Oct 21 Progressive polling group: McDonnell pulling away

[autorank]

This is just terrible. But this polling group has been excellent. They called Obama's Maryland through Florida wins right on target. In 2005, McDonnell lost Northern Virginia 60% to 40% and worse in many precincts. Now the guy is leading a clean sweep. Am I having a nightmare or will that start after the Inauguration.

Public Policy Polling
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/10/mcdonnell-pulling-away.html

Bob McDonnell has opened up a double digit lead over Creigh Deeds in his quest to be Virginia's next Governor. He now leads 52-40, up from 48-43 three weeks ago.

McDonnell's standing is largely the result of two things: considerable support from independents and a disengaged Democratic electorate. With independents, who tend to split pretty evenly, the Republican leads 60-31. And while Barack Obama won Virginia by six points last year, the voters planning to turn out this fall supported John McCain by six points, a clear indication that many Democratic voters are just planning to stay at home.

That lack of Democratic enthusiasm has been the story for much of the general election campaign. 56% of McDonnell supporters say they're 'very excited' about voting this fall while only 34% of Deeds' backers share that sentiment.

During September Deeds had seemed to get some momentum with the 'thesis' issue but now 54% of voters say they think his campaign has put too much focus on that. 69% of Republicans predictably feel that way but so do 62% of independents and even 30% of Democrats.

Snip


We still don't find evidence of a lot of Obama/McDonnell voters- they account for less than 5% of the electorate. Deeds' problems are almost exclusively due to his inability to engage the Democratic base.

[Mike Daniels]

1. Unless a picture of McConnell wearing a ball gag with a goat in the background appears w/in the week

I think you can safely stick a fork in the race for Virginia's next governor. I have to say I'm not surprised though as Deeds ran one of the most incompetent campaigns I've seen in a while.

This is the killer especially when you consider that it was the independent vote that swung Virginia to Obama...With independents, who tend to split pretty evenly, the Republican leads 60-31.

[autorank]

2. Yep, here's how bad it is.

I wrote about Obama's mid-Atlantic sweep, the best period of the primaries. He was kicking it big time.
Look at those figures in primary turnout between 2004 and 2008 in Virginia. That's what is lost in this 2009 contest. Those people came out - and it's black and white voters coming out - and made a statement. It's not negative coattails for Obama. He could have been more forceful on thek economy but that's not it. It's the absence of a candidate who appeals to those people. Deeds is just not the guy.

I was precinct captain in 2005 of a very large Fairfax County precinct with a wealthy demographic. Deeds beat McConnell 65% - 32% and beat McDonnell 60%-40% in the county at large. But now turnout will be down and this will be very different.

I wanted Moran but we got "Deeds Country." Too bad for the voters who don't pay attention though. It's not all the same. McDonnell is a true believer and Cuchinelli is way out there, a real embarrassment for the state. I'm talking to people and they don't get it - they will, big time. I'm going to vote for Deeds and the ticket but and I'm really sorry for people in Virginia who don't. It will be an ugly morning when they wake up and see whose next to them.


From: SNAP! “White Shift” for Obama in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida


North Carolina (”NC+”) above did not have a 2004 presidential primary.
The figure used for “2004 Dem – N.C.” is an estimate.
See "Michael Collins – Election 2008: The Difficulty of Stealing it This Time"



The dramatic shift in projected 2008 white voting is evident for each state.
It demonstrates the potential for a strong 2008 “White Shift” to Sen. Obama.
Produced by Public Policy Polling: Introduction Report link below:
"White Voters in the South: An Introduction" by Tom Jensen, Oct. 11, 2008

The "spread in Virginia among white voters from 2004 to 2008 is dramatic - 20% white shift to Democrats.

(-) 13 points for those supporting a Republican; (+) 7 points for those supporting Obama among whites--a plus 20% spread for Democrats.

At that time, Obama was perceived as a 'Liberal.' So what's the perception of Deeds.
When this happened, I wondered if the state party would get it. Guess not.

[Neurotica]

3. Considering what might happen next week, it's a sad day when Bolling looks

reasonable by comparison. We are really going to be in trouble. Not just at the state level, but at the local level too.

I have also tried to inform people about McDonnell and Cuccinelli (the WaPo article on Cuccinelli's plan to remake the role of AG was telling). However, their eyes just glaze over. People just seem very disaffected right now. I think the right-wingers will come out to vote in droves while a fair number of moderates/independents will stay home.

I wonder how bad things will have to get before people wake up? (And more importantly, before they get motivated to get involved and vote?)

[autorank]

6. Bad things have to and will happen before the great awakening

You're dead on and good for you spreading the word. It's frustrating when I say, 'This is really serious. Here's the deal ... " and they go, "Oh" - usually but not always.

This will cause a real rebellion in No. VA and there will be lots of "I told you so" - which will be true. What can Northern Virginia or any other part of the state do after the fact? Not one single thing. Although given how odd things are, I wouldn't be surprised to hear a whisper of "We want to be our own state." Maybe not but in these times.

Last time the Republicans ran things, Kilgore ran a $3.0 billion deficit and did the cake walk, no "consequences." This will be that level of mismanagement plus targeted cuts to get rid of social programs they don't like. I fear for the right to choose, CPS programs, programs for the poor, on down the line.

I'm stunned that a guy who lost Northern Virginia 60%-40% against Deeds in 2005 is going to walk away with this. But it will sure wake people up when McDonnell wins and, despite the backlash, gets put forward as a presidential candidate. It won't work but it's their only shot at that, one of their own, a Regent University trained "ruler."

:argh:

[Neurotica]

8. Unfortunately, people often have to be directly affected before they act

And it is a challenge to educate people. I'm a NoVa resident to your west, and in the past, it usually took an attack on public education or public libraries to compel people to do something.
There are groups of very involved people, and then many others who say they care but who are "too busy" to do much of anything. I'm a mom, and I understand, but at some point, you have to consider the potential consequences of your inaction.

About five years ago, when a particular issue with broad implications arose in our school system, we got some friends of friends together and explained to them what was going on, who was behind it, and what it meant for all of us. We provided enough background information to concern people, but not enough to overwhelm them, and suggested they do some research of their own. After they looked into it themselves, everyone was committed to helping and we made a difference. Caveat - these people were already "doers."

The regular "too busy" people will need to be impacted and I predict that they will. I fear for all the same things that you mentioned.

[Blue_Tires]

4. not a good race by Deeds

while mcdonnell's campaign for the most part has been well-focused and pretty smart...

ugh....the bottom line is the GOP just wanted it more, and planned accordingly...a lot of dems in the state seemed to stop caring after Mcauliffe lost, and that attitude is reflected in the effort...

[carrowsboy]

5. Oh well...

Not going to stop me...

I'll be out at the polls bright and early on Tuesday morning casting my votes for Deeds - Wagner - Shannen.

If the Repigs do win and I start hearing bullshit about how it is a repudiation of Obama, then I will shout at the top of my lungs how in 2001 those lowlifes were adament that Warner's win was not a repudiation of Bush and how he still went on to "win" in '04.

[autorank]

7. Not republication of Obama at all

Other than failing to get out Obama's huge 600,000 net new Democratic voters who showed up at the 2008 primary and who followed through on election day. That's the sad part. I "personed" the precinct from start to finish in 2005 for the party and watched what they call vote counting, which is totally pathetic. There was decent turnout and gave out the majority of sample ballots - 65% to be exact. People were openly dismissive of the Republicans who had a tend, coffee and doughnuts, and 5 people.

If you look at 2005 it was really 54% for the forces of reason with Kaine + Potts.

2005 Governor

T M Kaine -- Democratic -- 1,025,942 -- 51.72%
J W Kilgore -- Republican -- 912,327 -- 45.99%
H R Potts Jr -- Independent -- 43,953 -- 2.22%
Write Ins -- 1,556 -- 0.08%
http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/ElectionResults/2005/nov2005/html/

I'll do what you're doing and I'll eat crow gladly if this turns around. But it's like one of my favorite Democrats said when he ran for Gov. of Louisiana as an incumbent against David Duke:
"They'll have to find me in bed with a live boy or a dead girl for me to lose this race." Unfortunately, the show is on the other foot here.

But Nov 8, 2011 - 40 Senators; 100 delegates; 95 County Boards of Supervisors; 84 School Boards; and more.