People wary of Tory majority: Poll

[CHIMO]

OTTAWA — Canadians may be willing to re-elect Stephen Harper's Conservatives but they're hesitant about a Tory majority, a new national poll suggests.

The Decima survey put support for the Conservatives at 38 per cent — slightly higher than on election day but lower than other recent polls.

Forty-three per cent of respondents said they wanted to see the Conservatives win the next election, but just 30 per cent said they'd like to see Harper form a majority government.

He puts the public mood in these terms: "We're going to need the check and balance of a minority government — at least until we feel like we know more and are more confident in the balance, the centrism, the pragmatism that we like in our governments."

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1149198612061&call_pageid=968332188774&col=968350116467

[daleo]

1. So, who are the 5 pct who won't vote for Harper but want to see him back?

This seems peculiar.

[Bragi]

2. Sounds about right to me...

About 30 per cent want a Harper majority, and about 13 per cent want a Harper minority.

Meanwhile, though the majority of voters don't want a Harper government, they can nonetheless be counted on to distribute their votes non-strategically across 4 opposition parties, all of which (except for the Bloq) will deny that doing this will result in voters getting exactly what they don't want -- another Harper government.

The miracle of democracy in action.

- B

[jackbourassa]

3. This won't last...

Harper is enjoying a honeymoon right now. Not much of one at that. But like the above poster noted, he ultimately benefits from the split in the other parties (the opposition is rudderless right now). Wait until November and then Decemeber. In November, if the Democrats win in America - I believe Canadians will be more inclined to return to the Liberals (I seriously doubt Canadians want to move towards Bush at a time when Americans are moving away).

Second, in December, the Liberals will have elected a new leader (hopefully Bob Rae) and this will mark a new beginning for the party. The Libs will get a bump. All the taint of the past will be gone (remember this so-called scandal that toppled Martin, was actually from the 1990s - the opposition parties used it in every election since 2000 to no avail until last time, when dumbass Martin appointed that stupid commission.

The Liberals need to spend the next months beginning to build up their Quebec operations.

[V. Kid]

4. Errr... they aren't going to win with Bob Rae...

First off, while things change quickly, most of Quebec is pretty barren territory for the Liberals. They've been throughly discredited. I mean jeez, the fact that they lost ridings like Papineau is just ridiculous, when they won said ridings in 2000 by over 2:1 margins. If the Conservatives manage to screw things up, then those federalist voters who ran away from the Liberals could come back. But waiting for such a thing to happen is a passive strategy that could take years to come.

But as for Bob Rae, err...yeah. I don't think they'll choose him, for one he isn't a Liberal, capital L. He and Scott Brison are outsiders, so they may not have earned the trust of the average party member. Not to mention the fact that his negatives are just so high that it's ridiculous. Not to mention that it's unlikely that he'll have what it takes to reach out to blue liberals who have switched to voting for the Conservatives. Everytime he's mentioned, his tenour as the "former NDP Premier who lead the province for a tumultuous term from 1990-1995" is mentioned. Not to mention that even though many Liberals seem to think he'd appeal to former New Democrats, he'd likely do the opposite. There's a lot of animosity in the NDP directed towards him, and they'll likely be very motivated to defeating him. I could see an anybody but Bob movement forming during a Liberal Party convention. Also, even though his name is Bob, he sure doesn't come across as a Bob, he kind of reminds me of Stephen Harper (in that he's boring and kind of arrogant).

I think the two top Liberal candidates are Michael Ignatieff, and Gerrard Kennedy. If they're smart they'd pick Gerrard Kennedy, at least he's relativley inoffensive. Granted, in the 1996 Liberal leadership race in Ontario there was a movement that formed against him saying he was "too left", and even though he lead on the first and consequent ballots, they moved to block him, he's one of the few contenders with deep Liberal roots. Ignatieff, while extremely intellgent, has some questionable views to say the least, not to mention the fact that he's a little too smart and comes across as smarmy and out of touch. When he voted for continuing our participation in Afghanistan, he smeared the diffrence between him and the Conservatives. Granted, that may make him appealing to blue liberals, but it could put him on the wrong side of an increasingly unpopular policy.

Edit:

One last thing, I don't see why it would matter so much what government they have in the 'states. To be fair, a lot of Democrats would be considered far-right by Canadian standards. Defenetly on the right-wing of the Conservative Party. Joe Lieberman, Ben Nelson, much of the DLC etc, etc, are the types I'm thinking of.