What's the polls showing in VA Kerry vs Bush?

[RamboLiberal]

I met a college student last weekend in Pittsburgh who's heading to William and Mary next month and wants to work for Kerry campaign. He was a little downtrodden thinking VA is not in play. But I told him I thought VA was not a sure state for Bush.

What's the word down there. I'd like to give him some good news if I run in to him again. Thanks.

[SaveElmer]

1. Closer than usual...

But probably still a bit of a long shot!

[billybob537]

2. Do you mean pResident Bush*

OR WHOOPI'S BUSH???

[MallRat]

3. 7/8/04, Survey USA: Bush 50, Kerry 45

This is bad, bad news for Bush. A 5-point lead in a reliably "red" state translates to lots of problems in "purple" states.

If Kerry is anywhere near being competitive in Virginia, he wins the election.

-MR

[childslibrarian]

4. Tell him to try...

Edwards being VP brings alot to this race...it is not a sure thing.
Besides, so many people from Virginia are actually from somewhere else it could impact other states.

[electricmonk]

5. Here in Roanoke

In the SW part of the state I'm seeing easily 3 to 1 Kerry bumperstickers over * stickers. I have yet to see a * yard sign but Kerry ones are popping up like weeds after a spring shower. Not to mention the HUGE turnout for F/911 here. Granted I spend most of my time within the city limits and it is a Democratic stronghold but still it's nice to see.

[Butterflies]

15. I've seen several bush yard signs go up in the last 2 weeks

While driving down Grandin Rd near the 419 intersection I counted 7 bush signs (though 2 were in one yard). Then on Colonial near the Community College I saw 2 more signs.

I still see more Kerry signs, but the bush ones are slowly appearing now. It has made me feel a little more worried.

I'm glad to know there are other Roanokers on this board!

[WMliberal]

6. tell them they have no chance of registering to vote in Billyburg,

but there is plenty they can do. William and Mary YD's are very active and successful, so if they want to help, the YD's will find something that needs to be done. Virginia is in play. Maybe Bush will end up winning, but active Democrats can make Bush waste a lot of time and money that would otherwise be spend in closer battleground states.

[Only Me]

7. I live in SW Virginia, and I believe this is going to be a close

state. Usually it is PURE repub, but I feel a stir in the water so to speak...I really think that if we can get the turn out at the poles, we have a good chance of taking this state.

I have meet alot of disgusted repubs and alot of Dems that simply don't vote, never vote, but might this time...I just wished so many SW Virginians would stop voting republican because of one issue, and look at the overall scheme of things, it is soooo frustrating!

[kegler14]

8. Larry Sabato was WVTF this morning

and he thinks Kerry will carry Virginia only if he does well enough to win the election nationally something like 53-47. On the other hand he also thinks Bush is in lots of trouble at this point. He compares his position now to that of his father, Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter. The only president in similar shape who did win re-election was Truman, and we know how close that one was.

Of course he also warns that it's only July and with Iraq and the economy in flux, things could change real fast.

[WMliberal]

9. Sabato = Captain Obvious

He's WAAAAAY overrated as a commentator. Has anyone ever seen him go out on a limb making a prediction? Saying that Kerry will win Virginia if he wins nationally is a first-year of political science no-brainer. In ANY political system of winner-take-all voting, when the winning candidate wins by a comfortable margin he'll carry even in unexpected areas.
How about Sabato commentating on what conditions SPECIFIC TO VIRGINIA will affect Kerry's or Bush's chances in the Old Dominion? He won't. He has to be vague in order to be right. He's like the horoscope writer pf political debate.

[kegler14]

10. Sabato may be overrated

but in this case, as I said, he thinks Kerry doesn't have a prayer in Virginia unless it isn't close overall (whcih seems unlikely to me and to Sabato). He did say some more but I've forgotten what it was. He mainly focused on the fact that at this point it appears Bush is in a lot of trouble. Personally, I don't give a darn whether or not Kerry wins Virginia as long as he wins the whole thing.

[magnolia]

11. I heard Tim Kaine...

...speak today in Middlesex, a small tidewater community. He said that Northern Virginia votes democrat, and Richmond and other cities vote democrat. To win we need the small rural areas. Every little bit counts. Even a few percentage points. That's how Mark Warner won.

[underpants]

12. Route 58 Route 58 Route 58

That is how Warner won. Kerry and/or Edwards can win Va. if the spend 2 days on Route 58 and also dip into/over to Tenn. WV and NC.

No one pays them any attention and nationally it will show the rural areas that they at least are aware of them.

[DCdem87]

13. got some great news 4 u!

hey...virginia is definitely in play this year. the most recent poll has bush ahead by only 3 points! go to http://www.electoral-vote.com/ and you can see the specifics as well as how much of a chance Kerry really has to take Virginia and the country!

[WMliberal]

14. WELCOME to DU DCdem!!!!!!!

n/t