to start with and got the ball rolling. Hedda has been quite positive and last night was telling me that they were feverishly working on setting up the legal structures for funding the recount.

But you're right: these chickens aren't hatched yet. So I amended my title. I still think it's important to get the word out. YMMV.

[seemslikeadream]

10. Losing by 335,000 in N.H., Nader Demands a Recount

By Jonathan Finer and Brian Faler
Wednesday, November 10, 2004; Page A07

Independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader, who lost by about 335,000 votes in New Hampshire, has asked the state for a recount.

No, the longtime consumer advocate is not hoping to change last week's outcome in the Granite State, where Democrat John F. Kerry was the winner. Rather, he said, he is concerned about the veracity of the result

"We have received reports of irregularities in the vote reported on the AccuVote Diebold Machines in comparison to exit polls and trends in voting in New Hampshire," Nader wrote Secretary of State William M. Gardner. "These irregularities favor President George W. Bush by 5% to 15% over what was expected."

New Hampshire uses Diebold machines at 132 polling places. Gardner's office received Nader's fax at 4:59 p.m. Friday, one minute before the deadline. Under state law, if a candidate requesting a recount finished more than three percentage points behind, he must pay for the process. Gardner said that if the Nader campaign sends a check for $2,000 and promises to pay any additional charges, he will round up the ballots and initiate a hand count.

Spokesman Kevin Zeese said Nader was planning to send the check yesterday. "Either it will allay people's fears about the results, or it will Zeese said.

more
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A38000-2004Nov9.html

:hi:


open the door to looking at other states

[pointsoflight]

11. Now we find out if this issue has legs or not.

If the recount finds nothing suspicious, I can't imagine things will go much further, at least on a widespread scale.

If the count of paper ballots is consistent with the E-voting machines, it would show that the exit polling that had Kerry up by 15% in NH was clearly way off, and by extension, was probably off elsewhere.

[glugglug]

12. Kerry should pay for it.....

As the 389th wealthiest family in America, and also the one that most obviously stands to gain from this.

It is a way for him to keep up the fight without the Repugs labeling him as a sore loser if it fails.

[LisaL]

14. I am not sure it would be legal. Kerry paying for Naders' recount.

Kerry could ask for his own recount in OH and Florida if he wanted.

[Straight Shooter]

15. and where is the bush family in that "wealthiest families" rating

Do you even know?

What's his wife's money got to do with it? Are you investing in America, or aren't you?

[shib]

17. Well...

At least someone is interested in looking into this.

[newyawker99]

22. Hi shib!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[glugglug]

18. Bush's family we know has no morals

Kerry's we can at least hope... and yes it's legal -- the Nader site asks for donations from everyone to pay the costs of the recount, why not Kerry?

[newyawker99]

21. Hi glugglug!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[GuardingVirginia]

19. Nader New Conference

I attended the Nader new conference in DC. They had Bev Harris speak (from Blackboxvoting). She did a great job of covering the concerns with e-voting. Lots of current and past concerns. She mentioned her concerns about what background check on the e-voter programmers. She talked about the 'central tabulator' which all the vote are sent. She made some good points about how you to don't have to hack into each voting site but just in to the central tabulator to change the results or it could be part of the secret programing. She noted a couple of times she doesn't care who wins but the votes must be count correctly. She noted that NH had anomalies in 2000. (One might theorize that some states are slowly being 'moved' toward the other party and a trend needs to be built even if a state doesn't swing in that election).

Ralph then spoke on a boarder issue of how screwed up our election systems is. How it's wrong to have a partisan person in charge of elections. Like the loyal Republican in charge in Ohio. He said they went to NH first because it had the first recount date. More will follow if there is money. They still need money for NH.

I can say that the media seemed to be just there putting in there time but took notes and had a few good questions. Ralph gave it to the Dems. Said here is was helping out in Ohio even after they had fought so hard to keep him off. He challenged Kerry/Edwards to stand up to there promise to make 'every vote count'.

[oregonjen]

20. When does the recount begin? Today?

[newyawker99]

23. Hi GuardingVirginia!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[DividedWeAre]

26. rafael

ralph had the right to run the first time but should have understood how easily he could screw things up. the higher ideal of the broken democracy failed in the face of the bottom line (not bush!). the second time he should have folded or met with the democrats for a joint strategy. but, what the heck, if he helps now, he not only makes up for some stuff but holds true to his stated ideals. fine. but here's more... i understand kerry keeping quiet and planning for the loyal opposition role in congress. fine, if that satisfies him. but edwards, the truth-teller.. c'mon man, speak up now. you are unemployed. don't think you are going to go from unemployed to candidate in '08. no way, we need you, now. speak up!

[rodeodance]

32. Kerry lawyers went to OHIO today--MSNBC website

[ROH]

24. What's the latest on this? Has the recount started? (n/t)

[NCvoter]

25. What's going on with this?

This recount is very important. Optical scanners, exit poll errors...

[Nitro]

28. Please recount all the others, but not NH! I'm begging you - It's a trap!

All the early pro-Kerry exit polls were within the margin of error from the pre-election state tracking polls. All of them except NH, which fell out of that margin by a ton. Think about it.

1. I have no doubt the presidential election was stolen with e-voting - NO DOUBT!

2. I understand why we are pursuing NH for the recount. I see how it get the ball rolling. But it looks like we no longer need to do it anyway, since recount efforts in other states are already being pursued.

3. I think we are being tricked.

WHY?

The 57-41 and 58-41 exit polling results were a plant. The Repukes obviously had access to the early exit polls before anything was leaked, and they knew what the results would tell everyone: a sure Kerry win. They knew that after they manipulated the machines, people would surely find out about it using statistics and common sense (like we have).

So what did they do about it?

They went and changed one. They manipulated the NH exit poll results so we would call for a recount in a state that requires a paper trail, which would "confirm" that no cheating occurred (and possibly this is why Nader has answered our call - no, I don't trust him. How could I?).

Why do I believe this?

I remember seeing two early exit polls, and the one most people weren't using polled Kerry up by 3% in NH(the one not leaked from the NEP). In this less used poll, Kerry had basically the same margins as he did in the NEP in the other questionable swing states (but not NH).

Remember, the evidence of vote fraud isn't strong in NV, which requires a paper trail, and ME, which doesn't use e-voting. Do you actually think the Repukes hadn't considered NH's paper trail? Please people, come to our senses. We can't let them use NH to tell us were wrong!

Just look at all this:

This is from some message board on election day:

*
Wonkette sez: Repub Luntz's numbers... (none / 0)

5:25 p.m.
From an email circulated by Frank Luntz:
Way too close to call/BUT leaning Kerry by 1 percent
Fla.
Ohio
Pa.: 54 percent for Kerry
Wisc: 3 point lead for Kerry
Iowa.: 1 point lead for Kerry (Bush supposed to win)
NM: Kerry plus 2
Nev: Bush plus 1
NH: Kerry by 3
NJ: 8 points for Kerry
Colo: Bush plus 2
Mich: Kerry plus 4

http://forums.windrivers.com/showthread.php?t=65809
*

Notice how every other state matches with the early exit polling, except NH!!!!

Also check out this post here about exit poll numbers:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph ...

Another clue:
Zogby had +5 for Bush in his pre-election polling. +10 and higher is outside of the MOE.

Rove eagerly pointed out the huge "lead" in NH on FOX:
http://www.registerguard.com/news/2004/11/09/ed.edit.ex ...

Also, here:
NRO's Kathryn Jean Lopez proffers the following set of numbers at 5:28 PM:

Kerry-Bush
FL 50-49
OH 50-49
PA 54-45
WI 51-46
MI 51-47
NH Kerry +3

NV 48-50
CO 46-53
NC 49-51
MO Bush +11

http://www.danieldrezner.com/archives/001709.html

And here:
NUMBERS WE'RE SEEING
WARNING: I'M REPORTING WHAT WE ARE SEEING. IT DOES NOT MAKE IT THE FINAL RESULTS. ONLY THE VOTERS DO THAT. (And excuse cap letters, but everytime I warn, half the readers tell me I should have warned and the other half say I am pathetically desperate.
Kerry-Bush
FL 50-49
OH 50-49
PA 54-45
WI 51-46
MI 51-47
NH Kerry +3

NV 48-50
CO 46-53
NC 49-51
MO Bush +11

http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/04_11_02_corner ...

Also, please read this article again, and pay careful attention to the part on NH:
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/november2004/03110 ...

Remember, Kerry became the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 to beat a sitting Republican president in New Hampshire. Do you really think he would win by 18 points, out of nowhere?!? And why were these specific numbers leaked so heavily and reported by on by the same corporate media who said they wouldn't discuss exit poll numbers?!?

We're relying on rational thought and statistical proof to conclude that Bush cheated. Please use the same rational approach to statistics to realize it didn't happen in NH!!!!!! All they needed to do, really, was switch the ones digit in the leak email (so that 51-48 became 58-41).

NH COULD RUIN ALL THE HARD WORK WE'VE DONE SO FAR. WERE BEING TRICKED INTO PROVING OURSELVES WRONG!!!!!! DO NOT GO THROUGH WITH THE RECOUNT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE!!!!! THEY MANIPULATED THE NH EXIT POLL DATA TO THROW US OFF FROM THE REAL FRAUD!!!!!!!

[IAMREALITY]

29. Please all, pay attention

Please, I beg of all of you, please remember NH is the first recount request because NH had the first recount request deadline. Other requests for recounts are in the works in other states. This is no conspiracy theory (NH recount), it is just simply timing.....

[Nitro]

31. If NH proves to be accurate....

....since it is the first and easiest recount, the media will have an excuse to mock us and they won't go forward with the others.

What do you make of their being two different exit poll numbers leaked, all showing the same results, except that huge discrepency in NH?

Why were the exit polls accurate in NV, the only other swing state with a paper trail for e-voting? Don't you think they would have remembered to do the same in NH?

Come on, people. This IAMREALITY guy is as new as I him. Why trust him? Look at my arguments again, please.

I want these a-holes to get caught. We have enough to go on already in other states, we don't need NH to blow it for us.

How do we really know Bev Harris was at the press conference? No one has seen or heard from her in days. There is nothing posted about it on BBV.org. The only thing we have to go on that she was there are second-hand accounts.

[IAMREALITY]

35. Nitro, I will run circles around you. How Dare You

How Dare you call me out. Who do you think you are? And you think these DU'rs need you to help them determine who they will trust? They are more than capable to make that distinction for themselves without your whining prodding them.

DO NOT TAKE MY NAME IN VEIN AGAIN (hehe)

[Nitro]

37. It about my theory, not me and you, IAMREALITY

He's attacking me, but not my argument. Does that sound familiar to anyone here?

[IAMREALITY]

38. This Will Be All

This is the last I will respond to pettiness. I already responded to your argument. There are a million ways I could devour for for the 'hey, he's new too, who do you trust' comment, but I will be the better man and next time ignore the childishness.....

[Nitro]

39. What was your reponse?

That NH has to be done first?

Wouldn't that also support my argument?

I'm not being petty. I'm trying to give people some perspective. You came on here attacking me (but not my perspective). Who's petty?

The fact that you haven't addressed it means you're probably not concerned about it. Now I'm concerned that you're a troll or a freeper or whatever they call them here.

[rodeodance]

33. well said--thanks

[Blue in the face]

30. NH recount

I think we need to be as quiet as possible about the impact that NH could have on the rest of the audit effort. I believe that NH is about getting a foot in the door and getting the hard evidence that all the naysayers are saying we can't get.

What happens if they tried to cheat in NH and just weren't as successful as they've been so far in Ohio? If there were anomolies there that are also found in Iowa, Florida, etc, then the mainstream media and the GOP would have no choice but to start to come to grips with the fact that the results were fraudulent.

I believe that Bev and the Nader people are looking for specific evidence that they can find in NH to help in Ohio, Iowa, NM and Florida.

Keep the faith!

[Nitro]

34. The people rebutting me right away are also newbies

NH could slam the door in our faces! We've already got enough help going on the other states.

Why was NH the only exit poll that heavily deviated from the margin of error in the pre-election tracking polls? Why was it the only one that was different in the other leaked results? The GOP knew NH had a paper trail.

Think people. The same rational approach to statistics that's led us to conclude fraud would lead us to see the danger in pursuing a NH recount. Pursue the others. Pursue them hard. Don't pursue NH. We don't know all the facts.

[Blue in the face]

42. Newbie?

So I'm not entitled to my opinion because I haven't posted enough? I didn't see that in the DU rules.

I think I addressed your concerns. I just don't think they warrant people like Bev Harris, who is an expert in voter fraud, being told that she shouldn't look at NH because it might undermine Kerry's win there.

I just saw a link on this board (I can't find the thread) that showed graphs of the amount of red shift from the exit polls to the results. NH led them all with 5%. If NH was the leader in discrepancies between exit polls and actual results, then it makes since to start looking for clues there.

[Nitro]

45. You didn't even read my post

There was another set of exit poll data. It showed all the other swing states with the same Kerry lead, except it only showed Kerry with a 3% lead in NH, which makes a whole hell of a lot more sense than 18%. Why can't anyone see this?

And I haven't seen any official confirmation that Bev Harris is involved in the NH recount. She hasn't been heard from since Friday.

[Blue in the face]

46. I read all of your posts

And I didn't see an 18% margin for Kerry. This is what was posted http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x38567 . And the link there said Kerry had a 10% margin. The rest of the polls that I've seen showed around 5.

NH had the biggest swing of all the states, so why not start there? Bev Harris stated that she thinks that NH has some evidence of fraud. Wouldn't you want that evidence to try to win back states like OH, NM and Iowa?

[Nitro]

36. Notice they are not addressing my theory....

Just shooting me down as a conspiracy theorist. Sound familiar to anyone here?

My concern makes sense. Read and re-read my post and think about it. I think NH isn't worth the risk of the damage it could do to our other recount efforts. People want to believe that we are wrong. The last thing we want to do is give them "proof"?

Remember Rathergate? All that did was provide "proof" to Faux News's claims that the media is liberal.

We can't let these motherf*ckers do that to us this time. It's too god d@mn important!

[Nitro]

40. Just follow the links Loriel provided at the top

They both lead to threads based on posts by newbies. Doesn't anyone think there might be a chance this is a setup?

Look at how reactively that strange iamreality guy acted in response to my posts. It looks like I at least hit a nerve with someone.

By the way, why no more updates from Bev or at BBV.org?

[bluetrain]

43. Yahoo is reporting Nader's Challenge

Give it a high five rating:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1506&e=1&u=/afp/us_vote_nader