In Virginia, At the Wire, Momentum Raises Kaine: ( Poll - Kaine by NINE!)

[Buck Turgidson]

12 hours until polls open in Virginia, Democrat Tim Kaine defeats Republican Jerry Kilgore, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 656 likely Virginia voters, conducted for WSLS-TV in Roanoke and WUSA-TV in Washington DC. This tracking graph tells the story. In June, the Republican Kilgore led by 10. In August, Kilgore led by 5. In September, Kilgore led by 3. In October, the Democrat Kaine led by 2. Today, Election Eve, Kaine leads by 9. Interviews for this survey were conducted before a last-second appearance by President Bush scheduled for this evening, 11/7, on behalf of Kilgore. It is unclear what impact President Bush's 11th-hour visit will have. Since SurveyUSA's most recent poll 3 weeks ago on 10/17, Kilgore has lost 13 points among male voters. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 15 among men. He finishes down 5. Over the summer, Kilgore led among women by 5. At the finish line, he is down 14 among women. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 19 among Virginia's whites. At the finish line, Kaine is up by 1. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 4 among Independents. At the finish line, he trails by 21. Over the summer, Kaine led by 23 points among Moderates. At the finish line, Kaine still leads, but now by twice as much, 46 points. Over the summer, Kilgore led by 11 among Suburban voters. At the finish line, Kaine leads by 9. As the suburbs go, so goes Virginia? We shall see. Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner is term limited; the Governor's seat is open.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=01f6575a-20e3-49b5-9a6f-24fd04944663

[FSogol]

1. Good news, Thanks.

Make sure your friends get to the polls tomorrow.

[Zynx]

2. If the break down by party there is accurate, Kaine should actually get

around 51%, about a point lower since Republicans have about a four point edge in party registration. However, Kaine's huge lead among independents should be enough to win I should think. Kilgore will probably get around 46-47% with Potts getting 2-3%.