Can the Liberals rescue their terrible campaign?

[glarius]

The Liberals have run a terrible campaign....They have allowed Harper to re-invent himself as liberal lite....They should have been shouting from the roof tops that Ralph Reed the guy from the Christian Coalition in the U.S.A (he's currently under criminal investigation down there) was up here recently giving the Conservatives a blue print for getting elected....I actually saw him on CTS the religious network, at a lecturn talking to a group and saying that if they would follow his plan, they would certainly elect the Conservatives!... The Liberals should also be reminding Canadians over and over that Harper (who strikes me as a control freak) went on Fox TV and apologized for Canada not being in the Iraq war, since most Canadians are against that war....These two things alone would turn off most Canadians from swallowing his new line....

[Spazito]

1. I finally saw a hard-hitting Lib ad last night

It tied Harper to bush and the repubs, etc. I hope they have more than one and are putting their dollars on hard hitting ads.

[Emops]

2. Harper wants to turn Canada into the 51st state.

That would be a great approach for the Liberals to take.

[Spazito]

3. Here are the hard hitting ads by the Liberals

There are ten NEW ones, they start today:

http://www.liberal.ca/multimedia_e.aspx?id=70

(Thanks to Minstrel Boy for the link)

[Harper_is_Bush]

4. Right on both accounts

I hope the fear factor kicks in.

It's not a gimmick, I'm afraid of that guy. He's doing some kind of smiley bumbling Reaganesque routine to appear harmless. If he gets in (and GOD forbid got a majority) Canada would be in for a rude awakening.
We've never had a ruling party this far to the right.

[tuvor]

5. If we elect him, we deserve him.

I hate to say it but it's true.

[V. Kid]

6. It might be too late...

...but it's their own fault, they should've run a much better campaign. They shouldn't have as Ducceppe said "campaigned like an NDP'ers and governed like a Tory". The problem as it were is that the Liberals thought they could simply make Harper the issue, even though they're the incumbents. Of course people are going to pay attention to Harper, the man who would be Prime Minister, thing is though, that they're not only going to pay attention to him. They'll pay attention to the Liberals too. See Harpers idea of just announcing something everyday was a good idea. Martin should've done the same thing, albiet in a diffrent way. Two days of talking about his record, and one of future plans (or thereabouts). And so on...

Also, PMPM has been sort of weak. He's sounding more strident now that his back is against the wall, but really, you can only come back from the grave so many times, and then people just get tired of you. It's unfortunate that the NDP didn't say "choose the third option", and position themselves as seriously wanting to form goverment, because I don't think people so much care about Harper's positions, which they're just like "meh, whatever", they see that he'll "kick the bums out" so they're going to him. A pity really, because it would be like cutting ones nose off to get at a blackhead, but whatever.

[glarius]

7. I believe what has happened is that Harper, who is absolutely an extremely

right-wing person, has been able to disguise himself as a moderate...almost liberal. Anyone watching his carefully choreographed performances would never guess that he has said the things he has. The things in the Liberal ads which are attributed to him are all correct, but with his smooth, innocent sounding denials, he has fooled the people....I think, instead of just sort of giving little snippets of Harpers past statements about Canada etc., the Liberals should have been more forceful and got a copy of his Fox TV appearance, where he apologized to America for us not joining the Iraq war. I think if they put that in an ad it would really turn Canadians off. All I can pray now is that if he is elected, along with the neanderthals who came along from the old Reform party, it is only a minority government.

[Pierre Trudeau]

8. at this point, probably not

The Liberals have screwed up so royally throughout this campaign, it's difficult to see how they'd ever recover.

Don't put too much faith in those attack ads either. I expect them to backfire completely, especially with Liberal credibility so shaky right now. So even the stuff that's true still radiates doubt.

That "soldiers" ad that never aired is the height of stupidity, and will cast its shadow on all the other ads. How could they even allow that one to be made?!? Obviously the first thing anyone's going to do is bring up Trudeau and the War Measures Act, which Harper dutifully did (conveniently forgetting that former conservative PMs MacDonald, Borden and Mulroney ALL sent in federal troops to quash uprisings). But 1970 is such a vivid example. The Liberals really screwed themselves on that one. Especially because the original proposal is hardly alarming, and if the same thing had been proposed by Paul or Jack, few of us would give it a second thought.

At this point, I can't bring myself to defend the Liberals any further, even if it means resigning myself to a Harper government (at least it's very unlikely to be a majority). In fact, in the long run it would be better for the Liberals to lose this election: it will give them a chance to regroup, refresh, perhaps dump Martin as leader, and maybe even coax back some of the old Trudeau/Chretien people who left the party when Martin took over (Allan Rock, Brian Tobin, etc.) In opposition, they can rebuild their forces (and for heaven's sake get some focus), and when PM Harper starts screwing up as he inevitably will, and the honeymoon is over, a new improved team could sweep back in.

In the meantime, I can vote for the NDP with a clear conscience. Even if it means a Harper victory, at least the case can be made that the NDP actually deserve my vote. But unfortunately, I don't think this election will play out very well for them either. :(


PS. One thing though I will give Mr. Martin credit for: "America is our neighbour, it is not our nation."
He actually made it sound spontaneous at the debate, although I'm sure it was not.

[glarius]

9. I wouldn't mind if Harper gets ONLY a minority government, but

if he does get a majority, I think he will go full steam ahead and do all the damage he can as soon as possible....I agree the Liberals need new blood and Martin is a dud in my opinion....:)

[Swede]

10. A day is an eternity in an election still holds true.

[TrogL]

11. I'm sitting this one out

They've made so many blantant errors that I've decided not to work for them except possibly on election day as a scrutineer. It's just plain embarassing.

Hell, I may even vote NDP as it looks like that's the strategic non-Conservative vote in this riding.

[daleo]

12. I think the so-called negative ads by the Liberals are taking effect

Check the CPAC/SES polls, which I personally find the most trustworthy:

http://www.sesresearch.com/main.asp

Granted, it is just the last day or two of a rolling poll but:
- Liberal slide seems to have been arrested in Atlantic Canada.
- Same in Quebec, and it is likely that some Conservative support there will flow back to the Liberals in the next week or so. A fair bit of the Conservative support in Quebec looks to be in solid BQ areas anyway.
- Slide has stopped in Ontario, and Conservatives are trending down there. A lot will depend on strategic voting there.
- Slide has reversed in the west, and Liberals are back on the upswing, particularly in BC. Again, a lot will depend on strategic voting.

This will be a lot closer than the media is letting on. They (for the most part) are attempting to generate a bandwagon effect for the Conservatives, though, so you won't see much of this in the papers.

[V. Kid]

13. SES isn't very good..

...they over-estimated the NDP last time, and now they're completely out of whack compared to the other ones. I think Ipsos seems like the best one, as they're most inline with others. Ekos is decent too. I'm not sure about Strategic Council though, considering their methadology.

Ipsos - Con 37, Lib 29, NDP 18, Grn 5

http://www.canada.com/globaltv/national/story.html?id=7416d206-5cd5-4bef-8212-a4356077eb71

[daleo]

15. I don't associate them with the major corporate media so much

So, I tend to think they are more likely to be objective. There are so many ways to bias poll results that I tend to go with the poll I perceive to have the least bias behind it. It is just a hunch, though and I may be wrong.

My sense was their track record was better last time, but I haven't examined it scientifically or anything.

[V. Kid]

14. Are the Liberals progressive, NOPE.

I didn't know where to put this, but I thought it might be appropriate to put it here. See, I really think it'll suck to have PM Harper, as a PM. He's such a lamewad. And Canada is far too cool for him. Otoh, the Liberals, are just lame. Well anyways without further ado here's an article I read in 24 hours by Bill Tielman. And it really describes how the Liberals, a party that rushes to be progressive during election campaigns, has lost voters like moi.

Click on Bill Tielman's column here: http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/Columnists/NewsViewsAttitude/

Would the progressive choice for voters be the Paul Martin whose Canada Steamship Lines runs ships under flags of convenience countries like Liberia and the Bahamas rather than Canada? Whose company fired Canadian crews and replaced them with foreign workers?

Would David Emerson, the Vancouver-Kingsway Liberal cabinet minister, be the progressive guy who, as chair of B.C. Ferries, decided new ferries should be built in foreign shipyards instead of B.C.?

Was he also the CEO of Canfor, one of the forest companies that have failed to stop the needless deaths and injuries of loggers?

Is Vancouver East Liberal candidate Dave Haggard the progressive former president of the woodworkers union who did absolutely nothing while a corrupt local union leader took members' money for personal profit?

How progressive is Vancouver Centre Liberal MP Hedy Fry, who became a national embarrassment by falsely accusing Prince George of "cross burning" and used dirty tricks to keep her Liberal nomination in 2004.

What's progressive about "Liberal" MP Keith Martin, a former Reform/Alliance/Conservative member who betrayed the party that supported him for years and who so strongly advocates for privatized health care that Paul Martin won't be seen with him in B.C.?

How progressive are the new federal Liberal recruits from the provincial Gordon Campbell government?

Former B.C. Liberal MLAs Joyce Murray, running in New Westminster-Coquitlam, Brenda Locke, in Fleetwood-Port Kells, and Sheila Orr, in Saanich-Gulf Islands, were part of the wrecking crew that slashed services, broke legal contracts with unions and sold off B.C. Rail.

That's the worst part. And when you insult the base, you get your but kicked.