Bill White, Rick Perry Tied 43-43 in PPP Poll; Rick Chicken Perry Loses Independents

[sonias]

Burnt Orange Report 6/22/10
Bill White, Rick Perry Tied 43-43 in PPP Poll; Rick Chicken Perry Loses Independents

New numbers from PPP in the Governor's race confirm what many of us have been feeling for months: it's neck and neck. Their numbers show Bill White currently tied 43-43 with failed incumbent Rick Perry, whose negatives continue to climb. White, meanwhile, has reversed Perry's 11-point lead with independents to currently lead 42-36 among the group. From Public Policy Polling:

Texas would seem an unlikely candidate to provide Democrats their biggest win of the election cycle but the Governor's race there is a reminder that candidates matter. Perry is an unusually weak incumbent, while White is an unusually strong challenger. Only 36% of voters in the state like the job Perry is doing while 49% disapprove. Among independents the numbers are particularly bad- just 27% give Perry good marks to 55% who think he's doing a poor job. White meanwhile is better known and better liked than most challengers running across the country this year. 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 25% with an unfavorable one and he posts positive numbers with independents at a 35/24 spread.

The BOR thread has more interesting analysis on the cross tabs.

That's more like it!
:bounce::bounce::bounce:

YeeHaw!!!

:dem:

[sonias]

1. DU thread in GD

TX-Gov: White Catches Up to Perry in New PPP Poll

Go give it a kick so more on DU can see the great news!

:kick:

[onestepforward]

6. Done!

This is wonderful news! Go Bill!

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

[mbperrin]

15. Done!

Great news!

[sonias]

2. Texas Governor: Tied

Public Policy Polling 6/22/10
Texas Governor: Tied

One of the biggest questions about the 2010 election cycle, which we still don't really know the answer to, is whether it will be solely an anti-Democratic year or more broadly an anti-incumbent year. Our newest Texas poll would seem to suggest voter fatigue toward long serving politicians in both parties- Republican Governor Rick Perry is now tied at 43 with Democratic challenger Bill White.

Texas would seem an unlikely candidate to provide Democrats their biggest win of the election cycle but the Governor's race there is a reminder that candidates matter. Perry is an unusually weak incumbent, while White is an unusually strong challenger. Only 36% of voters in the state like the job Perry is doing while 49% disapprove. Among independents the numbers are particularly bad- just 27% give Perry good marks to 55% who think he's doing a poor job. White meanwhile is better known and better liked than most challengers running across the country this year. 37% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 25% with an unfavorable one and he posts positive numbers with independents at a 35/24 spread.

In almost every race in the country right now Republican voters are more unified around their candidates than Democrats are and independents are leaning toward the GOP. Texas is running against the national grain on both of those counts- White is winning 15% of Republicans while Perry gets just 10% of Democrats and White also has a 42-36 advantage with independent voters.

Things look promising for White but Texas is still a conservative state where Barack Obama is exceedingly unpopular and that could end up proving to be too much for him to overcome. It may end up that White is the right candidate just running in the wrong cycle. But for now this looks like a surprisingly strong opportunity for Democrats and a race that could certainly end up as one of the most closely watched in the country.

I hope that we can keep up the trend and actually realize our dream of defeating Ricky, Chicky, Chicky! :)

[sonias]

3. White and Perry Tied?

Texas Observer 6/22/10
White and Perry Tied?
Public Policy Polling released shows the candidates tied at 43 percent; a 5 percent drop for Perry

Public Policy Polling just released their first poll in four months. They show Gov. Rick Perry and challenger Bill White tied with 43 percent each. That means Perry has dropped from a six point lead since the last PPP poll came out four months ago. The telephone poll, which took place between June 19 and 21, surveyed 500 Texas voters and had a 4.4 percent margin of error.

A few observations:

• Guv Mansion, not White House. The poll shows that 69 percent of Texans do not want to see Perry run for president, and that sentiment goes across party lines. In fact, 61 percent of Republicans explicitly do not want to see the governor make a bid for the Oval Office. The national press (not to mention Texas Monthly) has been harping on the idea of a Perry candidacy for months, and despite Perry's persistent denials, some of his actions—like an unexpected trip to Israel—seem to say otherwise.

• Trust me. This isn't a Rasmussen poll. Rasmussen has been taking hits from all sides lately and its poll results have met with skepticism. PPP still has quite a bit of credibility in Texas, and this poll will be harder to dismiss. The infamously wonky polling site fivethirtyeight.com actually went through and ranked polling groups, and PPP ranks relatively well.

:kick:

[sonias]

4. New poll shows Perry, White in a tie

Texas Politics Houston Chronicle 6/22/10
New poll shows Perry, White in a tie

A new Texas survey by Public Policy Polling has found former Houston Mayor Bill White in a dead 43-43 tie with Gov. Rick Perry in this year's governor's race.

This comes just a week after Rasmussen Reports showed Perry leading 48-40.

Not much has happened in the week to cause the difference in poll results, but both are close to the margin of error in their polls. Rasmussen had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, and Public Policy's survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. With a little addition and subtraction, you can get almost the same result in both polls.

Overall, however, the polls are good news for White because he appears to be solidly in the low 40s while continuing to build statewide name identification, while Perry remains under the magic 50 percent + one needed to win.

:toast: to Bill White. Keep it going Bill!

[sonias]

5. Perry and White are tied in governor's race, says new poll

PoliTex Fort Worth Star-Telegram 6/22/10
Perry and White are tied in governor's race, says new poll

Giving Texas Democrats a boost in advance of their state convention in Corpus Christi this week, a newly released poll shows that former Houston mayor Bill White has advanced into a tie with incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in his bid to become the first Democratic governor since the mid-1990s.

The survey by Public Policy Polling shows the Republican governor and his Democratic challenger deadlocked at 43-43, erasing a 48-42 lead that Perry held in a PPP survey four months ago. White made his gains by picking up more independents and cross-over voters than Perry did, said the pollsters.

"Bill White has the potential to give Democrats their biggest bright spot on what will probably overall be a bad election in November," said Dean Debnam, president of the Raleigh, N.C., polling firm. "A win in the Texas Governor race would be huge for the party and instantaneously make White on of the most prominent Democrats in the country."

The poll also showed that only 10 percent of Texas voters want to see Perry run for president in 2012, compared to 69 percent who prefer that the state's longest-serving governor stay in Texas. Those sentiments cuts across party-lines, said the pollsters, noting that 61 percent of Republicans are against a Perry run for president.

only 10 percent of Texas voters want to see Perry run for president in 2012

I really want Perry to run for President in 2012 - no really I seriously want him to be the republican nominee for President. :evilgrin:

[white cloud]

8. Perry and Sily Sarah 2012

Drill, baby, Spill, Run, baby,

[sonias]

9. That might acutally be a very good slogan for them

The way they both speak - they both would think it was a winning slogan!

:fistbump:

[TEXASYANKEE]

7. Unlike some races,

where you just want the incumbent voted out -- Bill White is an *exceptional* candidate. I hope Texas voters will see that not only is he a better option than Rick Chicken Perry, he really would make a wonderful TX Governor. Go Bill White!

[sonias]

10. I think that's why he's picking up Republican support too

Lets face it - moderate Republicans have nowhere to turn in Texas but to the Democrats. They have to see that the destructive policies of Perry and his crew are ruining Texas. And periodically people know you have to clean up the mess. That time is here, and White would be a great leader to get us out of this ditch Perry drove us into.

I just hope the people of Texas will seriously consider this race in November as super important. Just as important as a Presidential election year race. If huge numbers of people were to turn out - we could turn Perry out of here!

:bounce::bounce::bounce:

[sonias]

11. Poll: Rick Perry And Bill White Tied (TPM)

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/06/poll-rick-perry-and-bill-white-tied.php?ref=fpc">Talking Points Memo 6/22/10
Poll: Rick Perry And Bill White Tied

(snip)
The poll has Perry and White at 43% each. The survey of registered voters has a ±4.4% margin of error. A key indicator of Perry's vulnerability is that his approval rating is only 36%, with 49% disapproval, while White has a favorable rating of 37%-25%. In the horserace cross-tabs, Perry leads among Republicans by 74%-15%, White leads among Democrats by 76%-10%, and White leads with independents by 42%-36%.

The TPM Poll Average has Perry ahead of White by 46.1%-40.8%.

Another important number, which should concern Perry in light of his growing national profile as a leader among Tea Party-style Republicans, is this question: "Do you think that Rick Perry should run for President in 2012?" The answer is only Yes 10%, No 69%.

I do so love it when this kind of news gets national attention!:)

[sonias]

12. Oh and here's standing with Perry - again

Paul Burka 6/22/10
Public Policy Polling: White, Perry tied at 43% (Updated)
(snip)
The key numbers here are the Perry job disapproval rates. A couple of days ago, I noted Perry’s "strong disapproval" rate in the latest Rasmussen poll. PPP’s numbers are much worse for Perry. Rasmussen made the point that strong approval and disapproval are more important at this stage of a campaign than the overall numbers. But 49% is off the charts bad for Perry. Is it believable? My answer would be "somewhat." Perry has never gotten a lot of respect. He is a polarizing figure. The only real hope White has in this race is that the electorate will come down with a bad case of Perry fatigue.

In the previous PPP poll, Perry led White by 48-42. PPP attributes the turnaround to a shift by indepents to White. In the earlier poll, independents supported Perry 47-36. In this poll, they support White 42-36.

Do I think that the race is tied? Absolutely not. Do I think that Perry fatigue could be real? Absolutely. But this is going to be a long and bitter campaign, and until we get to the air war, what happens now doesn't mean very much.

Oh Burka's poor little Perry boy never gets any respect. Wah, wah, wah.... Both are a couple of crybabies.

[sonias]

13. TX-Gov: Tied up

Daily Kos 6/22/10
TX-Gov: Tied up
With an approval/disapproval rating of 36/49, Perry is suffering from voter fatigue. The GOP base may love his secessionist rhetoric -- and they still support him 69-14, but moderates are flocking to White by a 62-23 margin.

Taking the governor's race in Texas would help Democrats rhetorically offset losses elsewhere in the post-election narrative battle. What kind of anti-Democratic year gives us a Democratic governor in Texas, of all places?

:kick:

[kjackson227]

14. Great news, indeed! Ole Slick Rick's days might be numbered, afterall!

[white cloud]

16. Great keep on

Let roll these turds out to sea.

[sonias]

17. But that would be more pollution for the gulf

No, I know what you mean about turning them out. I think they should be buried in sludge myself. :evilgrin:

[derby378]

18. This must be why the Texas GOP wants the Greens on the ballot

They are scared shitless. If their little ploy doesn't work out, White is going to make Perry work for every vote he gets - before Perry gets defeated in November.

[sonias]

19. Precisely

They know they got a tired old ticket of career politicians who have been bought and answer to big business. The people of Texas should get wise and throw all the GOP bums out - especially slick Rick, whose too scared to debate.

That's also the reason Ricky, Chicky, Chicky doesn't want to debate - he's too scared of Bill White wiping the floor with him. Medina practically beat him in the primary debates.


:hi: Derby!