SES/CPAC poll for Jan 20 (1053 decided voters)

[daleo]

National Cons 36.2 Lib 29.4 NDP 17.3 BQ 11.0 Gr 6.1 Undec 12.0

Atl. Cons 34 Lib 34 NDP 27 BQ 00 Gr 5 Undec 12
Que. Cons 27 Lib 18 NDP 09 BQ 44 Gr 3 Undec 13
Ont. Cons 35 Lib 39 NDP 17 BQ 00 Gr 8 Undec 14
West Cons 45 Lib 27 NDP 21 BQ 00 Gr 7 Undec 10

I still say this will be close, regardless of what the mainstream media is claiming.
- Atlantic Canada seems to be a dead heat, nearly a 3 way race.

- Conservatives polling higher than Liberals in Quebec, but can that translate into any seats? I really can't begin to guess on that one.

- Liberals are now ahead of Cons in Ontario. NDP not doing as well there as I might have thought, though. Greens are surprisingly high though, so some of that may go to NDP or Liberals.

- Conservatives way high in the west, but Alberta makes that hard to interpret. I have taken Alberta out by assuming Con 60%, Lib 20%, NDP 15%, Gr 5% in Alberta, and assumed they make up about one third of the west sample (yes, I am going way out on a limb and spotting Con 27 or 28 seats there, ha ha). That gives the non-Alberta west as Con 38%, Lib 31%, NDP 24%, Green 8%. Greens are high again, and that may flow to the NDP or Liberals.

I don't know, maybe I will be wrong, but I think both the popular vote and seat count will be pretty close.

There will be another CPAC/SES poll tomorrow.

[Darth_Kitten]

1. What's the margin of error?

Still, like everybody's been saying, how the support translates into actual seats remains to be seen. :)

I hope Ontario comes through strong for the Liberals.

[daleo]

2. For the overall poll, about 3% or so

Atlantic breakdown, about 10%
Quebec, about 6%
Ontario, about 5%
West, about 5%.

I think the west coast will decide the election. Agree about Ontario.

[Darth_Kitten]

3. It used to be the election was decided before the polls.....

even seemed to close in B.C.

How's it looking in B.C.?

[daleo]

4. I think it is close among all three parties there

The last regional breakdown SES/CPAC gave for BC was Con 33, Lib 33, NDP 29, Green 5. Undecided was 13.

I think Conservative support tends to be more inland, so this could go down to the wire. It would be a good idea to stock up on popcorn and liquid refreshments, I guess.

[Monkeybumper]

5. CFRB Toronto radio

Is predicting a slim majority for the conservatives going by ridings they are leading in

[daleo]

6. Perhaps, and slim at best

I think popular vote and seats won't be far apart. It raises the prospect that Jack Layton may be able to choose who he prefers to support to form a government. It also raises the prospect that Gilles Duceppe may be able to do the same.

[Darth_Kitten]

7. And who said canadian politics weren't weird?

:evilgrin: