Polly Toynbee: Gordon Must Go

[non sociopath skin]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/may/11/labour-gordon-brown

Discuss :evilgrin:

The Skin

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. The Nose Peg Has Left the Building

When he's lost Polly Toynbee, he's gone beyond the 'rearranging the deckchairs' stage - he's playing "Nearer My God To Thee" on a sloping deck.

Johnson wouldn't save Labour in the next election, I think, but might make the loss slightly less embarrassing. But I doubt Labour would get rid of Brown - unlike when the Tories chucked Thatcher overboard, there isn't a flagship policy (to mix the nautical metaphors) to send over the side with Brown in the hope of looking like a new start. Too much of the anti-government feeling comes from "this is yet another thing I don't like about Labour". So I think they'll claim they're staying loyal, and go down on the ship with him.

[non sociopath skin]

2. I'm not 100% sure, Mu.

Brown, rightly or wrongly, is a fatally tainted brand now, and a personalization of everything that's wrong with NuLab Government. While a change at the helm would, in some respects, be an admission of guilt and failure it might allow Johnson - like McCain in the last Presidential - to stand at a distance from what's gone before.

In present circumstances the election is Cameron's to win. But the sparseness of Tory policies and the pain which will accompany their re-introduction of Thatcher Full Strength as opposed to Thatcher Lite policies will furnish good red meat for a seemingly purged, chastened and humbled opposition to get its collective teeth into.

The Skin

[ikri]

3. In case anyone's interested

Odds on the next Labour leader...

Alan Johnson      - 7/2
Harriet Harman    - 4/1
David Miliband    - 6/1
Jon Cruddas       - 10/1
E Miliband        - 10/1
James Purnell     - 10/1
Jack Straw        - 12/1
Ed Balls          - 14/1
A Burnham         - 25/1
John Denham       - 25/1
A Milburn         - 33/1
Yvette Cooper     - 25/1
John Hutton       - 40/1
John Reid         - 50/1
Peter Hain        - 66/1
C Flint           - 40/1
Sean Woodward     - 66/1
Charles Clarke    - 50/1
John McDonnell    - 66/1
Douglas Alexander - 66/1
Hilary Benn       - 66/1
Jacqui Smith      - 100/1

A giant list of political non-entities, although Jack Straw at 12/1 and Hilary Benn at 66/1 might be worth a couple of £. Some of the others on there though :( I'd rather vote Tory than cast a vote for Jacqui Smith or John Reid.

[Dutch]

4. At least Byers isn't in there, I suppose

The most striking (and telling) thing to me is Smith being out at 100/1. Quite a comment on her effectiveness in the fourth most senior position in cabinet.

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. Even more striking: they don't bother quoting Alistair Darling at all

And that's in arguably the second most senior position (depending on whether you consider Deputy Leader as having that).

[ikri]

6. I only included about half the runners

Alistair Darling has odds of 50/1, he's well down amongst the long shots.

If you fancy a real waste-of-time bet then Mandy is at 66/1 and Tony Blair is at 100/1.

There have been rumours in the past couple of days that Jacqui Smith's days are numbered so her long odds don't really surprise me too much. Alan Johnson & Harriet Harman seem to be the current favourites, they don't seem to have picked up the stench of defeat that surrounds most of the government but they're highly unlikely (in my opinion at least) to win back many voters and neither has really criticized the government's official policy lines.

Labour need someone untainted by recent memories of Brown & Blair.