So all those new, young, single, liberal women voted for Bush?

[TruthIsAll]

The National Exit Poll had Kerry winning the bulk of the 21
million new voters by a 3-2 margin. As a result, he won the
election by 50.8-48.2%. 

But Edison/Mitofsky claim that Bush voters were reluctant to
tell  exit pollsters who the voted for. Apparently, E/M never
read their own report; the data says just the opposite: Bush
voters in heavy GOP precincts were more apt to speak to the
pollsters. If so, Kerry's margin was even bigger than 2.6%. 

And that's not even considering all those Democrats who were
disenfranchised or stood on line but never got a chance to
vote. 

Inquiring minds: So where did Bush get his 12 million new
voters from, as compared to 2000?  

(Votes in thousands)

	2000	2004	Pct	2000	Pct	2000	Pct	2004	Pct	 2004 Pct   2004Chg
State	Votes	Votes	Chg	Bush	Vote	Gore	Vote	Bush	Vote	Kerry	Vote	Bush	Kerry
Total	104339	122171	17.1%	50,456	47.87%	51,000	48.38%	62,029	50.77%	59,026	48.31%	2.90%	-0.07%

HI	365	429	17.6%	138	37.79%	205	56.28%	194	45.26%	232	54.01%	7.47%	-2.28%
RI	405	436	7.6%	131	32.23%	250	61.59%	169	38.77%	260	59.57%	6.54%	-2.02%
NJ	3,168	3,610	14.0%	1,284	40.54%	1,789	56.47%	1,668	46.21%	1,911	52.95%	5.66%	-3.52%
AL	1,652	1,883	13.9%	941	56.97%	693	41.92%	1,176	62.49%	694	36.86%	5.52%	-5.06%
TN	2,063	2,437	18.1%	1,062	51.46%	982	47.58%	1,384	56.80%	1,036	42.53%	5.33%	-5.05%

CT	1,442	1,579	9.5%	561	38.92%	816	56.61%	694	43.94%	857	54.31%	5.02%	-2.30%
NY	6,755	7,389	9.4%	2,403	35.58%	4,108	60.81%	2,963	40.10%	4,314	58.39%	4.52%	-2.42%
OK	1,219	1,464	20.1%	744	61.08%	474	38.92%	960	65.57%	504	34.43%	4.49%	-4.49%
MA	2,669	2,905	8.9%	879	32.92%	1,616	60.58%	1,074	36.97%	1,804	62.09%	4.05%	1.51%
WV	643	756	17.6%	336	52.36%	295	45.98%	424	56.06%	327	43.20%	3.71%	-2.78%

DE	326	375	15.2%	137	42.16%	180	55.29%	172	45.77%	200	53.36%	3.61%	-1.93%
LA	1,741	1,939	11.4%	928	53.30%	792	45.52%	1,102	56.85%	820	42.31%	3.54%	-3.21%
UT	754	927	22.9%	515	68.32%	203	26.93%	664	71.64%	241	26.03%	3.32%	-0.90%
AZ	1,513	2,013	33.1%	782	51.67%	685	45.31%	1,104	54.87%	894	44.40%	3.19%	-0.91%
KS	1,058	1,188	12.3%	622	58.84%	399	37.75%	736	62.00%	435	36.62%	3.17%	-1.13%

NE	690	777	12.6%	434	62.86%	232	33.58%	513	65.98%	254	32.72%	3.12%	-0.86%
FL	5,923	7,604	28.4%	2,913	49.18%	2,912	49.17%	3,965	52.14%	3,584	47.13%	2.96%	-2.04%
KY	1,535	1,796	17.0%	872	56.86%	639	41.63%	1,069	59.55%	713	39.69%	2.69%	-1.95%
MD	2,013	2,384	18.4%	814	40.42%	1,146	56.91%	1,025	42.98%	1,334	55.97%	2.56%	-0.94%
IN	2,166	2,468	13.9%	1,246	57.51%	902	41.64%	1,479	59.95%	969	39.26%	2.44%	-2.37%

MO	2,340	2,731	16.7%	1,190	50.86%	1,111	47.49%	1,456	53.30%	1,259	46.10%	2.44%	-1.39%
CA	10,847	12,392	14.2%	4,567	42.11%	5,861	54.03%	5,510	44.46%	6,745	54.43%	2.36%	0.40%
GA	2,549	3,299	29.4%	1,420	55.69%	1,116	43.78%	1,914	58.03%	1,366	41.41%	2.34%	-2.37%
AR	909	1,056	16.1%	473	52.02%	423	46.50%	573	54.26%	469	44.40%	2.24%	-2.10%
NM	594	756	27.2%	286	48.18%	287	48.24%	377	49.84%	371	49.05%	1.66%	0.80%

PA	4,870	5,766	18.4%	2,281	46.84%	2,486	51.04%	2,794	48.46%	2,938	50.96%	1.62%	-0.08%
IL	4,712	5,275	11.9%	2,019	42.86%	2,589	54.94%	2,346	44.46%	2,892	54.82%	1.61%	-0.12%
MN	2,405	2,823	17.4%	1,110	46.15%	1,168	48.58%	1,347	47.71%	1,445	51.20%	1.57%	2.61%
TX	6,371	7,410	16.3%	3,800	59.64%	2,434	38.20%	4,527	61.09%	2,833	38.23%	1.45%	0.03%
MI	4,208	4,838	15.0%	1,953	46.42%	2,170	51.58%	2,314	47.83%	2,479	51.25%	1.41%	-0.34%

WI	2,574	2,993	16.3%	1,237	48.06%	1,243	48.28%	1,478	49.38%	1,490	49.76%	1.32%	1.48%
IA	1,302	1,505	15.6%	634	48.71%	639	49.03%	752	49.96%	742	49.29%	1.24%	0.26%
MS	986	1,138	15.5%	573	58.12%	405	41.05%	673	59.10%	457	40.13%	0.97%	-0.92%
VA	2,714	3,193	17.6%	1,437	52.96%	1,217	44.85%	1,717	53.77%	1,455	45.56%	0.81%	0.71%
SC	1,372	1,616	17.8%	786	57.30%	566	41.23%	938	58.06%	662	40.96%	0.76%	-0.27%

WA	2,460	2,857	16.2%	1,109	45.08%	1,248	50.73%	1,305	45.67%	1,510	52.86%	0.59%	2.13%
AK	275	312	13.3%	167	60.84%	79	28.71%	191	61.22%	111	35.61%	0.38%	6.89%
DC	201	227	13.2%	18	9.01%	172	85.72%	21	9.37%	203	89.43%	0.36%	3.72%
ND	280	313	11.9%	175	62.53%	95	34.08%	197	62.86%	111	35.50%	0.33%	1.42%
OH	4,655	5,625	20.8%	2,351	50.51%	2,186	46.96%	2,860	50.84%	2,741	48.73%	0.33%	1.77%

NH	562	676	20.3%	274	48.67%	266	47.38%	331	48.99%	341	50.35%	0.32%	2.97%
OR	1,511	1,828	20.9%	714	47.22%	720	47.66%	867	47.42%	943	51.60%	0.21%	3.94%
CO	1,713	2,128	24.2%	884	51.58%	738	43.09%	1,101	51.76%	1,002	47.08%	0.18%	4.00%
NV	597	826	38.4%	302	50.55%	280	46.93%	419	50.70%	397	48.09%	0.14%	1.16%
ME	644	741	15.1%	287	44.53%	320	49.71%	330	44.58%	397	53.57%	0.05%	3.87%

NC	2,889	3,501	21.2%	1,631	56.46%	1,258	43.54%	1,961	56.02%	1,526	43.59%	-0.44%	0.05%
WY	213	243	14.0%	148	69.44%	60	28.39%	168	69.00%	71	29.13%	-0.44%	0.74%
ID	488	598	22.7%	337	69.06%	139	28.42%	409	68.39%	181	30.26%	-0.67%	1.85%
MT	402	450	12.1%	240	59.78%	137	34.13%	266	59.07%	174	38.57%	-0.72%	4.43%
SD	310	388	25.4%	191	61.61%	119	38.39%	233	59.91%	149	38.44%	-1.70%	0.06%

VT	289	311	7.5%	120	41.42%	149	51.53%	121	38.98%	184	59.22%	-2.44%	7.68%
	

 
 

[GetTheRightVote]

1. Being a woman, I hope the young women in this country are not that dumb

:kick:

[PROGRESSIVE1]

5. I know of four young women who voted for *.

Sad. From my questioning, "Terrorism" played a major factor in their votes.

[Carolab]

11. Married or single? n/t

[PROGRESSIVE1]

15. 3 single, 1 married.

[TruthIsAll]

14. Unbelieveable Bush % share of new voters compared to 2000 vote

	2000	2004	Pct	2004	Pct	2004	Pct	Bush	Kerry	Bush%	Bush%
State	Votes	Votes	Chg	Bush	Vote	Kerry	Vote	2004r	2004	Incr	2000
HI	365	429	17.6%	194	45.3%	232	54.0%	56.3	26.4	68.1%	37.8%
RI	405	436	7.6%	169	38.8%	260	59.6%	38.5	10.3	79.0%	32.2%
NJ	3,168	3,610	14.0%	1,668	46.2%	1,911	52.9%	383.8	122.6	75.8%	40.5%
AL	1,652	1,883	13.9%	1,176	62.5%	694	36.9%	235.2	1.3	99.4%	57.0%
TN	2,063	2,437	18.1%	1,384	56.8%	1,036	42.5%	322.4	54.8	85.5%	51.5%

CT	1,442	1,579	9.5%	694	43.9%	857	54.3%	132.7	41.4	76.2%	38.9%
NY	6,755	7,389	9.4%	2,963	40.1%	4,314	58.4%	559.2	206.6	73.0%	35.6%
OK	1,219	1,464	20.1%	960	65.6%	504	34.4%	215.5	29.7	87.9%	61.1%
MA	2,669	2,905	8.9%	1,074	37.0%	1,804	62.1%	195.6	187.3	51.1%	32.9%
WV	643	756	17.6%	424	56.1%	327	43.2%	87.3	31.0	73.8%	52.4%

DE	326	375	15.2%	172	45.8%	200	53.4%	34.4	20.1	63.1%	42.2%
LA	1,741	1,939	11.4%	1,102	56.8%	820	42.3%	174.3	28.0	86.2%	53.3%
UT	754	927	22.9%	664	71.6%	241	26.0%	148.6	38.1	79.6%	68.3%
AZ	1,513	2,013	33.1%	1,104	54.9%	894	44.4%	322.6	208.2	60.8%	51.7%
KS	1,058	1,188	12.3%	736	62.0%	435	36.6%	114.1	35.7	76.2%	58.8%

NE	690	777	12.6%	513	66.0%	254	32.7%	79.0	22.5	77.8%	62.9%
FL	5,923	7,604	28.4%	3,965	52.1%	3,584	47.1%	1051.7	671.3	61.0%	49.2%
KY	1,535	1,796	17.0%	1,069	59.6%	713	39.7%	196.9	73.8	72.7%	56.9%
MD	2,013	2,384	18.4%	1,025	43.0%	1,334	56.0%	210.9	188.7	52.8%	40.4%
IN	2,166	2,468	13.9%	1,479	59.9%	969	39.3%	233.6	67.0	77.7%	57.5%

MO	2,340	2,731	16.7%	1,456	53.3%	1,259	46.1%	265.8	148.0	64.2%	50.9%
CA	10,847	12,392	14.2%	5,510	44.5%	6,745	54.4%	942.4	884.3	51.6%	42.1%
GA	2,549	3,299	29.4%	1,914	58.0%	1,366	41.4%	494.5	249.9	66.4%	55.7%
AR	909	1,056	16.1%	573	54.3%	469	44.4%	99.8	45.9	68.5%	52.0%
NM	594	756	27.2%	377	49.8%	371	49.0%	90.5	84.2	51.8%	48.2%

PA	4,870	5,766	18.4%	2,794	48.5%	2,938	51.0%	512.7	452.1	53.1%	46.8%
IL	4,712	5,275	11.9%	2,346	44.5%	2,892	54.8%	326.2	303.0	51.8%	42.9%
MN	2,405	2,823	17.4%	1,347	47.7%	1,445	51.2%	237.0	276.7	46.1%	46.1%
TX	6,371	7,410	16.3%	4,527	61.1%	2,833	38.2%	727.3	399.0	64.6%	59.6%
MI	4,208	4,838	15.0%	2,314	47.8%	2,479	51.2%	360.6	308.8	53.9%	46.4%

WI	2,574	2,993	16.3%	1,478	49.4%	1,490	49.8%	240.8	246.5	49.4%	48.1%
IA	1,302	1,505	15.6%	752	50.0%	742	49.3%	117.6	103.4	53.2%	48.7%
MS	986	1,138	15.5%	673	59.1%	457	40.1%	99.8	52.2	65.7%	58.1%
VA	2,714	3,193	17.6%	1,717	53.8%	1,455	45.6%	279.5	237.5	54.1%	53.0%
SC	1,372	1,616	17.8%	938	58.1%	662	41.0%	152.0	96.1	61.3%	57.3%

WA	2,460	2,857	16.2%	1,305	45.7%	1,510	52.9%	196.0	262.5	42.7%	45.1%
AK	275	312	13.3%	191	61.2%	111	35.6%	23.5	32.0	42.3%	60.8%
DC	201	227	13.2%	21	9.4%	203	89.4%	3.2	31.0	9.3%	9.0%
ND	280	313	11.9%	197	62.9%	111	35.5%	21.8	15.8	58.0%	62.5%
OH	4,655	5,625	20.8%	2,860	50.8%	2,741	48.7%	508.6	555.0	47.8%	50.5%

NH	562	676	20.3%	331	49.0%	341	50.4%	57.7	74.2	43.8%	48.7%
OR	1,511	1,828	20.9%	867	47.4%	943	51.6%	153.3	222.8	40.8%	47.2%
CO	1,713	2,128	24.2%	1,101	51.8%	1,002	47.1%	217.5	263.5	45.2%	51.6%
NV	597	826	38.4%	419	50.7%	397	48.1%	117.1	117.2	50.0%	50.6%
ME	644	741	15.1%	330	44.6%	397	53.6%	43.6	76.9	36.2%	44.5%

NC	2,889	3,501	21.2%	1,961	56.0%	1,526	43.6%	330.0	268.2	55.2%	56.5%
WY	213	243	14.0%	168	69.0%	71	29.1%	19.7	10.3	65.7%	69.4%
ID	488	598	22.7%	409	68.4%	181	30.3%	72.3	42.5	63.0%	69.1%
MT	402	450	12.1%	266	59.1%	174	38.6%	25.9	36.6	41.4%	59.8%
SD	310	388	25.4%	233	59.9%	149	38.4%	41.9	30.4	57.9%	61.6%

VT	289	311	7.5%	121	39.0%	184	59.2%	1.4	35.0	3.9%	41.4%
Total	104339	122171	17.1%	62,029	50.8%	59,026	48.3%	11572.8	8026.3	59.0%	47.9%

[tigereye]

2. fear appeared to be a powerful motivator

and somehow * managed to paint Kerry as untrustworthy. Ironic, no?

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

3. they may have voted for Bush

maybe so?

It is horrible to think.

[TruthIsAll]

8. Kerry won the female vote by 54-46%. nt

.

[zann725]

13. That sounds about right to me.

n/t

[TheFarseer]

4. I think it's funny

"bush voters were to embarrassed to tell an exit poller they voted for bush" sounds like a ringing endorsement!

[imenja]

6. single women vote Democratic

They are the largest Democratic demographic (leaving aside race, eg. African-Americans, and ethnicity, Jews). Single women vote overwhelmingly Democratic when they vote. Unfortunately they are also the group least likely to vote. This information was provided in the exit polls results that specified demographic factors. I remember seeing it on the CNN website.

This makes complete sense when you think of general voting trends: Women broke for Kerry, men for Bush. Married people broke for Bush, and singles for Kerry.

[Botany]

7. Sure, and .....

..... Perry County, Ohio had precincts with 124% turn out ......
bottom line the #s just do not add up.

:bounce:

[imenja]

9. That point isn't reflected in the numbers you site

Those numbers only tell the percentage of vote that went for Kerry and Bush in each state compared to 2000. It doesn't say how likely Republicans or Democrats were to speak with voters. I don't know if something like that can even be measured. You would need a calculation based on numbers of people who declined to speak with exit posters. Naturally Republican precincts reflect higher percentages of responses for Bush, just as Democratic precincts indicate higher levels of responses for Kerry. What the numbers can't tell us is a percentage of those not polled and how they voted.
The exit pollsters are assuming less Republicans responded to their surveys as a way to reconcile the exit poll numbers with the official vote count. It seems to me that is an assumption that is very difficult if not impossible to prove. Similarly your point that Republicans were more likely to respond, implying that Democrats responded in lower numbers than they actually voted, isn't demonstrated by the numbers above.

[TruthIsAll]

10. It is not MY point. You have not read the uscountvotes.org paper.

I am not trying to prove anything.

The uscountvotes.com paper (Dr. Freeman, et al) rebuts the Mitofsky claim that Democrats were more apt to speak to the pollsters.

In fact, in Mitofsky's 77-page report, analyzed by Freeman, shows that Bush voters were actually MORE motivated to speak to the exit pollsters.

The "Reluctant Bush Responder" theory has been totally debunked by 10 Math/Stat Ph'ds in the uscountvotes.org paper.

I suggest you read the report.

Here is a new article written by Dr. Freeman and Josh Mittledorf, who teaches statistics at Temple University.
http://www.inthesetimes.com/site/main/article/1970

[imenja]

12. your original post makes no reference to that report

so how was I to know that was what you were addressing? You provided a series of numbers that did not relate to the point you were making. Why?

If you read my post, you'll see I did not make an argument about reluctant responders. In fact, I expressed skepticism that such a thing can be known.

I thank you for the link and I'll have a look at it.

On edit: I read the article, and this is the same information that has been repeated since right after the election. The accuracy of any poll depends on the methods by which it was carried out. I thought analysts were trying to get their hands on the original surveys taken on election day in order to examine the methods? Do you know if they have managed to see the original data?

[Al-CIAda]

16. Thom Hartmann just spent an hour of his show

discussing this and other issues surrounding the undeniable, provable ELECTION FRAUD.

[Peace Patriot]

17. imenja: Something else Freeman did was to put together a predictable...

...vote for Kerry. Gore 2000 voters + HUGE Democratic blowout in new voter registrations (Dem 57% vs Repub 41%) + HUGE jump of Nader voters to Kerry = 4 to 8 million votes that Kerry should have gotten, and didn't, in the official tally.

When you have such a huge Dem voter registration success--driven by huge grass movement to oust Bush--it is utterly nonsensical to presume that new voters were FLOCKING to the Democratic Party to vote for George Bush (!), or that the families, friends, co-workers and grass roots volunteers who were urging them to register Democratic and vote for the first time, would themselves be voting for Bush.

That's "Alice in Wonderland"--the Red Queen ordering all the white flowers to be PAINTED red.

So...where did Bush's margin come from? It didn't come from Republicans, right? They had very poor new voter registration compared to the Democrats. It didn't come from new voters, who were mostly Democrats. It didn't come from Nader voters.

His "margin" obviously came from the Red Queen.

[Trish1168]

18. I hate the MSM

Why does no one talk about this stuff? Why does no one investigate this stuff?

Based on what's happening in Georgia, with the voter movement and based on what Howard Dean said (that the number 1 issue voters discuss with him is vote reform)....we're not the only ones bothered and scared.

Yet, the MSM is so frickin' dismissive. Is it that they're scared of the repubs? Or is it that they're catering to their coporate status? Or is it that they can't spend time on it because their own cutbacks have them stretched to thin?

I think its a combo. Will the truth never come out?