GRAPH: Kerry state exit poll deviations as a % of Margin of Error

[TruthIsAll]

This graph gives a clear picture of which states deviated the most relative to the MOE.

We calculate the ratio for each state:
X = 100* Exit Poll Deviation / MOE.
If X is greater than 100, then the exit poll MOE is exceeded.

At the 95% confidence level, the probability of this occuring for either Bush or Kerry is 2.50% (5% for both). So the odds are 1 in 40 that the Bush vote in any given state would exceed the exit poll margin of error.

But fifteen (15) out of 43 states deviated beyond the MOE for Bush (X exceeded 100). NH (203) had the largest deviation, followed by NC (197).

The 15 states in descending values of X:
NH, NC, SC, FL, NY,
OH, PA, DE, MN, VT,
AK, WI, UT, AL, NE

SEVEN of the 15 are BATTLEGROUND STATES.

The odds of 15 or more states (excluding DC) exceeding the Exit Poll MOE is less than 1 in a trillion.

Four (4) states were within striking distance of the MOE (100):
AZ 98, RI 97, MA 97, CT 95.

If just two of them had exceeded the MOE, then for 17 states, the odds of exceeding the MOE would fall to 1 in 257 trillion.

None of the eight states which deviated in Kerry's favor approached 100. Texas (61) deviated the most to Kerry.

[Behind the Aegis]

1. not surprising

Why is this not news? Send it to the foreign press and let them have a go at it. No one in the American media has the knowledge, talent, or balls to investigate this! Free elections in Iraq? We can't even get them here!

[Lisabtrucking]

2. Kerry won, we all know that, but the media has people thinking

he didn't. Just look at the inaugural parade there was no one in the stands when the protesters left. Now that is a president with over 3 million more votes? I don't think so. I believe when they start working on the data bases they will start finding more fraud, but they won't start doing that until no one is looking.