Can anyone here explain how this could happen?

[TruthIsAll]

[garybeck]

1. It appears from the graphic

that at 2am, ALL of the 600 or so votes that were added to the tally were given to Bush.

[TruthIsAll]

8. HERE IS THE COMPLETE ANALYSIS

National Exit Poll Time Line

Preliminary 1:  Nov. 2,  7:58pm, 11027 respondents
Preliminary 2:  Nov. 3, 12:22am, 13047 ""
Final 3:        Nov. 3,  2:04pm, 13660 ""

There was NO CHANGE IN THE AVERAGE OF THE WEIGHTED NATIONAL
PERCENTAGES after 2020 additional respondents were
interviewed between 7:38pm and 12:22am.

  Time Sample Bush  Kerry     Nader
 7:38pm 11027	47.91%	50.76%	1.14%
12:22am 13047	47.90%	50.76%	1.00%

But look what happens between 12:22am and 2:04pm (after just
613 additional respondents):
 2:04pm 13660	50.89%	48.04%	0.30%

Kerry gained in the Party ID split between 7:38pm and
12:22am, going from 38 Dem/36 Rep/26 Independent to 38 Dem/35
Rep/27 Independent (2020 respondents). The effect of this
slight change was to increase his national weighted average
from 50.24% to 50.69%.
 
 Time  Sample Bush Kerry	Nader
 7:38pm 11027	48.24%	50.24%	1.26%
12:22am 13047	47.77%	50.69%	0.92%

But the next day, the Party ID weights mysteriously changed
to 37/37/26 when the final 613 respondents were sampled -
quite a feat.
 2:04pm 13660	49.69%	49.15%	0.27%

Totals may not add to 100% due to rounding.

Here's the progression of the exit poll tranformation from
Kerry to Bush, from left to right, literally and
figuratively.

From an initial 11,027 on CNN to a pristine 13,047 on WP to a
soiled 13660 on CNN.

	CNN	7:38pm	11027	Sample		WP	12:22am	13047	Sample	CNN	2:04pm	13660	Sample
     
	Mix1	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix2	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix3	Bush	Kerry	Nader
GENDER
Male 	46.0%	51%	47%	1%		46%	52%	47%	1%		46%	55%	44%	0
Female 	54.0%	45%	54%	1%		54%	45%	54%	1%		54%	48%	51%	0
	100%	47.76%	50.78%	1.00%		100%	48.22%	50.78%	1.00%		100%	51.22%	47.78%	0.00%
														
EDUCATION														
	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No H.S.	4.0%	47%	52%	1%		4%	47%	52%	1%		4%	49%	50%	0
HSGrad  22.0%	48%	51%	1%		22%	48%	51%	1%		22%	52%	47%	0
Colleg  31.0%	51%	47%	2%		31%	51%	47%	1%		32%	54%	46%	0
ColGrd  26.0%	50.5%	48.5%	1%		26%	50%	48%	1%		26%	52%	46%	1%
Postg	17.0%	40%	58%	2%		17%	40%	58%	2%		16%	44%	55%	1%
	100%	48.18%	50.34%	1.48%		100%	48.05%	50.21%	1.17%		100%	51.24%	47.82%	0.42%
																										
RACE AND
GENDER	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
WMale	36.0%	58%	41%	1%		36%	58%	41%	1%		36%	62%	37%	0%
WFem    41.0%	52%	47%	1%		41%	52%	47%	1%		41%	55%	44%	0%
NonWM   10.0%	29%	70%	1%		10%	28%	69%	1%		10%	30%	67%	1%
NonWF   13.0%	22%	77%	1%		13%	22%	77%	1%		12%	24%	75%	1%
	100%	47.96%	51.04%	1.00%		100%	47.86%	50.94%	1.00%		99%	50.75%	47.06%	0.22%
														
AGE	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
18-29 	17.0%	43%	56%	1%		17%	43%	56%	1%		17%	45%	54%	0
30-44 	27.0%	50%	49%	1%		27%	50%	49%	1%		29%	53%	46%	1%
45-59 	30.0%	47%	51%	2%		30%	47%	51%	1%		30%	51%	48%	0
60+ 	26.0%	51%	48%	1%		26%	51%	48%	1%		24%	54%	46%	0
	100%	48.17%	50.53%	1.30%		100%	48.17%	50.53%	1.00%		100%	51.28%	47.96%	0.29%
														
INCOME	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
0-$15K 	9.0%	33%	66%	1%		9%	33%	66%	1%		8%	36%	63%	0
$15-30 	15.0%	39%	59%	2%		15%	39%	59%	1%		15%	42%	57%	0
$30-50 	22.0%	47%	52%	1%		22%	47%	52%	1%		22%	49%	50%	0
50-75 	23.0%	53%	45%	2%		23%	53%	45%	1%		23%	56%	43%	0
-100 	13.0%	50%	49%	1%		13%	50%	49%	0%		14%	55%	45%	0
-150 	11.0%	53%	45%	2%		11%	53%	45%	2%		11%	57%	42%	1%
-200 	4.0%	53%	47%	0		4%	53%	47%	0%		4%	58%	42%	0
200+ 	4.0%	58%	41%	1%		4%	58%	41%	1%		3%	63%	35%	0
	101%	48.12%	51.42%	1.46%		101%	48.12%	51.42%	0.95%		100%	51.02%	48.13%	0.11%
														
														
IDEOLOGYMix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Lib 	22.0%	12%	87%	1%		22%	12%	86%	1%		21%	13%	85%	1%
Mod 	45.0%	42%	57%	1%		45%	41%	57%	1%		45%	45%	54%	0
Con 	33.0%	82%	16%	1%		33%	82%	16%	1%		34%	84%	15%	0
	100%	48.60%	50.07%	1.00%		100%	48.15%	49.85%	1.00%		100%	50.83%	47.95%	0.22%
														
RELIGIONMix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Prot	53.0%	56%	43%	1%		53%	56%	43%	1%		53%	59%	40%	0
Cath 	27.0%	49%	50%	1%		27%	49%	50%	1%		27%	52%	47%	0
Jewish	3.0%	23%	77%	0		3%	23%	77%	0%		3%	25%	74%	0
Other 	7.0%	20%	75%	5%		7%	20%	75%	4%		7%	23%	74%	1%
None 	10.0%	29%	70%	1%		10%	29%	70%	1%		10%	31%	67%	1%
	100%	47.90%	50.85%	1.25%		100%	47.90%	50.85%	1.18%		100%	50.77%	47.99%	0.17%
														
														
MILITARYMix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Yes 	18.0%	55%	43%	2%		18%	55%	43%	1%		18%	57%	41%	1%
No 	82.0%	46%	53%	1%		82%	46%	53%	1%		82%	49%	50%	1%
	100%	47.62%	51.20%	1.18%		100%	47.62%	51.20%	1.00%		100%	50.44%	48.38%	1.00%
														
														
WHEN
DECIDED	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Today 	6.0%	41%	54%	5%		6%	40%	53%	5%		5%	45%	52%	1%
3Days   3.0%	42%	54%	4%		3%	41%	53%	4%		4%	42%	55%	1%
Week 	2.0%	51%	48%	1%		2%	51%	48%	1%		2%	51%	48%	0
Month	10.0%	38%	61%	1%		10%	38%	60%	1%		10%	44%	54%	1%
Before  79.0%	50%	50%	0%		79%	50%	50%	0%		79%	53%	46%	0%
	100%	48.04%	51.42%	0.54%		100%	47.95%	51.23%	0.54%		100%	51.22%	47.50%	0.19%
														
REGIONMix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
East	22.0%	40%	58%	1%		22%	41%	58%	1%		22%	43%	56%	1%
Midwest	25.0%	49%	50%	1%		26%	49%	50%	1%		26%	51%	48%	0
South	31.0%	54%	45%	1%		31%	54%	44%	1%		32%	58%	42%	0
West	21.0%	45%	53%	1%		21%	45%	53%	1%		20%	49%	50%	1%
	99%	47.24%	50.34%	0.99%		100%	47.95%	50.53%	1.00%		100%	51.08%	48.24%	0.42%
														
														
PARTY
ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem 	38.0%	9%	90%	1%		38%	9%	90%	1%		37%	11%	89%	0
Rep 	36.0%	92%	7%	1%		35%	92%	7%	0%		37%	93%	6%	0
Ind	26.0%	45%	52%	2%		27%	45%	52%	2%		26%	48%	49%	1%
	100%	48.24%	50.24%	1.26%		100%	47.77%	50.69%	0.92%		100%	49.69%	49.15%	0.27%
														
														
VOTED IN
2000	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
No	17.0%	39%	59%	1%		17%	39%	59%	1%		17%	45%	54%	1%
Gore	38.0%	8%	91%	1%		38%	8%	91%	1%		37%	10%	90%	0%
Bush	41.0%	90%	9%	0%		41%	90%	9%	0%		43%	91%	9%	0%
Other	4.0%	13%	65%	16%		4%	13%	65%	16%		3%	21%	71%	3%
	100%	47.09%	50.90%	1.19%		100%	47.09%	50.90%	1.19%		100%	51.11%	48.48%	0.26%



Exit Poll Comparison Summary

Average	of all categories		
Poll   Bush	Kerry    Nader
11027	47.91%	50.76%	1.14%
13047	47.90%	50.76%	1.00%
13660	50.89%	48.04%	0.30%

Poll   Bush	Kerry    Nader
Gender			
11027	47.76%	50.78%	1.00%
13047	48.22%	50.78%	1.00%
13660	51.22%	47.78%	0.00%
			
Education			
11027	48.18%	50.34%	1.48%
13047	48.05%	50.21%	1.17%
13660	51.24%	47.82%	0.42%
			
Race/Gender			
11027	47.96%	51.04%	1.00%
13047	47.86%	50.94%	1.00%
13660	50.75%	47.06%	0.22%
			
Age			
11027	48.17%	50.53%	1.30%
13047	48.17%	50.53%	1.00%
13660	51.28%	47.96%	0.29%
			
Income			
11027	48.12%	51.42%	1.46%
13047	48.12%	51.42%	0.95%
13660	51.02%	48.13%	0.11%
			
			
Ideology			
11027	48.60%	50.07%	1.00%
13047	48.15%	49.85%	1.00%
13660	50.83%	47.95%	0.22%
			
			
Religion			
11027	47.90%	50.85%	1.25%
13047	47.90%	50.85%	1.18%
13660	50.77%	47.99%	0.17%
			
Military			
11027	47.62%	51.20%	1.18%
13047	47.62%	51.20%	1.00%
13660	50.44%	48.38%	1.00%
			
When Decided			
11027	48.04%	51.42%	0.54%
13047	47.95%	51.23%	0.54%
13660	51.22%	47.50%	0.19%
			
Region			
11027	47.24%	50.34%	0.99%
13047	47.95%	50.53%	1.00%
13660	51.08%	48.24%	0.42%
			
			
Party ID			
11027	48.24%	50.24%	1.26%
13047	47.77%	50.69%	0.92%
13660	49.69%	49.15%	0.27%
			
			
Voted in 2000			
11027	47.09%	50.90%	1.19%
13047	47.09%	50.90%	1.19%
13660	51.11%	48.48%	0.26%
			
Average			
11027	47.91%	50.76%	1.14%
13047	47.90%	50.76%	1.00%
13660	50.89%	48.04%	0.30%


 
 

[blogbear]

2. As has been said the only constant has been change and..

change is not necessarily good when it has not been in a postive direction. Can we expect people to make informed decisions if we keep them in the dark about what is happening? We must all get the word out and make ourselves even more clear if ever we are to succeed. Our opponents have strategy and ours needs to be a better one.

[Wilms]

3. TIA, is that last column 2:04 AM or 11/5 2:04PM? n/t

[TruthIsAll]

5. 11/03 at 2:04pm... what took them so long? nt

.

[punpirate]

4. It's very hard to see from the graphic...

... (I wish the candidate totals were included for each time frame), but it appears that Kerry's total was adjusted downward slightly, while remaining 613 votes all went to Bush at the final count.

I also wonder why the WP count was inserted between two CNN counts, instead of the totals for either CNN or WP or both, as long as they were shown separately. CNN had to be collecting cumulative info at least as frequently as the WP.

[TruthIsAll]

6. The numbers

Date	Time	Sample	Kerry%	Bush%	KVotes	BVotes	K%Chg	B%Chg
2-Nov	7:38pm	11027	50.76%	47.91%	5597	5283		
3-Nov	12:22am	13047	50.76%	47.90%	6623	6250	50.76%	47.85%
3-Nov	2:04pm	13660	48.04%	50.89%	6562	6952	-9.85%	114.53%

[Iceburg]

7. Interesting ...not only did Kerry not win any of the votes from

the 2:00pm sample, but all voters including the independents {representing about 1.33% of the vote ie Sample Votes - (B+K)Votes } broke 100% for Bush and then some!!! Not only were Kerry's numbers reversed by 61 votes (6623-6652=61) representing 10% of the sample votes added (613) at 2:04pm, but the number of independents at 2:04pm were reduced by 174-146=28 votes from the earlier sample.

[TruthIsAll]

9. I'm kicking this to give the naysays a chance to refute your calcs...

.