After this week, can Gordon Brown last another two years?

[Morris Onions]

This weeks local and London mayoral election have been disastrous for the Labour party.

If translated into a national vote, the Tories would likely have a house of commons majority of over 140 seats.

There must be a lot of Labour MPs seriously questioning the wisdom of replacing three-time winner Blair with the brooding, malevolent, unelected Brown.

So what do we think? Will their be another change of leader before 2010?

And if so, can anyone win it for Labour?

[LeftishBrit]

1. Well, they keep saying 'worst results since 1968'

And the PM in 1968 was Harold Wilson; he stayed on; his party did lose in the 1970 general election but came back in '74.

So it's quite possible.

The point is, is there really a Labout alternative to Brown at present, that the party could agree on?

[T_i_B]

2. He can last 2 years easy

The question is, can he turn things round enough to last any longer?

In order for Gordon Brown to get deposed before that he will need a credible challenge from within Labour, and I can't see where that would come from. Remember that Gordon Brown was elected unopposed in the 1st place which gives you an idea of the strength of any potential challengers.

Maybe we ought to remember that John Major was in 10 Downing Street for 7 and a half years in spite all all that went wrong for the Tories during that time.

[Morris Onions]

3. Actually there some interesting parallels with Major...

In 1995, with his ratings in the toilet, his government wracked by divisions and in-fighting, and being bested in the polls by a resurgent opposition led by a young vibrant and (crucially) media-friendly figure, John Major resigned as party leader and offered himself up for re-election.

Incredibly, the Tories stuck with him and two years later they were duly demolished by Blairs "New Labour" in a GE landslide that wreaked them for a decade.

It ain't gonna happen of course, because Brown isn't inclined to allow any avoidable election if he has even the remotest chance of losing (see last years mooted GE and the promised EU referendum), but if he did "do a Major", would the Labour Party make the same mistake as the Tories did in 1995?

[T_i_B]

4. Do you honestly think that Redwood would have been any better?

Since when was the Vulcan ever going to take votes off Tony Blair for starters?

[Morris Onions]

5. Well the Tories beat the odds to win in 1992 having ditched Thatcher for Major two years previously

so who knows?

[T_i_B]

6. Was John Major from the rabid fringe of his party like Redwood?

And for that matter, since when did John Redwood have any Charisma at all?

[Morris Onions]

7. Was Thatcher a middle of the road moderate? Does Brown have charsima?

[T_i_B]

8. Well....

Compared to Redwood Thatcher was indeed a "middle of the Road Moderate".

Compared to Redwood Gordon Brown is very charismatic.

You may say "who knows?" to the question of wether redwood could have beaten Blair but the truth is that we all know that he would have done even worse then Major in 1997.

[Morris Onions]

9. Redwood beating Blair would have been very unlikely I conceed. It's equally unlikely that

that Labour can win in 2010 with Mr Brown at the helm.

So wouldn't they be better off ditching him now for someone else?

If I were a Labour MP, I'd rather take my chances with an unknown than stick with an established loser.

[non sociopath skin]

11. The thought of you as a Labour MP is pretty amusing, BD!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

The Skin

[Morris Onions]

12. Glad to give you a laugh Sparty, at what must be a most depressing time for you

:evilgrin:

[non sociopath skin]

14. Why would that be, Bulldog?

I hold no candle for NuLab and, in many respects, think they deserve the rough justice they've been dealt out. The difference between us is that you want the Tories back simply because you are a Tory and would prefer an incompetent Tory government to an incompetent NuLab one. I would like to see better government!

My main concern - like that of many people, including some Tories - is that Johnson (or whoever his Cheney figure proves to be)will be a disaster for London. Even you seem to have your reservations when you're on home turf!
http://freebritannia.6.forumer.com/viewtopic.php?t=8926&sid=276187e48bd9eb42675ad3d3c6917cbe

But then again, that's just me being empathic. I'm a long way from the Smoke and it won't effect me.

BTW, your fingers slipped. I used Spartacus when I posted on your board - on DU I'm Non Sociopath Skin, just as you're Bulldog ... oops, no, you came back as Morris Onions didn't you?

Sorry, silly me ... :evilgrin:

[Morris Onions]

15. Now I'd have thought that you'd welcome a Tory administration Skin/Sparty...

what with them undertaking to abolish the ZaNu-labour ID cards abomination & all.

http://freebritannia.6.forumer.com/viewtopic.php?p=9261&highlight=cards+vote#9261

No messing?

:evilgrin:

[non sociopath skin]

16. You have early sight of the manifesto, BD?

You must be closer to the party hierarchy than I thought!

The Skin

[T_i_B]

17. One issue does not make it for most people

Take Europe for instance (since you seem to be a John Redwood fan). I think it's fair to say are the majority of English are Euro-sceptics, so why haven't they voted for the Tories over more the more EU friendly Labour and Lib Dems at the past 3 elections?

Could it be that people base their votes on more then one issue perhaps?

[T_i_B]

18. It's not "equally unlikely" at all really

As unlike John Redwood, Gordon Brown is at least from planet Earth! :rofl:

[mr blur]

10. Does he deserve to?

All this is payback, for Bliar, the war, and the Labour Party's transfer into Tory-Lite.

[Morris Onions]

13. Hmmmm.... not sure that you can...

...blame this on all the above

Ex-Mayor Ken won as an independent in 2000 and then on Labour ticket in 2004, despite Bliar & the war, etc (indeed why did Ken return to the Labour ticket if he felt it was tainted by the war & Blair rather than run again as an independent?)

And why would left wing voters vote for the full-fat Tory, as opposed to "Tory-lite"?

I suspect that Ken won in London in 2000 and in 2004 because people voted/against for the man rather than the party, and that the same applied this year. Both mayoral candidates are big, instantly recognisable characters, and not without their controversies.

The local election results are more telling because folks will be more likely to have voted for (or against) the national parties rather than for the individual candidate.

The forthcoming by-election will be interesting.

Crewe & Nantwich provisional share of the local election figures...

Cons 31.15%
Labour 31.8%
LD 18.70%
Others: 18.35%