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Edited on Wed Nov-03-04 10:18 AM by DemFromMem
For all the talk of a realignment in the Jewish vote in this election, there is now evidence that the Jewish vote has not shifted at all. Kerry took the lion's share of the Jewish vote in numbers that are consistent with how Democrats have done with Jewish voters for most of the last 75 years. Historically, the Democrat can take his popular vote percentage and add 25 to 30 percent to determine the Jewish vote. The only deviations from this in the last 25 years have been with President Clinton who did a little better than normal in each of his elections. How did Bush do? According to Voter News Service, he garnered 24% of the Jewish vote, 5% better than in 2000. However, Kerry's 76% is 28% higher than his popular vote total. It seemed like this year was probably the Republicans' best chance in decades to break the bond between the Jewish community and the Democratic Party, but a 50 point spread certainly indicates that they have not moved at all.
The result in Florida was particularly interesting as some of the commentators were attributing Bush's comfortable victory there to Jewish voters not voting for Kerry in the numbers needed. Kerry carried Florida's Jewish voters by an 80 to 20 margin. In California, Kerry led Jewish voters by 79% to 19%. In New York, Kerry received 80%, Bush 18% and Nader 2%. In New Jersey, Jewish voters supported Kerry by a 75% to 24% margin.
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