Two new general election polls show Labour sinking to new lows

[LSdemocrat]

MORI shows Labour falling into the teens, tied at 18% with the Lib Dems:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2158
"The record for Labour’s lowest ever score in the polls seems to be getting broken anew every time a new poll comes out. Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has been released as has topline figures, with changes from their last poll, of CON 40%(-1), LAB 18%(-10!), LDEM 18%(-4).

As with other recent Westminster polls, there is a high level of support for “other” parties. Here it is divided between 6% for the Greens, 7% for UKIP, 4% for the BNP and 4% for the SNP & PC."

ICM shows Labour falling into third place, three points behind the Lib Dems:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2153
"I’ve been speculating about it for a couple of months, but in the Sunday Telegraph tomorrow we finally see a poll (as suspected from ICM, who tend to give the Liberal Democrats their highest levels of support) putting Labout in third place. The topline figures, with changes from ICM’s last poll, of CON 40%(+1), LAB 22%(-6), LDEM 25%(+5). The Lib Dems caught Labour as recently as 2003, after the Brent East by-election, but as far I can see one has to go back to 1987 to find them ahead of Labour."

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. But then: " ComRes show collapse in Conservative support"

ComRes has a new poll in tomorrow’s Independent with, for want of a better description, frankly odd results. The topline figures with changes from ComRes’s last poll are CON 30%(-10), LAB 22%(+1), LDEM 18%(nc).

These results are clearly grossly out of line with other companies - why? The reason isn’t a change in opinion, this poll was conducted at exactly the same time as MORI’s poll. Over at Political Betting Mike Smithson is focusing on ComRes’s past vote weighting, which has shifted significantly in Labour’s favour this month. Unlike Populus and ICM, whose political weightings are practically static from month to month - thus fulfilling the purpose of ensuring that the political make up of each month’s sample is stable - ComRes’s seem to change from one month to the next.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2159

:shrug: I think the outrage felt by people about expenses varies a lot, both between people and day, as one politician or another takes their place in the stocks.

Which all makes the European/county elections on Thursday a huge lottery, possibly. It'll be interesting to see if the Telegraph keeps concentrating on individual cases right up to the poll.

[T_i_B]

2. The polls are indeed all over the place.

We shall just have to see what happens on Thursday.

[LeftishBrit]

3. Indeed...

And given that turnout is usually fairly low in Euro-elections and Council elections, compared with General Elections, the results are hard to predict.

I just hope the hard-right, especially the BNP, don't make gains.

[non sociopath skin]

4. The only positive outcome from that ....

... might be to galvanise the left and centre-left.

New Labour is clearly dead in the water. It's time to regroup.

And time for ALL the democratic parties to go for the fascist right's throat.

The Skin

[Anarcho-Socialist]

5. Here's the latest YouGov numbers

5016 Adults, 27-29th May 2009

Headline Voting Intention
Con 39
Lab 22
LD 18
UKIP 7
BNP 5
Green 4
Nats 3

Voting Intention (Those 10/10 certain they will vote, 46% of survey)
Con 27
Lab 17
UKIP 16
LD 15
Green 9
BNP 7
Nats 4

Source: http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/DT-toplines_27-29MAY.pdf

[non sociopath skin]

6. Hmm. So that's pretty conclusive, then.

Nobody knows what the fcuk is going to happen on Thursday!

The Skin