The latest U.K. Election opinion polls

[Anarcho-Socialist]

YouGov Poll 6 April (+/-2) 1,735

Labour 36 (+1)
Conservatives 36 (+2)
Lib Dems 21 (-1)
Others 7 (-2)

ICM Poll 5 April (+/-3) 1,507

Labour 37 (-3)
Conservatives 34 (+2)
Lib Dems 21 (+1)
Others 8

MORI Poll 5 April (+/-3) 1,001

Conservatives 39 (+2)
Labour 34 (-3)
Lib Dems 21 (+1)
Others 6

NOP Poll 5 April (+/-3) 956

Labour 36 (-3)
Conservatives 33 (-1)
Lib Dems 21 (+2)
Others 10 (+1)

Populous Poll 5 April (+/-3) 1,513

Labour 37 (-2)
Conservatives 35 (+3)
Lib Dems 19 (-1)
Others 9

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/polltracker/html/default.stm

[WearyOne]

1. be great if Tony Blair lost his seat

[Guy_Montag]

2. Not much chance of that

Party leaders always get the safest seat.

[tjwmason]

4. There was a report in the Torygraph that he might get a single challenger

Apparently the father of a soldier killed in Iraq is standing as an independent and wants the other parties to pull out to give him a clear run. I can't find the article on their web-site, and haven't been able to see another newspaper today.

[WearyOne]

5. I think an ex-spy who exposed his lies is also standing

[Englander]

10. It's Reg Keys,with support from Brian Eno & Martin Bell;

I don't know if the other candidates will withdraw.
Probably not,though I think they should.

Military Families Against the War;

http://www.mfaw.org.uk/elect.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/vote_2005/england/4417791.stm

[T_i_B]

16. The current list of candidates in Sedgefield

Tony Blair Labour
William Brown UK Independence Party
Robert Browne Liberal Democrat
Reg Keys Independent
Al Lockwood Conservative
Fiona Luckhurst-Matthews Veritas
David Shayler Independent

Sadly no Monster Raving Loony Party in Sedgefield as yet. :-( Mind you, the last day for nominations is the 19th April. And if I had to name one man whom I would never vote for in a month of Sunday's it would be David Shayler.

[T_i_B]

41. The full list

You'll like this list of candidates!

Tony Blair Labour
Cherri Blairout-Gilham The Pensioners Party
William Brown UK Independence Party
Robert Browne Liberal Democrat
Jonathan Cockburn Blair Must Go Party
Helen John Independent
Reg Keys Independent
Al Lockwood Conservative
Fiona Luckhurst-Matthews Veritas
Terry Pattinson Senior Citizens Party
Boney Maroney Staniforth Monster Raving Loony Party

[Anarcho-Socialist]

42. I wonder what Boney Maroney Staniforth's policies are?

:bounce:

[T_i_B]

43. You can find out here

The Official Monster Raving Loony Party Thread!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=191x84

And party website!

http://www.omrlp.com/

[Anarcho-Socialist]

3. It's a big ask, Blair has a huge majority in his seat n/t

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. Radio 4 just did a piece on Michael Howard's seat

Folkestone and Hythe. He only has a majority of 6,000 (http://politics.guardian.co.uk/hoc/constituency/0,9338,-945,00.html), and the Lib Dems are keen, but Labour there is totally opposed to tactical voting, unfortunately.

[Guy_Montag]

7. Do you think there may be a bit of...

if we help the lib dems here, the tories will help the lib dems in Sedgefield & it all goes pairshaped for everyone.

[renaissanceguy]

26. No More Blair!

U.K., learn from the U.S.' mistakes...

http://www.cafepress.com/liberalissues/570341

[Anarcho-Socialist]

8. Latest YouGov opinion poll 8 April

YouGov opinion poll 8 April (+/-2) 5,108

Labour 36
Conservatives 35 (-1)
Lib Dems 21
Others 8 (+1)

EDIT: This data can be accessed by the link in the OP.

[legin]

9. (Horrible) Ladbrookes betting prices

Labour 1/16

Conservatives 7/1

Lib Dems 100/1

http://www.ladbrokes.com/lbr_portal?action=do_lang_splash&form_name=lang_splash&LANG=en&STYLE=en&VIEW=uk&LAYOUT=default

(click specials. click politics)

[Donald Ian Rankin]

11. My word...

I've never gambled in my life, but at those odds I'm sorely tempted to put some money on the Tories, if only as a way of hedging my bets.

I think that there's a real risk that large numbers of left-wingers will vote against Labour or abstain, as a protest, assuming that they'll win anyhow, and that the Tories will get back in - they're only one point behind in the polls at present.

I think those odds underestimate their chances quite dramatically.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

12. There is a danger of Labour's majority being wiped out

if there is a collapse in Labour's vote resulting in a Hung Parliament.

Statistically, it would take a Tory victory by 9% over Labour just to get a simple majority (due to statistical quirks of First Past the Post). For this to happen Labour would have had to run an utterly terrible campaign and the Conservatives a brilliant one.

[D-Notice]

13. Actually

it'll need more than a 10% swing to the Tories for them to get a majority of 1 - which is more than what Labour got in 1997

See here for how much they need: Peter Snow's Swingometer

It also shows that it's impossible for to "Let the Tories in by the back door" by voting for the Lib Dems, as Peter Hain (amongst others) claims

[Anarcho-Socialist]

14. Thanks, that's interesting

I got my figure from the BBC seats calculator by inputting percentage values. It's on the same link I believe.

[Vladimir]

15. There are different models used, and one should remember

that the amount assigned to the Lib Dems and third parties also affects the result. Electoralcalculus is the most comprehensive I think, but it all circles around a 9-10% lead given a LibDem vote share of around 20%.

[fedsron2us]

22. As someone who like a punt

I should warn those thinking of having a flutter on the Tories that the bookies very rarely get the prices wrong. They are a much more reliable indicator of the likely result than the pollsters. If you must have a bet please do not give your money to the bastards at Ladbrokes. I am sure that there are other bookmakers out there who will offer you a better price.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

17. Latest Observer/MORI poll

Observer/MORI poll 10 April

Labour 40 (+6)
Conservatives 33 (-6)
Lib Dems 19 (-2)
Others 8 (+2)

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/election/story/0,15803,1456520,00.html

The MORI poll has swung wildly in the last 5 days. I'm not sure what to make of this.

[muriel_volestrangler]

18. Other polls today:

The YouGov poll for the Sunday Times showed Labour ahead by two points on 37 per cent, with the Conservatives to 35 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 21 per cent.

Meanwhile, an ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph puts Labour four points ahead on 38 per cent against the Tories' 34 per cent; the Lib Dems have 20 per cent of support.

DeHavilland (can anyone tell me how an aircraft company ended up giving a news service?)

[Anarcho-Socialist]

19. Yeah, I'd like to know that about DeHavilland too n/t

[Wat_Tyler]

20. MORI has been very odd of late - their Scottish poll made little sense

Tories in second place, Labour far ahead of any other poll, the SNP and Liberals down about 5 points - I think MORI are having a methodology crisis.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

21. Some analysis from the BBC: Early polls suggest Labour lead

Early polls suggest Labour lead

ANALYSIS
David Cowling
Editor, BBC Political Research

Sunday sees three polls published. ICM gives a Labour lead of 4% and YouGov suggests a Labour lead of 2%. Both of them suggested virtually no change from the start of the campaign last week.

However, Mori showed a Labour lead of 7%, compared with a Conservative lead of 5% which they registered in the previous week.

Mori's voting intention is drawn from only those respondents who say they are absolutely certain to vote. This significant shift may be the result of a stiffening of intention to vote among Labour's supporters.

Labour would like to think so but we should look for more supporting evidence before we risk suggesting that the election campaign has shifted decisively Labour's way.

More at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4429205.stm

Quite interesting, he seems to propose that those who are leaving Labour aren't going to Tories, but to other parties (probably the LibDems).

[Anarcho-Socialist]

23. New ICM YouGov polls

ICM Poll 11 April (+/-3%) 1,009

Labour 38
Conservatives 33
Liberal Democrats 22
Others 7

YouGov Poll 11 April (+/-2%) 1,514 (*this poll comes from a panel of internet users*)

Labour 36
Conservatives 36
Liberal Democrats 20
Others 8

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/polltracker/html/default.stm

[Wat_Tyler]

24. I think we can safely disregard any pollster that uses the words

'internet panel', eh?

[Anarcho-Socialist]

25. Yes, alarm bells started ringing when I saw that n/t

[Guy_Montag]

28. You Gov are actually quite respectable

they ask the same people, so they get a drift over time, compared to say Mori who get different people for each poll. They do check on people's socio-economic background & use that to extrapolate over the country. It's not as bad as it sounds.

[muriel_volestrangler]

29. But the weighting they give to people's last vote is bizarre

http://pollingreport.co.uk/blog/index.php?p=228

They adjuts their sample until 56% of the people are ones who claim they voted for Labour last time.

And, via Nick Cohen's piece in last Sunday's Observer, a blogger tells us How to improve your YouGov ratings (lie, and tell them you read The Sun, earn less, never watch Newsnight, and voted Labour in 2001).

[Guy_Montag]

30. But I guess you can do that for any polling org.

I don't know, no-one has ever asked me who I'm going to vote for. *snif*

[sonicx]

27. NOP: Lab - 38%, Con - 32%, Libdem - 21%

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/story.jsp?story=628630

[Anarcho-Socialist]

31. New MORI Poll released 13 April

MORI Poll 13 April (+/-3) 1,973

Labour 39 (-1)
Conservatives 35 (+2)
Lib Dems 21 (+2)
Others 5 (-3)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/polltracker/html/default.stm

[Anarcho-Socialist]

32. New ICM Poll released 14 April

ICM Poll 14 April (+/-3) 1,524

Labour 39 (+1)
Conservatives 33
Lib Dems 21 (-1)
Others 7

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/polltracker/html/default.stm

[Anarcho-Socialist]

33. New YouGov Poll 15 April

YouGov Poll 15 April (+/-2) 2,240

Labour 38 (+2)
Conservatives 33 (-3)
Lib Dems 22 (+2)
Others 7 (-1)

[LSdemocrat]

34. Does anyone know if Labour is losing votes (since 2001) uniformly?

I believe that the 2% swing against Labour in 2001 came almost entirely from safe, Labour heartland seats.

Has anyone seen any data checking if the same thing is happening this time?

[Anarcho-Socialist]

35. Polls are putting Labour support at between 35-39%

this is down from the 41% that Labour gained in 2001. So, there does appear to be some swing away from Labour. From the polls it appears that some of this has gone to the Tories (about 1-3%). The rest of the swing away from Labour has probably gone to the Lib Dems (which will come into play mostly in the Labour/Lib Dem marginals).

The swing to the Lib Dems also will probably cost Labour some of their marginal seats against the Tories. This may be countered by some 'tactical voting' by the Lib Dems to keep the Tories out, but it seems that Lib Dems are less inclined to do that this time around.

In safe Labour seats there will probably be some greater-than-average swing to the Lib Dems if Labourites intend to punish Blair. If the Tories gain some unexpectedly large swing in safe Labour seats, it'll probably be due to Labour voters staying home en masse.

The BBC have reported that they believe that there is a 2.5% uniform swing away from Labour to the Conservatives (using poll data), which is still enough to give Labour another landslide. However they have not focused on Labour-Lib Dem swing which may award the Tories more seats than what their 2.5% swing from Labour would normally allow.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

36. Latest polls 17 April

YouGov Poll 17 April (+/-2) 1,482

Labour 36 (-2)
Conservatives 35 (+2)
Lib Dems 23 (+1)
Others 6 (-1)

ICM Poll 17 April (+/-3) 1,521

Labour 40 (+1)
Conservatives 30 (-3)
Lib Dems 22 (+1)
Others 8 (+1)

Communicate Poll 17 April (+/-3) 1,000

Labour 40
Conservatives 34
Lib Dems 20 (+4)
Others 6 (-4)

-------
I have no idea which of these polls to believe, if any.

[non sociopath skin]

37. Wasn't Yougov putting the Tories ahead a coupla weeks ago?

The Skin

[Anarcho-Socialist]

38. It was MORI that had the Tories ahead a couple of weeks ago

YouGov has mostly been showing a statistical dead-heat between Labour and Tories.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

39. 2 new polls 18 April ICM and YouGov

ICM Poll 18 April (+/-3) 1,000

Labour 41 (+1)
Conservatives 33 (+3)
Lib Dems 20 (-2)
Others 6 (-1)

YouGov Poll 18 April (+/-2) 2,011

Labour 36
Conservatives 33 (-2)
Lib Dems 23
Others 8 (+2)

[muriel_volestrangler]

40. 19th April: MORI, NOP and Populus

MORI (those certain to vote): Lab 40%(+1 from last poll) Con 32%(-3) LD 21%(0)

NOP: Lab 37%(-1) Con 32%(0) LD 21%(0)

Populus: Lab 40%(+3) Con 31%(-4) LD 21%(+2)

[Anarcho-Socialist]

44. ICM Poll 21 April; Populous Poll 20 April

ICM Poll 21 April (+/-3) 1,513

Labour 39 (-2)
Conservatives 33
Lib Dems 22 (+2)
Others 7

Populous Poll 20 April (+/-3) 1,424

Labour 39 (-1)
Conservatives 33 (+2)
Lib Dems 21 (-1)
Others 7 (-1)

[Anarcho-Socialist]

45. 3 new polls, 24 April (Communicate, ICM, YouGov)

Communicate Poll 24 April (+/-3) 1,003

Labour 40
Conservatives 35 (+1)
Lib Dems 18 (-2)
Others 7 (+1)

ICM Poll 24 April (+/-3) 1,524

Labour 39
Conservatives 33
Lib Dems 21 (-1)
Others 8 (+1)

YouGov Poll 24 April (+/-2) 1,490

Labour 37
Conservatives 33 (-1)
Lib Dems 23 (+1)
Others 7

[Anarcho-Socialist]

46. May Day opinion polls - Communicate, ICM, YouGov

Communicate Poll 1 May (+/-3) 1,091

Labour 39 (-1)
Conservatives 31 (-4)
Lib Dems 23 (+5)
Others 6

ICM Poll 1 May (+/-3) 1,532

Labour 39 (-1)
Conservatives 31 (-2)
Lib Dems 22 (+2)
Others 8 (+1)

YouGov Poll 1 May (+/-2) 1,400

Labour 36
Conservatives 33 (+1)
Lib Dems 23 (-1)
Others 8

[muriel_volestrangler]

47. Last polls

NOP: Lab 36%, Con 33%, LD 23%, Oth 9%
Populus: Lab 38%, Con 32%, LD 21%, Oth 9%
ICM: Lab 38%, Con 32%, LD 22%, Oth 8%
YouGov: Lab 37%, Con 32%, LD 24%, Oth 7%