Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

The Nashua Advocate: USCV Report Drops Bombshell -- Mitofsky Is Wrong

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
 
nashuaadvocate Donating Member (514 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 03:01 PM
Original message
The Nashua Advocate: USCV Report Drops Bombshell -- Mitofsky Is Wrong
Folks, this one is big.

Find the article here.

The News Editor
The Nashua Advocate
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
RaulVB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 03:13 PM
Response to Original message
1. Guys, THIS IS THE BIG ONE!
The report was posted here (the link), but indeed is THE BIG ONE.

Send this to the MSM. Keep it visible.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
SpaceBuddy008 Donating Member (206 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 03:40 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. supposed popular vote total is hangup for those on the fence
but analysis of national exit polls by du member TruthisAll shows the extent of the fraud

it is summarized here in this excellent footnoted overview article by canadian!

The Strange Death of American Democracy:
Endgame in Ohio
by Michael Keefer
www.globalresearch.ca 24 January 2005
The URL of this article is: http://globalresearch.ca/articles/KEE501A.html

I am not going to rehearse here any part of the rapidly accumulating body of analyses that shows Republican electoral fraud to have been carried out in many other states from coast to coast with much the same energy and inventiveness as in Ohio.<61> For as the mathematician who posts his analyses of exit poll data at the Democratic Underground site under the name 'TruthIsAll' has intimated, and as Dr. Steven F. Freeman has shown in a major new study which he has kindly shared with me in draft form, there is a simpler way of showing that, in the big picture, the numbers which underlie Bush's supposed victory in the popular vote simply don't add up.<62>

In comparison to the election of 2000, there were two dramatic changes in 2004: an increase of some 14 percent in the total number of votes cast (which rose from 105,405,000 in 2000 to 120,255,000 in 2004), and a significant decline in the proportion of votes cast for third-party candidates (which sank from 3,949,000 in 2000 to 1,170,000 in 2004). According to the national exit poll data made available by CNN on the evening of November 2nd, 83 percent of those who voted in 2004 had also voted in 2000. This means, in slightly different terms, that nearly 100 million people who voted in 2000, or close to 95 percent of the 2000 voters, also cast ballots in 2004.<63> In the 2004 exit poll, 13,047 randomly selected respondents stated that they had voted as follows:



Bush Kerry


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gore 2000 voters: 8% 91%

Bush 2000 voters: 90% 10%

Other 2000 voters: 17% 64%

New voters: 41% 57%






Al Gore, remember, won the popular vote in 2000 by almost 544,000 votes (50,999,897 votes to George Bush's 50,456,002). Assuming that the 8 percent of Gore voters who migrated to Bush's camp in 2004 more or less cancel out the 10 percent of Bush-2000 voters who swung to Kerry, one can take the base number of supporters for Bush and Kerry in 2004 as amounting to 95 percent of the Republican and Democratic presidential vote tallies in 2000--or, in round numbers, 48.4 million votes for Kerry and 47.9 million votes for Bush.

If 95 percent of the 3,949,000 who voted for third-party candidates in 2000 also voted in 2004, then given that 64 percent of these people voted for Kerry and 17 percent for Bush, that, in round numbers, would add 2.3 million votes to Kerry's expected total and 600,000 to Bush's, raising them to 50.7 million for Kerry and 48.5 million for Bush.

Add in the 20.2 million new voters, 57 percent of whose ballots, according to the exit poll, went to Kerry, and 41 percent to Bush. That means 11.5 million additional votes for Kerry, and 8.3 million additional votes for Bush. The final expected total comes out to 62.2 million votes for Kerry, and 56.8 million expected votes for Bush.

Compare these numbers to the official results: 61,194,773 votes (or 51 percent of the total votes cast) for George W. Bush, and 57,890,314 (or 48 percent) for John Kerry. The discrepancies are striking: Bush appears to have received 4.4 million more votes than he should have, and Kerry 4.3 million fewer than he should have.

The magic--as Congressman Peter King, whom I quoted at the outset, evidently understood--is in the counting. As a large and growing body of evidence makes clear, the official tallies of the 2004 presidential election are to an unprecedented degree distorted by fraud, much of it carried out through widespread and systematic tampering with electronic vote-tabulation machines.

*****
Can Anyone Explain This? - Congressman Peter King, Republican, NY: “It’s already over. The election’s over, we won.” - Voice: “How do you know that?” - King: “It’s all over but the counting, and we’ll take care of the counting!”
http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/IMAGES/peterking.mov

from this compilation of election shenanigans
http://tvnewslies.org/html/election_2004.html
*****
Arkansas in 2004: Did Bush Really Win?
by Max Standridge
January 24, 2005

Past Election Patterns, Pre-Election, Tracking and Exit Poll Patterns, Bill Clinton, Vote Discrepancies, Undervotes, and A "Convenient" Power Failure in Little Rock, All Combine to Suggest Otherwise

To any or all: Were computer technicians employed to re-boot and re-activate the computers after the power failure? If so, what companies were the technicians affiliated with, and do you have any records as to their names, schedules and activities that day? Do you have any contact information for the elections offices personnel in the West Little Rock polling places that were affected that day, and/or any contact information as to the computer technicians employed to ensure proper re-activation of the affected computers?

Do you have any data as to how wide an area of computer data statewide would have been affected by such a power failure?

http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2005/1119

...and the report from georgia which had gone democratic in every election since 1832 and ended when diebold showed up in 2002 and on and on and on...

we must recall any officials who hold office through manipulation of the voting process.

STOP! Extremist End-Timers
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
RaulVB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Yep, excellent article
That shows how it is impossible to "justify" "*" numbers.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
nodictators Donating Member (977 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 04:16 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. The Keefer article is WRONG
83% of the 120 million 2004-voters is 99.6 million. So, did all the Bush and Gore voters come back to vote in 2004? Glad to hear that none of them died in the intervening 4 years.

Doing an analysis from a small-sample poll item is nuts!

Stick with the work by Dr. Freeman and Simon&Baiman (sp?) Their work is legit.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 05:19 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. You are way off base. There is absolutely nothing wrong with
using PRISTINE Exit Poll (13,047 sample) demographic data to explain how new voters voted.

As far as your other argument: we see dead people also.

And more Republicans must have died than Democrats.
After all, they are older, aren't they?

In many ways, this is the most powerful analysis of all.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
RaulVB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #3
5. Yep, excellent article
That shows how it is impossible to "justify" "*" numbers.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 03:29 PM
Response to Original message
2. I've been saying that from day one.
We were blocked at every turn trying to get data in Florida.

I had people who were working in precincts tell me that an unusual step was added to the counting process (on ES&S machines)that was never used in the past. When the polls were closed, first they did an audit of the machines, and then a count. My computer expert said thats the step you take to change the results.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
dbDESIGN Donating Member (47 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 04:32 PM
Response to Original message
7. Sadly even in the face of scientific evidence there are
those who will happily explain the irrational election results in terms of it being "God's hand" that tipped the outcome. I've seen a couple of individuals quoted on the net (sorry no links) who have expressed this opinion. I guess if you can believe in Creationism and a 6000 year old Earth believing God fixed the election for his anointed one is not so difficult.

And don't get me started about the Dominionists behind the vote counting companies. Even as they cheat they tell themselves they are doing God's work!

See:

http://www.yuricareport.com/Dominionism/TheDespoilingOfAmerica.htm

http://www.theocracywatch.org/

And from

http://cannonfire.blogspot.com/2004_08_22_cannonfire_archive.html

"Funding for ES&S has come from such figures as Carolyn Hunt, of Texas’ ultra-right Hunt family, and Howard Ahmanson, a tireless promoter of far-right and evangelical causes. Ahmanson also supports the Chalcedon Institute, a bastion of the Christian Reconstruction movement, which advocates the replacement of secular democracy with theocracy."

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 04:59 PM
Response to Original message
8. Steven Freeman adds all this up very neatly in a chart, in his...
...seond paper on the Exit Polls. I read a draft of the paper. (It is no longer available on the internet because he has contracted to publish it as a book, with Seven Stories Press, in May. )

Table 2.2. Expected Presidential Votes based on Changes From the 2000 Election

----------Dem (G or K)-----------Bush --------------3rd Party--------Tot

2000:----50,999,897 (48%)---50,456,002 (48%)---3,949,201 (4%)---105,405,100
2004:----57,890,314 (48%)---61,194,773 (51%)---1,170,071 (1%)---120,255,158

Increase:---6,890,417--------10,738,771----minus(2,779,130)-----14,850,058 (14%)


(Distributing the votes on a reasonable expectation formula:)

(1) 95%
of 00 vote----48,400,00------47,900,000---------3,800,000------100,000,000

(2) 3rd
Party -----2,300,000 (64%)------600,000 (17%)
-----------------------------------------------New voters: 20,200,000

(3) New
Voters
distrib'ed ----11,500,000 (57%)---8,300,000 (41%)

Expected
Total --------62,200,000-------56,800,000


Discre-
pancy --------(4,300,000)-------4,400.000

Freeman explains this very simply in his section entitled, "The Numbers Don’t Add Up." He says that, in 2000, Gore won the pop vote by more than half a million, but in 2004, Bush beat Kerry by 3.3 million—yet there were only two major changes in the voting population: 1) the 3rd party vote declined by 2.8 million, and 2) get-out-the-vote campaigns. 95% of the 2000 electorate voted in the 2004 election. That gives Kerry a base of 48.4 million (Gore voters), and Bush 47.9 million. Election night polls showed that Kerry got 64% of ex-Nader voters (2.5 million) and Bush got only 17% (600,000). In 2004, Dems beat Repubs in new voter registration by 57% to 41%. And when you add these three blocks of voters together—the base vote from 2000, the 3rd Party vote, and new voter registration—"…it looks as though Kerry somehow received 4,300,000 votes less than he should have, and Bush somehow received over 4,400,000 votes more than he should have."

-----

Freeman's 2nd paper is no longer available at:
http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/epdiscrep.htm

He has a link to write to him, to request a copy, at:
http://www.appliedresearch.us/sf/hypotheses.htm

(Since this information has been circulating at DU for some time, I thought it was okay to give this small excerpt from the much longer paper, which mostly deals with Mitofsky and his various absurdities about why the Exit Polls were "wrong." One of Freeman's main assertions in this paper is that there is no good reason why the "official count" should be trusted and the Exit Polls distrusted. The above info. is evidence apart from the Exit Polls that the official count could well be wrong.)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
nashuaadvocate Donating Member (514 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 10:23 PM
Response to Reply #8
24. Thanks for the heads up! We can't wait to see it! n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
drummer55 Donating Member (306 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 05:06 PM
Response to Original message
9. damn! keep this mutha kicked and forward it to your reps and senators!
go baby go!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 05:25 PM
Response to Original message
11. Excellent again... but this just underlines what's been on this board...

...for two months. No way to reconstruct the election in order for Bush to win - that's the bottom line. Everything else is smoke.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
mdb Donating Member (398 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 05:34 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. Agree...
but how do you make sense of something if you don't keep trying to make sense of it?

Add all that and try to figure out why Repubs would turn out more heavily in 2004 than in 2000 for Bush?

Bush racked up more votes than registered Republicans in 47 out of 67 counties in Florida. In 15 of those counties, his vote total more than doubled the number of registered Republicans and in four counties, Bush more than tripled the number.

http://residentbush.com/Aftermath-2004_Parry.html
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
anaxarchos Donating Member (963 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-31-05 12:29 AM
Response to Reply #14
27. In the heart of Democratic vote territory, Broward county...

The number of those voting went up by a third, Democrats out registered Republicans 4 to 1, and despite some issues with GOTV, the early vote was overwhelmingly Democratic. Nevertheless, the Democratic margin was about the same as 2000.

Oh yeah, and total turnout went from one of the highest in the state to mediocre...

This in a largely suburban county...

I would think the Republicans would want to describe how they pulled off this miracle if for no other reason than to repeat their success, no?



Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DELUSIONAL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 05:27 PM
Response to Original message
12. kick
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 05:34 PM
Response to Original message
13. Great. I sent it over to Mike Rivero at whatreallyhappened.com nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
rumpel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 05:35 PM
Response to Original message
15. Kerry said today that 60% of independents voted for him on Meet The Press
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
KatieB Donating Member (431 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 11:23 PM
Response to Reply #15
25. I know 2 indys in my neighborhood in NC - all voted Kerry
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 06:05 PM
Response to Original message
16. "Confortable living and easy authority" !
LOL! I used to teach at Cal. I must have missed that part :)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
nashuaadvocate Donating Member (514 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 06:30 PM
Response to Reply #16
17. Hey there...
...just so you know: that's not how we feel -- but, given that we're hoping some "red-staters" are reading The Advocate, we know some of them are distrustful of academics. And we recognize that their "elite"/"unquestioned" status is resented by some, for the reasons we cited.

-- TNE
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 06:49 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. Sure. I was just kidding. I can only imagine how "academics"
get read by some people.

And the funny thing is, all the folks I worked with at Cal came from UNION families, from the dept head on down. Berkeley, a different planet.

:tinfoilhat:



Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 06:53 PM
Response to Reply #17
20. TNE, do you have the facility to make the articles emailable?

I don't know much about that site, but I usually email the link to the SoCal Greens, to my SF network and to others.

Some people would rather get the text than the link (rolling my energetic eye).
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
nashuaadvocate Donating Member (514 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 07:16 PM
Response to Reply #20
23. I'll look into it n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 06:45 PM
Response to Original message
18. Excellent stuff...
Reading it now
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
althecat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 06:57 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. Love this bit especially...
Edited on Sun Jan-30-05 06:59 PM by althecat
"In this context, USCountVotes affirms our mission to
create and analyze a database containing precinct-level election results for the entire United States in order
to do a thorough mathematical analysis of the 2004 election results."

and from their website

"Our Response: USCountVotes proposes to create and analyze - for the first time ever - a database containing precinct-level election results for the entire United States. This rich mine of data will be made publicly available and analyzed by our project's affiliated mathematicians, pollsters and statisticians, as well as by an independent peer-review board. Our goal is to use this data to develop and test techniques to reliably detect precinct-level vote counting errors worthy of investigation.

By the national election in November 2006, for the first time in American history, it could be possible for candidates to be reliably warned of indications of machine or human-caused vote count errors in time to challenge the results. With a sound scientific approach and methodology, it may be possible for USCountVotes' project staff to develop statistical evidence in support of legal filings and serve as expert witnesses for candidates, regardless of party affiliation."

FANDAMBLOODYTASTIC!!!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 07:01 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. Yes! And the storm builds n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
KatieB Donating Member (431 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jan-30-05 11:24 PM
Response to Reply #21
26. Man - these guys are getting my money...excellent mission
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-31-05 01:08 AM
Response to Reply #26
28. If you know any programmers, or just web researchers, send them our way.
We need volunteers. There is a LOT of coding to do to make USCountVotes happen. If they want to work on the "Open Source" end, they can sign up to USCVprogs at the first URL. If not, they can sign up on the general USCountVotes lists (second URL). The first develops general software for future use, the second set of lists actually mines for data and works on any current urgent tasks Kathy comes up with.

http://uscvprogs.sourceforge.net/

http://www.uscountvotes.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=61&Itemid=68


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-31-05 02:02 AM
Response to Reply #28
29. kick
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-31-05 02:13 AM
Response to Reply #28
30. It's late, skids, but I'm going to make a note to distribute the
need for volunteers. I got into this entirely by fury on 11/2 after MoveOn repeatedly told me not to worry. Maybe wishful thinking more than anything. Anyway, thanks for what you guys are doing and in the morning, I'll spread the word around.

Cheers,
Beth
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-31-05 02:37 AM
Response to Reply #30
31. Thank you. We do need a "geek outreach" person too...
In addition to general publicity on political forums, unless KingOfTheJungle pops back up, we do need someone who regularly engages in OpenSource to go around and plug us on various mailing lists and forums related to OpenSource development. If anyone who knows their way around the "scene" has the time to do so, please PM me. Or just run with it and go apeshit :-)




Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
RaulVB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Jan-31-05 06:34 PM
Response to Original message
32. Kick (n/t)
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Mon Apr 29th 2024, 07:24 PM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC