Dr. Freeman's Study Numbers Refined

[L. Coyote]

Dr. Freeman e-mailed his spreadsheet with the adjusted numbers. Apparently, a second decimal place was used for some of the exit poll data. Here follows derived data with greater accuracy than some previous DU threads provided.

State	P Kerry	V Kerry		Diff K
AL	40.480	37.0775		-3.402
AK	38.760	36.1705		-2.590
AZ	46.710	44.7405		-1.970
AR	46.130	45.0273		-1.103
CA	54.640	55.2060		0.566
CO	48.120	47.3491		-0.771
CT	57.650	55.2373		-2.413
DC	89.800	90.6315		0.832
DE	57.270	53.8173		-3.453
FL	49.700	47.4692		-2.231
GA	42.920	41.5822		-1.338
HI	53.320	54.3731		1.053
ID	32.850	30.7074		-2.143
IL	56.560	54.9934		-1.567
IN	40.560	39.4559		-1.104
IA	49.700	49.5439		-0.156
KS	34.100	36.9697		2.870
KY	40.160	39.9941		-0.166
LA	43.850	42.6260		-1.224
ME	53.770	54.4792		0.709
MD	56.160	56.2490		0.089
MA	65.160	62.7007		-2.459
MI	51.500	51.7336		0.234
MN	53.520	51.7642		-1.756
MS	43.000	39.9057		-3.094
MO	47.000	46.3268		-0.673
MT	37.510	39.5052		1.995
NE	36.000	32.5327		-3.467
NV	49.160	48.6659		-0.494
NH	54.940	50.6835		-4.256
NJ	54.700	53.1272		-1.573
NM	50.080	49.4165		-0.664
NY	62.750	58.7934		-3.957
NC	46.640	43.7148		-2.925
ND	32.570	36.0862		3.516
OH	52.060	48.7492		-3.311
OK	34.560	34.4378		-0.122
OR	50.250	51.9688		1.719
PA	54.120	51.1300		-2.990
RI	62.650	60.4817		-2.168
SC	45.130	41.3047		-3.825
SD	36.470	39.0877		2.618
TN	40.560	42.7796		2.220
TX	36.300	38.4897		2.190
UT	29.080	27.0608		-2.019
VT	63.650	60.3360		-3.314
VA	47.000	45.6488		-1.351
WA	53.480	53.5981		0.118
WV	44.530	43.4772		-1.053
WI	49.240	50.1991		0.959
WY	30.940	29.7036		-1.236

[DeepGreen]

1. What do the numbers tell us ? Is there a link to help me understand?

I think I missed something in relation to a conclusion.
Thanks

[L. Coyote]

3. The difference between the exit poll and the vote

with the last column showing the difference for Kerry.

This is posted to provide greater accuracy than numbers posted earlier in threads by others.

No conclusion, just better raw data to work.

So many threads on exit polls, so little examination of the accuracy of the data used to make conclusions!! I got the numbers directly from Dr. Freeman.

On average, the discrepancy numbers are nearly one percent different than numbers posted on DU. Many of those numbers were rounded to the nearest percent. And then grandiose conclusions were spouted!

[DeepGreen]

4. Thanks

[k8conant]

2. This appears to be about the Red shift between the exit polls and

the vote.

P Kerry = Poll % for Kerry
V Kerry = Vote % for Kerry

diff = P Kerry - V Kerry

[Pam-Moby]

5. Does it say at what

time this raw data was taken? Was this at 7:30 pm or earlier.

[L. Coyote]

7. You can download Dr. Freeman's study.

The numbers should be considered within the context of the study.

Here is the link: The Unexplained Exit Poll Discrepancy.

This is a PDF file, so I put them up here. You can copy and paste the data directly into Excel. And Dr. Freeman won't get flooded with requests.

[Pam-Moby]

8. Ok thanks

[Carolab]

6. Yeah, they skimmed votes where Kerry was winning by a lot

Like my home state of Minnesota. He was supposed to win by a LOT more. We use mainly optically scanned ballots, too. I KNOW there was mischief here, especially since our SOS Mary Kiffmeyer is such a republican tool and tried so many tactics to suppress the Dem vote (like terror scares, changing registration forms, trying to stop same-day registration, etc.)

Look at New York, too. You KNOW they swiped some from there.

And if there had been a full recount in New Hampshire you'd have seen some weirdness there, too. Did they actually hand count and match to the poll books there? I read somewhere that people were driving in from out of state and voting in New Hampshire (college kids).

Look at PA, VT and CT. In CA, just a half a percent is a sizeable amount, and he probably actually won by more than what was predicted.