The latest, latest SES CPAC poll (Fri Jan 20)

[Minstrel Boy]

Conservatives down, Liberals down, NDP up.

PDF here

Cons: 35.5%
Libs: 29.0%
NDP 18.8%
Bloc: 11.1%
Greens: 5.6%

Atlantic Canada
Cons - 40%, Lib - 35%, NDP - 22%, Green - 3%, Undecided - 11%
Montreal
BQ - 41%, Cons - 14%, Lib - 23%, NDP - 17%, Green - 5%, Undecided - 17%
Rest of Quebec
BQ - 41%, Cons - 28%, Lib - 16%, NDP - 8%, Green - 2%, Undecided - 16%
Toronto and the GTA
Cons - 36%, Lib - 37%, NDP - 20%, Green - 8%, Undecided - 13%
Southwestern ON
Cons - 44%, Lib - 37%, NDP - 15%, Green - 4%, Undecided - 15%
Northern and Eastern ON
Cons - 36%, Lib - 45%, NDP - 15%, Green - 4%, Undecided - 12%
Manitoba and Saskatchewan
Cons - 41%, Lib - 28%, NDP - 27%, Green - 4%, Undecided - 16%
Alberta
Cons - 55%, Lib - 26%, NDP - 11%, Green - 8%, Undecided - 13%
British Columbia
Cons - 33%, Lib - 33%, NDP - 29%, Green - 5%, Undecided - 13%

[iverglas]

1. any Greens around here we can bash?

This ain't Germany, this race ain't Nader/Gore even.

What a bunch of nice, well-intentioned people I'm sure Green voters are. I wonder how many of them have a clue what they're actually voting for. ... I wonder whether it's really wise to urge disaffected youth to vote after all ...

[Minstrel Boy]

2. informed votes are one thing

It's those who vote for the brand, without realizing who bought the firm and who's packaging the product - that would be former Progressive Conservatives - that get up my snout.

The leader of the Nova Scotia Green Party, Michael Oddy, is sold on the idea of switching allegiances and is urging Green Party members to vote NDP.

"We're in a situation where climate change is running amok and therefore we need to do something soon, and we're going to need some NDP MPs who are going to be holding these guys accountable," said Oddy, who ran federally for the Green Party in 2000 and 2004.

Oddy said the federal Green Party is now more right-wing than the Conservative party on many issues, and that's why he has abandoned it.
http://www.cbc.ca/ns/story/ns-layton-dartmouth20060118.html

[iverglas]

3. what you said

what I meant. ;)

An "informed vote" for the Greens would be a vote cast by someone who knew s/he was voting for a right-wing party whose virtually sole purpose in fielding candidates is to divert the ballots of naive lefty voters away from the NDP.

The Ottawa PieceOfShit Citizen -- formerly Black, now Asper -- has once again endorsed the Green candidate in Ed Broadbent's former riding, Ottawa Centre, for the love of mike.

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060118/elxn_green_vote_060119/20060119?s_name=election2006&no_ads=

The party has also put a phalanx of qualified candidates on the ballot this time around. For example, Chernushenko was recently named as deputy leader of the Green Party, is the owner of an international environmental consultation firm and has written three books on the subject.

In 2004, running in the Ottawa Centre riding against New Democrat Ed Broadbent, he was endorsed by the Ottawa Citizen as the candidate of choice and garnered more than 4,700 votes in that election.

It was a solid showing by Green standards, but he still trailed far behind the other parties. In fact, he wasn't even close, pulling in less than half of the votes received by the third place finisher.

Broadbent won the riding with 25,734 votes, the Liberal candidate followed with 19,478, while the Tory candidate received 11,933 votes.

Duh, eh? Anybody can't do that math? Especially when we start deducting for the current NDP candidate's lack of Ed's personal renown and reputation?

The Citizen knows as well as anyone that the Conservative candidate hasn't got a snowball's chance, even in January in Ottawa, and that the race is NDP-Liberal. Now, how stupid does someone have to be not to know why the Citizen endorsed the Green? Anybody but the NDP. Anybody but the NDP. *They* certainly seem to be able to tell the difference between orange and red.

Sure, the Citizen would probably endorse a Marijuana Party candidate if it had to, if it meant scraping some votes away from the NDP. So I can't blame the Greens for their "supporters". But there's enough to blame them for without that.



heehee. I was just googling around for Chernushenko, and came up with this; evil twins ...
http://www.freedominion.ca/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=48943&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=30&

If you are someone who is opposed to SSM, I can not understand why you would rather help elect a Liberal (a party that will not reopen SSM) just to beat a pro-SSM Conservative (a party that the leader has already promised to reopen the debate)

I dont know John P, but I am sure he is a principled guy worthy of supporting, but lets be frank. Any vote that goes away from Baird to John will help the Liberals.

... If you don't support the Conservatives,
GRRRRR...
Find another darn board! This is a Conservative one!

Funny thing is how they're bickering over whether to vote for Pacheco, a bigoted right-wing independent candidate (their natural preference), or Baird, a presumably less bigoted right-wing Conservative candidate (hard to choose, eh?) ... and the ad at the top of the page is:



Principles über alles, eh?

[Minstrel Boy]

5. "*They* certainly seem to be able to tell the difference between

orange and red."

Nicely put.

If only we could have a Halloween election.

[daleo]

4. It definitely looks like Conservatives have peaked

I would be surprised if they get more than 34% or 35% on election day. Even Strategic Counsel is now only claiming 37%. There seems to be a bit of Liberal-NDP volatility, so those will be hard to predict. Tuesday should be interesting.

[Manix]

6. In the West, Greens poll highest in Alberta! Interesting.

.

[CanSocDem]

7. The Con's are nervous in Sask.....

http://www.mysask.com/portal/site/pc-saskatchewan/template.MAXIMIZE/menuitem.0c847c8a90c8ec1588787f4480315ae8/?javax.portlet.tpst=4545cf302f6c148fa37d93af60315ae8_ws_MX&javax.portlet.prp_4545cf302f6c148fa37d93af60315ae8_viewID=article&javax.portlet.prp_4545cf302f6c148fa37d93af60315ae8_storyID=1398&javax.portlet.begCacheTok=token&javax.portlet.endCacheTok=token



...and I am confident we will get our NDP members back.

[jackbourassa]

8. If this keeps up...

...the NDP may finish 2nd.

Another interesting trend is the slippage of the Bloc in Quebec. They're at 41% now.

[V. Kid]

12. Yes and if the SES poll is true...

...the Conservatives have peaked in Quebec too, it seems like people just don't know who to vote for.

[tuvor]

9. Why do the regional breakdowns add up to well over 100%?

[iverglas]

10. looks like

the party breakdowns are out of *decided* voters only -- the party numbers total 100%. The "undecided" figure is 17% of all voters, e.g., while a 27% for one of the parties is 27% of decided voters.

[tuvor]

11. I'll bet you're right.

Thanks, iverglas!

[Swede]

13. Still a large number of undecideds.

It's gonna be interesting.