They said it couldn't happen here ... Tories given a 5 point lead by Mori

[non sociopath skin]

Various agencies, including the BBC, have today reported a Mori poll for the Financial Times concentrating on people who say they will definitely vote and giving the Tories a five point lead over Labour on 39 compared to 34 and the Liberal Democrats on 21.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/881d2f1e-a550-11d9-8616-00000e...

A couple of months back when I first expressed concern at the apparent Tory comeback, I was told firmly (and just a little patronisingly) that it would still be fine to register a protest vote against Bliar without the risk of a Tory victory which was statistically impossible.

Well, like I said, with a heavy heart I shall - like the French left at the last Presidential who allowed their ideologically sound votes in the first round to oust Lionel Jospin in favour of Fuhrer Le Pen - be voting, faux de mieux, for Jacques Bliar.

O Tempora! O Mores!

The Skin

[AllegroRondo]

1. For those of us not familiar with British politics

Are Tories conservative?

Where does Labour fit in on the political spectrum?

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. yes; the proper party name is "the Conservative party"

(in fact, there's something about 'unionist' in there too, but no-one ever bothers with that). They are actually starting to say they want the 'Tory' nickname dropped; but the alternative shortening for headlines is "Con", and why they'd want to get called that, who knows.

Labour: the leadership is centre-right, the membership spread between the centre-right and centre-left.

See http://www.politicalcompass.org for a plot of the main parties' political manifesto positions (including some past ones, that shows how Labour has drifted right under Blair).

[mr blur]

22. Blair's a disgrace.

"Labour: the leadership is centre-right, the membership spread between the centre-right and centre-left."

Hell, I miss the days when this wasn't so.

I used to say that the US didn't have a left-wing party - now, of course, neither do we. The last hopes for anything resembling Socialism in Labour went with Neil Kinnock. There hardly seems to be anyone left in the party who believes in anything.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

30. That's not quite fair

Roughly speaking, most Conservatives fall somewhere between the Republicans and the Democrats:- the principle planks of their campaign are tax cuts, introducing market principles into the public services, restrictions on immigration, "efficiency" and more law and order. They claim not to plan to cut spending on public services, although I, virtually everyone who's not planning to vote for them and many of those who are don't believe them.

There are also non-trivial but small overtly, and more widespread underlying, racist, homophobic, anti-abortion etc movements, but the current leadership is trying to take the spotlight off them - how much influence they wield next time the party is in power remains to be seen.


I don't agree that the Labour leadership is centre right - they've increased spending on the public services, introduced several good pieces of gay-rights legislation, and (although my economics isn't solid enough to be sure if this is right) I've heard several reputable left-wing figures claiming that they've gone at least a little way towards redistributing wealth and alleviating poverty,. albeit not terribly far.

On the other hand, there is no doubt that Blair deliberately and knowingly lied to try and gain support for the invasion of Iraq, and he's in general not above trying to mislead the electorate as much as he can get away with, he's extremely authoritarian, and his approach to civil liberties has been disgraceful. Also, he has introduced a lot of very dubious reforms in the public services in the name of choice.

My verdict would be left of centre, but only just, and to use the terminology of "1066 And All That", while he's probably on balance just about a Good Thing, he's unquestionably a Bad Man.

Most of the Labour party membership is quite a bit further to the left than he is, although a fair amount of the furthest left has drained off to support either the Lib Dems, Respect, or the Greens, or just left the party in disgust.

I'll be sticking with Labour, though - I think the Tory party has been written off far too soon, and if they win on May 5th I want to be able to say that I did my bit. I'll be holding my nose when I do it, though.

[Englander]

33. Is there anyone in the Cabinet,or Government (apart from Gordie)

who can be described as "left of centre"?

All I can think of is Hilary Benn.
That's it,isn't it?


"Guide to ministers and departments

The new shape of Whitehall
Our comprehensive guide to who does what in the government.

Downing Street
Prime minister, first Lord of the Treasury and minister for the civil service
The Rt Hon Tony Blair MP

Office of the Deputy Prime Minister
Deputy prime minister and first secretary of state
The Rt Hon John Prescott MP

Cabinet Office
Minister for the Cabinet Office
The Rt Hon Lord MacDonald of Tradeston CBE

Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster
The Rt Hon Alan Milburn MP

The Treasury
Chancellor of the exchequer
The Rt Hon Gordon Brown MP

Privy Council Office and the Lord Privy Seal
President of the council and leader of the House of Commons
The Rt Hon Peter Hain MP

Leader of the House of Lords
Baroness Amos of Brondesbury

Department of Constitutional Affairs
Lord Chancellor
The Rt Hon The Lord Falconer of Thoroton QC

Foreign and Commonwealth Office
Secretary of state for foreign and Commonwealth affairs
The Rt Hon Jack Straw MP

Home Office
Secretary of state for the home department
The Rt Hon Charles Clarke MP

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Secretary of state for environment, food and rural affairs
The Rt Hon Margaret Beckett MP

Department for International Development
Secretary of state for international development
Hilary Benn MP

Department for Work and Pensions
Secretary of state for work and pensions
Alan Johnson MP

Department of Transport
Secretary of state for transport, local government and the regions
The Rt Hon Alistair Darling MP

Department of Health
Secretary of state for health
The Rt Hon John Reid MP

Northern Ireland Office
Secretary of state for Northern Ireland
The Rt Hon Paul Murphy MP

Ministry of Defence
Secretary of state for defence
The Rt Hon Geoff Hoon MP

Department of Trade and Industry
Secretary of state for trade and industry
The Rt Hon Patricia Hewitt MP

Department for Education and Skills
Secretary of state for education and skills
The Rt Hon Charles Clarke MP

Department for Culture, Media and Sport
Secretary of state for culture, media and sport
The Rt Hon Tessa Jowell MP

House of Lords Whips' Office
Lord chief whip and captain of the gentlemen at arms
The Rt Hon The Lord Grocott

House of Commons Whips' Office
Parliamentary secretary, Treasury and chief whip
The Rt Hon Hilary Armstrong MP "

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/whitehall/page/0,9067,725283,00.html

[tx_dem41]

2. If you are going to do a protest vote, at least vote Lib-Dem....

although, I really wish the Lib-Dems would do better anyway.

Do UK polls generally "over-report" for Tories...in other words is there past history of Tories doing better in the polls than in reality?

[non sociopath skin]

4. Please note: the predicted surge for the LibDems has NOT happened ...

.. in the latest polls. There is a real risk of splitting the non-Tory vote in many constituencies and allowing the Tories through. The BBC lunchtime news explained that on the strength of that MORI poll, Labour would lose its majority. And there's still a month to go.

Bliar's Britain is bad enough. I DO NOT want a NeoCon Britain.

The Skin

[tx_dem41]

8. I agree....

and if I were a UK voter (I live in Texas), I would probably end up voting Labor as well.

[D-Notice]

34. How would it be any different with the Tories?

Bliar's not exactly anti-NeoCon is he?

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. In 1992, opinion polls underreported the Tories

because, it is thought, people were ashamed of openly admitting they were selfish enough to vote for them. Since then the pollsters have tried to compensate for this. I doubt they've overcompensated, though.

Note that 3 other polls today all had Labour with a lead of about 4% over the Tories.

[tx_dem41]

9. Even those new polls have the Labor lead tightening up.

Wasn't the consensus on the previous series of polls around a 9% Labor lead?

[tjwmason]

15. I disagree, I cannot abide the Liberal Democrats

Despite the image which they present, they are actually some of the most dirty fighters in British politics.

Other than that, they are essentially a joke of a party (still).

[tx_dem41]

16. I thought Charles Kennedy had burnished their image some...

since the Paddy Ashdown days. Being a Yank in Texas, my exposure to Lib-Dems is limited to BBC and the Guardian mainly, but when I listen to "Any Questions?" I'm usually impressed with the Lib-Dem they have on, although I recognize that some are higher than others in the "loony factor".

Thanks for helping educate this Yank.

[tjwmason]

17. They are at their worst on the ground

As a small anecdote, I was a counting agent at the 1997 election (the people chosen by candidate to watch the count taking place). Everybody was identifiable by the rosettes they were wearing, the Tories and Labour supporters were chatting away to each other amiably, but the LibDems really just sat there looking down on both parties.

At local government level (which is where they actually have power and the chance of getting power) they use all of the old-school scare tactics. They are among the worst for claiming victories, I would not have been surprised so see a LibDem councillor claim the full credit for the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

I have seen honest debate coming from both the Labour Party and the Tories - they both have an ideological position which they (for the most part) think is honestly the best option for the country. The LibDems merely sit in the middle sniping at both sides - though they can do this because they have no chance of power.

[tx_dem41]

18. You seem to be describing the advantage that every third party

has regardless of country. They can be against everything and never actually have to propose their own ideas or show leadership. Of course, that dooms them for permanent status as a third party.

[non sociopath skin]

25. My experience of the Libberdemmers is exactly the same as yours, tj...

... Got their Northumberland County Council glossy election newspaper yesterday.

There's a huge and contentious issue here around the Labour council's decision to switch from a three tier education system to two-tier. The Libberdemmers have made great play of "saving the middle schools": indeed, they persuaded parents who were standing as Independents on a "Keep Three Tier" platform to stand as Charlie's Angels instead.

However, the paper talks about not losing "popular middle schools," and having "proper consultation," and avoiding "one size fits all," and pointedly NOT saying "We'll keep three tier."

It's pretty evident that, if they win - and, though they stay quiet about it in the literature, that would mean their usual "anti-Socialist" coalition with the Tories - the bastions will still implement the Two Tier plan which they've never actually opposed in the Council Chamber.

Stinky-poo, no?

The Skin

[tjwmason]

26. I like the "anti-socialist coalition" bit

Round here the Tories are the majority party by a very long way, the LibDems are simply the anti-tory group, and are more than happy to work with Labour. They're total chameleons.

Stink-poo puts it perfectly to my mind.

[Englander]

6. If there was a 10 point lead for

the Vampyre,then I'd be concerned.

Just remember that the Labour parliamentary majority
in '01 was greater than the number of Tory MPs.

How much of a swing do the Tories need to gain
a single seat?

[ps1074]

7. Tories need to win by 10 to take back the government

At the last election it took on average 92,554 votes to elect a Liberal Democrat MP, 50,347 to elect a Conservative MP and just 26,031 votes to elect a Labour MP.

Thanks to the current bias in the system, if both major parties take around 35/36 per cent of the national vote, Labour will still be in government with a majority of around 100.

To win power for themselves, the Tories have to be 10 points ahead of Labour --and no opinion poll has recorded that sort of margin for at least the past decade.

http://edition.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/europe/04/02/uk.election/

[Wat_Tyler]

10. That sucks for the LibDems.

If this were any more than a rogue poll, and that trend continued on, there's going to be a lot of those LibDem voters switching over to Blair to stop Howard. Sad, really.

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. These are the figures for 'definite voters'

the same poll, when it asked people which party they supported, gave Labour a 5 point lead over the Tories. Labour's problem is that a lot of Labour voters are disillusioned with Blair, and have no enthusiasm for voting for him.

The thing is that, in practice, I think most people do give a thought to tactical voting. Rarely is a consituency a three-way contest; and I don't think many Lib Dem voters would be in a position to risk losing a Lib Dem seat by voting Labour, because they thought a Tory could win it instead. If they knew the Lib Dems would lose anyway, they might switch to Labour if they felt the Tory might get in due to falling Labour support; but they might do that anyway, to make sure.

[Wat_Tyler]

12. I think Labour's vote will collapse in their core seats

but will be more resilient in the marginals. We may see some freak results in places like Glasgow or Newcastle where those Labour voters feel they have absolutely no incentive to turn out - I suspect we'll see super-low turnout in those seats.

[muriel_volestrangler]

13. Could the Scottish Socialists win anywhere?

With boundary changes, it's even harder to work it out. Their best showing in 2001 was Glasgow Pollock, where they got about 10%; now, more or less Glasgow South West, apparently. But the SNP were second place last time - so they might pick up just as many disaffected Labour voters.

http://politics.guardian.co.uk/hoc/constituency/0,9338,-967,00.html

[Wat_Tyler]

14. On their website they admit that they do not expect to win a seat.

Of course, in their position, they would want to manage expectations, even if they did expect to win a seat.
Their candidate in Glasgow SW is a local councillor, so he will have some visibility - it would appear to be their best shot. However, IIRC, Pollok was where Sheridan himself had run on a number of occasions, so there may have been a residual vote from his candidacy that may not go for a less charismatic or lower profile candidate.
The only other name I recognized on their list was Harvey Duke in Dundee East - he's a perennial candidate, but that seat is probably going SNP, and as such a lot of leftist voters will be supporting the Nats to squeeze out Labour.

http://www.scottishsocialistparty.org/pages/candidates.html

[Anarcho-Socialist]

19. I'll be interested to see when other polls come out

just in case this is 'statistical noise', but it does confirm by concern that I won't have the option of voting with my conscience (for the Greens), so it may well be that I'll be reluctantly voting Labour.

I sincerely hope Gordon Brown's time is getting closer. He is considered much more trustworthy than Blair.

[muriel_volestrangler]

20. Today's other 3 polls

Guardian/ICM Labour 37% Con 34% Lib Dem 21%

Times/Populus Labour 37% Con 35% Lib Dem 19%

Independent/NOP Labour 36% Con 33% Lib Dem 21%

Those are 'straight polls' (perhaps meaning 'likely to vote'?) rather than the Financial Times/MORI 'definite to vote'.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

21. Thanks for the links

The MORI poll does seem to deviate much more than those three.

From Labour +3 to Conservative +5, that's a huge swing. I haven't seen anything to warrant such a swing away from Labour and Lib Dems to Tories (despite what people think of BLiar).

[Vladimir]

29. The MORI poll is completely predictable

the Tories have a very solid base who are definitely turning out, while Labour's base is unsure of itself and far less likely to bother voting. But that doesn't mean they won't.

[sonicx]

23. Tories can't win with those numbers

Labour would lead in seats by a small number and there'd be a hung parliament.

And the poll only includes people who picked 10 on a 1-10 scale of 'likely to vote.'

[non sociopath skin]

24. All the same, these are not the statistics I'd prefer ...

... on Day 1 of the Campaign,

The Skin

[fedsron2us]

27. My top tip is ignore the Polls and look at the bookies prices.

They have a much better record in predicting election outcomes than the pollsters. The odds on a Tory victory are 13/2 against so the money says Labour wins again.

http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=4360583

[Vladimir]

28. So the Labour vote is disenfranchised - what else is new?

The Tories still need a five point swing and for everyone not responding to this poll to stay at home in order to win. I.e. a minor miracle.

[non sociopath skin]

31. Wouldn't see a win for the Party of the Night as a "miracle" meself, Vlad.

The Skin

[Vladimir]

32. But why focus on the one poll which has them ahead,

for entirely explicable reasons?