Grits, NDP pulling even?

[CHIMO]

The polls are starting to reveal a new race this federal election – for second place.
The strength of NDP Leader Jack Layton leadership numbers seem to be pulling the party up while Liberal Leader Stephane Dion’s seemed to be dragging his party down.

An Angus Reid/Toronto Star poll published today put the Conservatives at 39 per cent, the Liberals, 23 per cent and the New Democrats, 18 per cent.

And according the latest numbers from Angus Reid, 32 per cent of Canadians believe that Conservative Leader Stephen Harper would make the best prime minister, 23 per cent for Layton and 15 per cent for Dion.

http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/498968

According to this poll our next parliament will be a conservative one.

[HeresyLives]

1. Yes, split the vote again

and we'll spend 4 years under a majority Harper government.

[CHIMO]

2. As Much

As we all don't want a libertarian government, we may have it again. If it happens it would hopefully be short lived.

The campaign is still young and perhaps the opposition will start to attack the government on it's past 2 1/2 years.

[iverglas]

3. yes, spin and keep spinning

Spin as hard as you can.

[HeresyLives]

4. 60 plus years of being a

spoiler. You've gotten nowhere.

Chardonnay socialists who enjoy the limelight, and never have to take responsibility, that's all.

[iverglas]

5. you know, even in the gun dungeon ...

Chardonnay socialists who enjoy the limelight, and never have to take responsibility, that's all.

... I don't think I've seen so many people making such assholes of themselves with such unfounded and simply viciously stupid assumptions.

[HeresyLives]

6. After 60 years it's no longer just an

assumption, much less an unfounded one. It's public record.

[iverglas]

7. Are you this thick?

You throw out a viciously stupid personal attack, and pretend that the response to it, in which it was quoted, was about something else?

It is not "public record" that I or anyone else is a "Chardonnay socialist blah de blah de blah, grasshopper.

What you are sure is public record now though.

[Clintonista2]

8. I'm glad to say that the days of ring thiefs and accusations of dog-porn are coming to an end

Elizabeth May is the grim reaper to Layton and his party. Let's hope Layton gets the mental help he needs after his party is wiped off the face of the earth.

[iverglas]

9. lay it long and loud

Elizabeth May is the grim reaper to Layton and his party.

Some morons somewhere might believe it.


Popular vote 2006:

CON - 36.3
LIBS - 30.2
NDP - 17.5
B Q - 10.5
GRN - 4.5


Per Angus Reid this week:


CON - 39 - vs. 36.3
LIBS - 23 - vs. 30.2
NDP - 18 - vs. 17.5
B Q - 9 - vs. 10.5
GRN - 10 - vs. 4.5


So I wonder. Who's losing votes to the Greens?

Yes, maybe the Liberals are losing votes to the NDP, and the NDP is losing votes to the Greens ... or -- maybe yer average, er, Merlot yuppie just thinks it's cute to vote for the Greens instead of the Liberals. The Greens not being nasty social democrats, after all.

The Liberals are losing voters to EVERYBODY, looks like to me, if there's any truth to the Lib-NDP-Green slippage theory. Except maybe to the Bloc. Any port in a storm for Liberal voters, looks like to me.

If Liberal voters actually vote Green, whom shall we blame?

Not the Liberals!!! The Greens? I know, I know!! Jack Layton!!

[Clintonista2]

10. LOL!

Here's a party that, until recently, had virtually zero national exposure (compared to 60 years of exposure for the NDP), and no money. Yet still, their popular support has doubled since the last election. Elizabeth May making Layton look like the jackass he is on national TV is going to be the final nail in his coffin.

[iverglas]

11. So I wonder

Who's losing votes to the Greens?

Liberals down 7% in the polls from last election. The Liberals aren't polling 1/4 of the national vote at this point.

Here's a party that believes it was born to govern Canada til the end of time. Reduced to whining and finger-pointing and trying to steal other party's voters, by threat and insult, 'cause they got none of their own.


NDP slightly above their popular vote in the last election.


So I wonder.

Who's losing votes to the Greens?


Me, I don't actually think anybody's losing a lot of votes to the Greens. I think some people think it's cute to tell pollsters they're voting Green, is all. I think the people in question are the usual know-nothings who usually vote Liberal, many of whom will likely still vote Liberal.


But still. Looks like Elizabeth May is making Stéphane Dion look, well, irrelevant.

Of course, I'm not looking at things through a defective crystal ball and the bitter gall of those who thought the country was their oyster until the end of time and just can't figure out why the voters aren't locking step behind them.

The Liberal Party, reduced to also-ran. I'll shed a nostalgic tear.

[HeresyLives]

12. Nanos shows NDP at 15%

No better than they've ever done, worse in fact.

[iverglas]

13. uh huh

and your point is?

Where does it show the Liberals?

Where are all the Liberal voters going?


Please try to pay attention.

[HeresyLives]

14. We hear the same thing from NDP every election.

Oh this is it! This is gonna be the one! It's breakthrough time!

Uh huh...NDP same as it always is. Nowhere.

[iverglas]

15. I love talking to bots

Too bad you don't hear what anybody is actually saying, innit?


Where ARE those Liberal votes going????

[HeresyLives]

16. Well I don't.

And you need oiling.

[CHIMO]

17. Layton's flawed strategy

Considering that the monothematic Green party can mainly be just a temporary shelter for dissatisfied Liberal and NDP voters, the answer is restricted to these two parties and, in a two-party system, one of them will go. Currently, the NDP looks to be that party.

The strategic vote is the first and strongest signal of this trend. Political hatred for the Conservatives is much stronger among some socialist voters than their loyalty to the NDP. If the Tories are strong, NDP support is weakened by strategic votes cast for Liberals in the hope of stopping the right.

This also means that the more the NDP leader attacks the Conservatives and demonizes its leaders, the more his supporters are scared and vote for the Liberals. In fact, the first victim of the political demonization of the Mike Harris Conservatives in Ontario in the late '90s was NDP Leader Howard Hampton, and the NDP lost party status at Queen's Park – twice.

The federal NDP will always be in this unhealthy situation until its leaders solve this dilemma and understand that in a two-party political system, they have to deal with the Liberals first. The best time to do that is when the Liberals are weak, as they are now. It almost happened in the '80s with Ed Broadbent.

http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/498604

So if you believe in democracy you should expect that the parties will try to win.
Mind you, I find this person's comments seem to lean to the conservatives.
Why shouldn't the NDP try and become the opposition or the government? If not what are they there for? Do you want us to become a two party country like the neighbours to the south?
What if Harper wins? Would it be worse than a Liberal win with no concrete policy nor direction other than more of the same? Not that I think that the NDP would be much different now.

Take a deep breath. Think about what direction and policies that you want our government to take. Then demand. Demand. Only support them when they follow your objectives.
Then one can debate on issue.

Also consider how we look at Nader and the response of the other parties to his policies.

[iverglas]

18. to save me the trouble ;) ...

... I rather liked these comments:

Sweet mother of god...

You are so off the mark its scary. Can you not smell the flop sweat coming off the Liberal campaign? You must because this is the kind of article the Star normally reserves for the final week of the campaign when they are trying to scare people into supporting the same old bunch of Liberal MP hacks. Angelo - you tell me, what have Toronto Liberals MPs done for Toronto? Alan Tonks, Maria Minna Derek Lee, Jim Karrigyanus, Gerbax Mahli (I don't even know if I am spelling the names right). My point is that they sat in their Ottawa offices for years when Libs had power and watched Toronto deteriorate with no attempt to get our city more money. They would show up for the funding announcements for pet projects in their ridings but what about infrastructure, transit and the waterfront? What did they do in opposition? NOTHING they took long lunches or went to the movies to avoid voting on the things that matter to Canadians (like Harper's immigration legislation and about 40 other votes).


Oh Angelo your liberal colours are showing

The Liberals are dead in Quebec. Quebec was their base for decades (if not centuries) so now that there foundation has collapsed the media elite of Toronto who loved themselves some Liberals will have to realize that it IS the NDP that is the logical party to rally around. The NDP has the strength in BC, SK, MB where they hold or consistently hold government. Their support is growing in Northern Ontario. Their support is growing in South West Ontario and will grow in the manufacturing belt. There support is growing in QC particularly in Montreal. There support is growing in NS where the provincial party has a shot at government. Other than Ontario where is the Liberal brand strong and growing. I dare you to tell me. Layton and the New Dems have the vision and leadership to run this country. The Canadian people are seeing this even if the MSM are still peddling the same old defeatist rhetoric trying to shore up the status quo.

What exactly is the Liberal Party's vision of/for Canada?

What exactly is the Liberal Party's base?

What IS the Liberal Party's brand?

Whose fault is it that nobody knows the answers to these questions?

[CHIMO]

19. If I

Am off the mark I would like to know where?

Didn't think that I put much of a mark on anything?

[iverglas]

20. eh?

The comments I quoted were in response to the article you quoted. You didn't write the article, I didn't write the comments. ;)

My own comments were in response to the article, and the related ongoing whining and hand-wringing and insulting and doom-saying engaged in by the Liberal hack and shill tagteam here.


Basically, I just have to say: the enemy of my enemy is not my friend.

Yes, life might be a little quieter under the Liberals. I still don't *want* to live under the Liberals.

This persistence in calling the Liberals "centre-left" is just nonsense. The Liberals are centre-right.



I am actually not averse to some sort of Liberal-NDP coalition, or Liberal minority propped up by NDP majority. In fact, I would have absolutely loved to see Dion go to Jean with a request to form a government last week. Just to say Fuck you, Harper, and your stinking game-playing with Parliament. I would have urged the NDP to indicate confidence. Not mine to choose, though.


I have no major quibble with what *you* said. Our parliamentary democracy operates on the party system. Parties represent interests. One party represents the interests that I want to see represented way more than the other parties do.

For one party to whine about another party trying to attract votes ... yeesh, yes. Anti-democratic, for starters.

And for anyone to suggest that I am a traitor because I want to see the party that represents the interests I want represented keep seats in the House ... vile. Just vile.

[CHIMO]

21. Thanks

Clears that up.

[HeresyLives]

22. You are being increasingly silly, Iverglas.

:eyes:

[IntravenousDemilo]

24. If it weren't for the CCF and later the NDP, the Liberals would be the same as the Conservatives.

Do you imagine that the Liberal Party of Canada has always believed in social justice when left to its own devices? No, of course it wouldn't be the compassionate bunch that it has become if the party hadn't been forced into it by New Democrats holding the balance of power in the Pearson and Trudeau minority governments. The Liberals are a party of convenience. It's why they have been so successful over the years. But with convenience, sometimes you find questionable ethics and pursuit of power for its own sake. To be truly liberal in the modern North American meaning of the word, the Liberals have had to have their feet held to the fire by social democrats.

[daleo]

23. Nanos is the only poll worth paying attention to

I say that, based on observing polling over the past two elections, not on wishful thinking.