TX-Sen: Rasmussen latest poll Noriega 37 - cornyboy 47

[sonias]

Not bad at all. Great news for Rick, it can only get better. And cornyboy's under 50% number is such a good sign for us.

Daily Kos House and Senate Round-up 8/1/08
TX-Sen: Rasmussen's latest shows that despite a serious fundraising disadvantage, Orange to Blue candidate Rick Noriega remains competitive with Big Bad John Cornyn in red Texas:

Cornyn (R) 47
Noriega (D) 37

Noriega's struggle, as it has been throughout the race, is to raise enough money to close that gap. Cornyn, for his part, seemingly has more money than God, but Noriega, with $916K on hand, has enough for a couple of days of statewide ad buys in Texas.

There's clearly an opening for Noreiga, if he can pull together the scratch to stay competitive.

There some good stuff in there about CD10 and CD7 too.

:kick:

Sonia

[PDittie]

1. Needs to be closer.

The town hall webstream today was a bust (didn't work).

Noriega needs big bucks and big DC help, and he needs to prove more viability than this (the numbers were at these points six months ago).

[sonias]

2. I agree that it should be closer

But I still wouldn't want to be Corny with less than 50% polling numbers. People always start to pay more attention to politics after labor day. I hope Rick can manage some real gains then.


Sonia

[PDittie]

3. Cornyn has nine million bucks

to Rick's nine hundred thousand. Cornyn can put on silly children's vests and look stupid on a horse in a video but his campaign sends me an e-mail attaching Rick to Obama and smearing them both three times a week. Their slime machine is rolling full bore, and Noriega's campaign isn't responding adequately (the same mistake Obama is making, IMHO).

There's more dumbass mistakes Noriega's handlers are making, but I'm going to hold off on posting them (for now). I have three more months for this to piss me off and I have to pace myself.

:mad: :grr: :argh: :banghead:

[flamin lib]

4. I've sent my $300, anybody else? nt

[PDittie]

5. Cornyn's running for RSCC

Leaving his staff to remark on Noriega. Certainly a sign of excessive confidence:

With a major financial advantage and a lead in the polls over his Democratic challenger, Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn is running as if his opponent is the national Democratic Party, not state Rep. Rick Noriega of Houston.

Since late last year, Cornyn has avoided directly engaging Noriega as much as possible. Any negative critiques of Noriega and his politics come from Cornyn's campaign manager and campaign spokesman.

"Cornyn sees himself as in two election fights — the one in Texas being the least important," said Cal Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University. "The one up in Washington for advancement within the Senate, I think, he has clearly in mind as well."

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5922446.html

This "inevitability" now becomes the traditional media meme. Cornyn is adopting the "Rose Garden" strategy, like Bentsen and Gramm did before him:

In many ways, Cornyn's tactics are part of a classic front-runner campaign — appearing to tend to official duties more than re-election. In presidential politics, it is called a Rose Garden strategy, in which a president standing for re-election does not leave the White House.

Cornyn is not the first Texas senator to follow this path. Former Democratic U.S. Sen. Lloyd Bentsen ignored his opponent on the road to a re-election victory in 1982. And Gramm scoffed at calls of his 1990 re-election opponent for a debate, saying he lacked credibility.

Cornyn's above-it-all strategy can continue as long as Noriega does not raise the profile of the race either in the news media or with paid advertising, said Jerry Polinard, a political scientist at the University of Texas Pan American in Edinburg.

It is time for Noriega to go on offense.

[Freddie Stubbs]

6. Noriega is polling much better than Radnofsky was at this point two years ago:

Incumbent Republican Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison leads Democrat Barbara Ann Radnofsky 61% to 31% (see crosstabs). Last month, the incumbent enjoyed a 27-point advantage.

The most recent Rasmussen Reports survey of 500 Likely Voters conducted on August 3, 2006 shows Hutchison is viewed very favorably by 43% of the state’s voters. Radnofsky, with a much lower level of name recognition, is viewed very favorably by only 8%.

more: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/senate_races/texas_senate_hutchison_cruising