Listen to me very carefully......... Cons are winning.

[Swede]

I have no idea how,or why. Stephen Harpher may win. This fasicst,hater, awful lman man may win.

[CHIMO]

1. I Would

Put it differently. The Liberals are loosing it.

[Spazito]

2. LOL, and I agree

If the Cons pull this off, it will be by default, imo.

[CHIMO]

3. Liberals are ignoring strategy

OTTAWA -- The centre of operations in a political campaign is called a "war room" with good reason. On a daily basis, there are tactical manoeuvres, attacks and counter-attacks that, as in war, determine which party will inch forward and which will retreat. The whole object of the game is for the winning party, with daily tactical support, to execute a long-term strategic plan.

In this campaign, it is becoming increasingly obvious that the Liberal party war room is full of tacticians and bereft of strategists. Tacticians are the "gotcha" guys, those backroom (mostly) boys who drag up the embarrassing quote or candidate on the other guy's ticket.

But it is long-term strategy that wins elections, that establishes the "why" of an election -- the sense of coherence and direction that can galvanize the country around a question.

So obsessed are the Paul Martin Liberals with tactics that they actually rejoiced when Liberal spokesman John Duffy got into a televised dustup with veteran CTV journalist Mike Duffy on the latter's show last week.

http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Copps_Sheila/2006/01/14/1394402.html

From a veteran.

[Telly Savalas]

12. Interesting that you should post an article by Sheila Copps

when it's her fault that the Liberals are behind in the polls. Two key examples:

1. Why isn't Paul Martin's buddy Bono parading around Canada telling everybody what a great job Mr. Martin has done fulfilling his promises to boost foreign aid? It's because of Sheila Copps.

2. Every time the issue of patriotism comes up, Harper brings up the fact that the prime minister owns a business that had ships flying the flags of other countries such that he could dodge taxes. Since this is true, it leaves Martin in an undefensible position. Who's fault is this? Again, Sheila Copps.

Just imagine what kind of a nightmare the Liberals would find themselves in had they rejected the Churchillesque statesmanship of Paul Martin and had chosen Sheila Copps to be their leader.

[CHIMO]

13. Yep

It's all Sheila's fault.

Why don't we include Carol and Jean.
Pissing on the tent from the outside is something that CEO's don't seem to worry about.

I wonder if you are going to say pass the tequila!

[MrPrax]

15. Really...

I would have thought that if the NDP had collapsed the gov't last spring, then the Liberals probably would have had an easier time. In fact, Layton might have taken more seriously Liberal concerns of 'Xmas timing'. The NDP could have voted against the government if they actually had a strategy, instead of FEAR of being held accountable for causing another election.

What were they afraid of? Getting blown out? Losing patronnage appointments?

Here's one: Martin appointed even fewer women to cabinet? The NDP treat 'gender parity' as bedrock? You following me? Can you SEE what the NDP could have ALSO demanded last spring instead of more money for Liberal programs?

Now would Martin, if forced to appoint more women to cabinet, refuse? No, of course not. He couldn't.

The result would be that dipshits like Fry would be forced into cabinet (to be useless and vunerable to new dem attacks on the hustings like Van Center) and it would also tie Martin's hands as far as how much leverage he has regarding the to USE cabinet positions to lasso star candidates.
Do you believe that people like Dryden, Dosjani or Igneitiff would be so willing to run if they thought that cabinet positions wasn't entirely a gaurantee?

But then again, why don't the Liberals have a real party instead of a 'legacy' pledge more approriate for golf clubs than democracy?

[ClusterFreak]

4. Yupperrrrr....

Unless someone comes up with a picture of Stephen Harper in a compromising position with a halibut, or perhaps a sturgeon, the man with the shit-eating smile and the neo-con agenda, will be PM. I need a drink.

[AX10]

5. Canandians may be just as dumb as Americans have been?

In a week we'll know.

[daleo]

6. We saw a six point swing on election day last time

The last polls had Conservatives and Liberals each at about 31-32, and the election was 37-29 Liberal. I honestly expect a swing of about the same amount, which will make the result a tossup. Maybe I am unduly optimistic, but I tend to go on past performance.

[AX10]

7. Then a hung parliament will be the result.

Who will be the kingmaker, the NDP or the Bloc?

[daleo]

8. That is very possible

The Conservatives and Bloc would be a strange, and possibly dangerous government. Really, any party and the Bloc would be, so it is hard to imagine a scenario with them sharing power.

After all we have been through, Liberals and NDP would still be likely if their combined seat count did the trick, but they would certainly not care for each other on a personal level. I suppose Conservatives and NDP might hold for a short time, but not long.

A Liberal-Conservative coalition might even be a possibility (I believe Germany had a result like that last election). Again, they would hate each other with a passion, though.

Pretty well every possibility seems hard to stretch one's mind around, should the election be a dead heat. The GG will have a real problem, and she will be scrutinized unmercifully for signs of bias.

[AX10]

9. What's the "GG"?

[Telly Savalas]

11. Governor general.

I believe she's vested with the authority to declare who forms government. (e.g. if the Conservatives had a plurality of seats, but the Liberals+NDP held a majority and were willing to form a coalition, it'd be her call as to who becomes prime minister...I think.)

[daleo]

14. Yes that's basically it

Usually the Governor-General's position is purely formal, but this situation is one where he or she can exercise some real authority. There have been a few celebrated cases in history where this came about.

[Telly Savalas]

10. Why? Because the Liberal campaign is downright abysmal.

Granted, they are straight-jacketed a bit by their record and inability to keep old promises. Just a few thoughts on what they're doing wrong:

-They needed to attack the Conservative "child care plan" hard. They needed to aggressive hammer the point that $23 a week of taxable money doesn't come close to scratching the surface for child care costs. Rather than backing down from the "beer and popcorn" comment with insincere apologies, they should have made it a talking point that $23 taxable dollars a week is a lot closer to the average Canadian's beer and popcorn budget than it is the cost of child care. And most critically, they should be pointing out at every opportunity possible that a Harper government will destroy the nascent child care plan that would actually create new spaces.

-They also needed to do a much better job of driving home the point that cutting the GST to 5% will have what economists call "jack-shit" effect on the finances of people making less than $40K a year. It would have been a lot easier to go on the offensive on the GST issue if they didn't have the baggage of a broken promise to repeal it outright.

-On the accountablty/corruption issue there's a number of things they could do better. With respect to Adscam they needed much tougher rhetoric. They should have conceded that there were problems, but they won't tolerate that sort of shit so they cleaned house and now the Liberal Party has been purged of all elements involved. (Of course this only works if it's true, which is perhaps why they don't take this line.) Too often Liberals defend allegations of corruption by saying "there's no proof." That makes them sound guilty. They'd do better to turn the tables and call their accusers liars. "The Liberal Party is a clean institution and Stephen Harper is a goddamn liar to use unfounded rumours and inneundo to suggest otherwise!"

They also need to point out that there's absolutely zero evidence to suggest that the Conservatives wouldn't fall prey to corruption if they were given the helm. The Conservatives claim they've written up solid policy to increase accountability. Alright. If they're so goddamn concerned about getting such a bill passed, why didn't they introduce it in the last government? Is it perhaps because they don't really care about accountability and are just using this issue as a cheesey way of getting political brownie points? Crybaby Harper can whine about not being able to get his agenda passed because he's in opposition, but Layton got a good deal of NDP plans put in despite having a much smaller caucus. "We would have been more than happy to work with the opposition on creating a better set of rules for government accountability, but they we're too busy playing petty political games to cooperate."

-Finally the Liberals should be calling a lot more attention to the muzzled extremists in the Reform Party caucus. Don't just dig up really old Harper quotes demonstrating his right-wing radicalism. Get fresher quotes from his back-benchers from the last campaign. Do these folks still believe these things they said? If they do, why aren't you letting them speak their minds, Mr. Harper? If they don't, then can we will trust elected officials who do such abrupt political back-flips?

My list could go on, but this post is already too long as is. The tepid "we're Liberals. You always vote for us" campaign strategy has been a dismal failure. The Party needs new blood.

[iowasocialist]

16. What is going on up there, and why not NDP?

Why are so many Canadians, apparently, falling for the wolf-in-sheep's-clothing Conservatives, but won't give any consideration to voting for the NDP, if they just can't bear to vote Liberal?

Can someone please explain this to this Yank?

What is it about voters in both our countries that people do not seem to be looking at what Harper & Company would do to Canada, just as voters here didn't think about what Bush was going to do?

Granted, I am much more ideological, but I actually think about what a cnadidate is going to DO in office...Were that most voters did, too...

[daleo]

17. The latest CPAC/SES poll

Has Conservatives at 37%.
Liberals at 30%.
NDP at 18%.

So a considerable number are willing to vote NDP, which may result in Conservatives winning seats where the Liberal+NDP vote handily beats them. Centre-left vote splitting is a perennial issue in Canadian politics.

I think this vote will be much closer than the mainstream media is letting on. Our corporate media tilts right as well, although it doesn't get hung up (yet) on the so-called cultural issues.

[V. Kid]

18. Most don't consider the Liberals centre-left...

...so they wouldn't vote for them.

Besides, while Paul Martin is urging progressive voters to stay together, does that mean he thinks Liberals should be voting NDP in Conservative/NDP races? Or where the NDP is ahead of the Liberals? People should vote for whomever they think will do the best jost, with the best ideas, and such.

As for the media, they're pro-power/status-quo, without being exclusionary. So while I agree that they aren't socially conservative, that's because being socially conservative is bad for buisness. Some insitutes like CanWest had strong connections to the Liberals, the Aspers where friends with Chretien for instance. But now that the Conservatives are doing well, they don't want to be on the wrong side of the power fence.

Anyways other polls include.

EKOS (Toronto Star): CPC 35.8 / LPC 29.6 / NDP 19.4 / BQ 11.6 / GRN 3.4
Strategic Council (Bell): 40 / 27 / 16 /11 / 6
Ipsos-Reid (Canwest): 38 / 26 / 19 / * / 5 - This one is huge, with reasonable regional results:

*Quebec - Quebec: BQ48/L13/C25/N10/G3

http://www.canada.com/globaltv/national/story.html?id=78986680-7615-42f9-b948-d6d03c073e56


With one week to voting day, results of the Ipsos Reid poll show Conservatives continuing to lead nationally with a 12-point lead over the Liberals. Conservative support stands at 38 per cent, while the Liberals are at 26 per cent.

The Ipsos poll of 8,256 Canadians taken from Jan. 13-15 also shows the NDP rising one point to 19 per cent, and the Green Party holding steady at five per cent.

The poll is said to be accurate to within 1.1 per centage points 19 times out of 20.

Ipsos' seat projection model shows that if a vote were held tomorrow, the Tories would have a potential of securing 149-153 seats; the Liberals with 64-68; the NDP with 29-33; and the Bloc with 57-61.

[yvr girl]

19. Geography

The NDP has formed the government of several provinces, but they have never enjoyed enough support across the country to be anything other than a 3rd party.

The NDP has little support in Quebec which means that they would need to sweep Ontario in order to have a chance to form the government.