Poll: Hutchison In Tight Race For Second Place

[sonias]

Talking Points Memo 2/9/10
Poll: Hutchison In Tight Race For Second Place -- And A Runoff Slot -- In TX-GOV Republican Primary

The new survey of the Texas gubernatorial race by Public Policy Polling has some bad news for Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who is challenging incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican primary. Hutchison is now just barely holding on to second place, and could be overtaken for a spot in the primary runoff by businesswoman and conservative activist Debra Medina.

The numbers: Perry 39%, Hutchison 28%, Medina 24%, with a ±4.8% margin of error. If no candidate gets over 50% of the vote in the primary on March 2, a runoff will be held on April 13. Hutchison has previously discussed this possibility -- but this poll suggests that there's a chance that she has to work hard to get into the runoff itself.

From the pollster's analysis: "Perry is at 39% to 28% for Kay Bailey Hutchison and 24% for Medina. There are major splits within the race along ideological lines. Perry is at 42% with conservatives, and Medina is now outpolling Hutchison with them by a 25-23 margin. Hutchison cleans up with moderates, leading Perry 49-29, but unfortunately for her prospects they account for only 20% of GOP primary voters."

OMG! I hope that KBH gets her R mojo up because we need a runoff in this race. I do not want to see KBH be a quitter! If little Ricky wins the primary without a runoff - well it would not be good for us.

You have to give it to Medina, she's made a lot of pretty much no money.:crazy:

Sonia

[ParkieDem]

1. Wow.

I'm quite surprised that Medina is polling so well -- and that she seems to be hurting KBH more than Perry.

While it would be good for us if there is a runoff, either way, if Perry wins the GOP primary, it's still good -- I like White's chances against Perry much, much more than I do against KBH.

[sonias]

3. Me too

I just want to make sure there is a runoff. I don't want KBH to cut and run before the primary is over. Someone else suggested she's getting a lot of pressure from the Texas Rs to do that. I hope she's not listening to them.

I agree our chances against Perry in November are much, much better than against KBH.

Sonia

[eallen]

14. I think our chances are better against Hutchinson -- dispirits the wingnuts.

[sonias]

15. I think we all agree

White polls much better in the match up between Perry than KBH.

The latest polls had Perry at 50 and White at 40, and that was weeks ago.

Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison still runs best against the Democrat, leading White by 13 points, 49% to 36%. Seven percent (7%) prefer another candidate, while another seven percent (7%) are not sure.

We just need Perry to win the primary, preferably in a vicious run-off.

Sonia

[Gman]

2. Primaries don't favor moderates

as they attract those of stronger, purer ideology.

[blogslut]

4. I predict a runoff, either way

Perry with that magic 39% again. That was the percentage of votes he got in the statewide last time around. And now this time, 39% is all he can get from his party.

[sonias]

7. Love it - that would be so sweet

If he comes out with the same 39% he did last election. :rofl: My dream come true! :loveya:


Sonia

[NoPasaran]

5. On the Democratic side, White leads Shami 49-19

I wouldn't be surprised if last night's debate shaved a few points off the Shaminator.

[sonias]

6. You are mean

But hey we like your honesty.

I want to like the guy and not be mean. Look at it this way. With a contested Democratic primary, we got a debate. And that's pretty much free press for Bill White.

You got to thank Shami for that, right.

Sonia

[NoPasaran]

8. Well, I call 'em like I see 'em

I don't deny that it was good publicity for Bill White, but it really wasn't much of a debate. No real interaction between the participants, more a candidates' forum than anything else. All White really had to do was stand there and not act crazy for an hour. Shami, on the other hand showed that he doesn't seem to understand anything about how government works or what the governor actually does. I suppose that you could make the case that you don't actually have to know the names of other elected officials to be governor (although isn't that setting the bar pretty low?) but Shami doesn't even know that the state budget has to be balanced BY LAW. Shami is Jennifer Gale plus ten million dollars.

[crispini]

10. "Shami is Jennifer Gale plus ten million dollars."

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

Hammer, meet nail.

[sonias]

11. May Jennifer Gale rest in peace

Lets not speak ill of the dead. O8)

Sonia

[crispini]

9. Let's pretend for a moment the matchup would be...

Farouk Shami vs. Debra Medina?

:rofl:

Dear Dog. I think I would have to go hide under a rock or something. I couldn't take it. :scared: There would be WAY too much crazy in that race for me.

[sonias]

12. That's a nightmare not an election

You know Debra would win that one. I'm not ready for the Texas Teabag party to be in control of anything state wide.

Now a runoff between Goodhair and Debbie Teabags well that would totally rock. Maybe we could watch another debate just between the two of them - mano a mano. Cat fight extraordinaire for the control of the Texas Republican party. Hopefully the rodent (TRP) would be torn to shreds.

:woohoo:

No offense meant to real animal rodents. It's just satire!



Sonia

[sonias]

13. Medina-mentum in GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Burnt Orange Report 2/9/10
Medina-mentum in GOP Gubernatorial Primary

It's been evident on the ground since the summer. At countless "Tea Party" events and counter-protests to health reform, conservative activists have made themselves visible with signs such as the one at right. At first, Medina might have been easily dismissed as a bigger secessionist than Rick Perry. However, her willingness to court these enthusiastic voters and acknowledge their growing frustration with the Republican status quo is now paying dividends in terms of both polling and fundraising.

Truth be told, the Medina supporters are on to something, and their sign speaks more truth than lunacy. Hutchison voted to confirm Justices Alito and Roberts, whose votes on the Citizen United case recently did indeed further open the floodgates to corporate money influencing our public policy. Perry, of course, has a long history of close ties to corporate lobbyists, as Hutchison's latest attack ads make clear. He has also been endorsed by just about every special interest group seeking protectionist policies in the state house.

Medina, on the other hand, may be only the Republican Party Chair of Wharton County, but at least she knows her principles and she sticks to them. She even took the Republican Party of Texas to court because she found the state convention insufficiently open to activists such as herself and her supporters. And while Democrats are quick to dismiss her as "just another crazy," she's speaking to a growing electoral base who are frustrated with what they see in DC and in Austin.

Now, as a wider swathe of Republican primary voters have started paying attention, polling reflects the growing momentum behind Medina's candidacy. Similarly, flagging numbers for the Senior Senator illustrate the continued troubles of Hutchison to pick up any energy.

You know Medina has hit the big time when you see the first attack ad against her. Hasn't happened yet. I'm still waiting for the oppo research to find some skeleton in her closet that either Perry or KBH will expose.

:popcorn:

Sonia