Democrats lobby Hackett to run for Senate against DeWine '06

[Algorem]

http://www.thehill.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Campaign/090706.html

Democrats lobby Hackett
By Peter Savodnik

Democratic leaders in Washington are aggressively courting Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett to challenge Sen. Mike DeWine (R-Ohio) next year.

Democratic National Committee leaders were expected to meet with Hackett yesterday in Washington. So, too, was Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). Sen. Charles Schumer (N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), has called Hackett more than once in the past few weeks to sound him out about a run in 2006.

Members of Ohio’s congressional delegation also have urged Hackett to run or, at least, spoken with him about the race. JoAnna Kuebler, communications director for Rep. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who had been touted as a possible Senate contender himself, said Brown and Hackett had discussed the “incompetence and corruption” that, she said, stems from one-party rule — in Columbus, Ohio, where Republicans control the state government, and in Washington.

“Senator Hackett, it’s got a nice ring to it,” Hackett said in a recent interview.


http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/insidepolitics/index.ssf?/base/opinion/112634517712790.xml&coll=2

"Inside Politics - A challenger for DeWine? - by Stephen Koff

The annointing of Paul Hackett has begun.As other Democrats declare they won't run for the U.S. Senate,they're sending signals-and outright pleas-to the Cincinnatti lawyer,Marine reservist and Iraq war veteran to please challenge Republican incumbent Sen. Mike DeWine next year.

The last of the congressional Democrats to consider a DeWine challenge,Rep. Tim Ryan of Niles,announced on Thursday that he will run instead for re-election in Ohio's 17th Congressional District.

Ryan trumpeted the call for Hackett,who recently lost a close House race in a solidly Republican southern Ohio district,saying he had the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's blessing:"I have encouraged Mr. Hackett to run for the Senate seat and hope that I will have the opportunity to actively support his candidacy."

[Earl from Ohio]

1. "Be careful what you pray for...

you just might get it!"

I wonder if everyone is really doing Paul Hackett a favor by pressing him to run against DeWine.

First off, upsetting a sitting incumbent Senator, under any circumstances is INCREDIBLY difficult (absent some tremendously unusual circumstances.)

And yes, "Coingate" might be just such circumstances.

But we don't know... yet.

Like all incumbents, DeWine has serious cash in the bank, and more importantly, the GOP Senate committee will pour MILLIONS in to protect the seat (no matter HOW they feel about DeWhine.)

All of the talk on left wing forums about DeWine being attacked from the Right is wishful thinking. Ain't gonna happen. Take it from me- NO ONE capable of drawing more than 10% of the GOP vote will run against him.

Period.

Here's the deal- IF Noe and his wife get indicted AND Tom starts squealing on EVERYBODY in the Ohio GOP- and it happens between now and 2006- then yes, Dewine will be vulnerable, just like every other Ohio GOPer. I've heard that Noe is terrified of his wife facing jail time. If he rats out the state GOP- that MIGHT be what "opens the floodgates."

But I haven't heard nearly enough linking Dewine and Noe directly.

Do Dewine's poll numbers really suck?

Oh, you bet.

HOWEVER- the polls right now are "beauty contests." They don't correct their samples for likely voters- they are the general population. Always remember- actual voters are older, whiter and richer that our population- by far.

It never ceases to amaze me- no matter how badly the GOPers poll on the issues- it doesn't seem to translate into votes- hmmmnn... I wonder why THAT is?

(That's a whole nuther thread...)

[Hippo_Tron]

2. Low Republican turnout and the NRA will be DeWine's demise

You are right, DeWine is going to have serious money in the bank and Hackett, although he will start with the netroots and help from the DSCC, will be at a financial disadvantage no matter what.

I'm not saying that Hackett is a shoe-in. He will have to endure a brutal campaign and a possible swift-boating and how he handles it will probably determine the outcome.

But DeWine has VERY low approval ratings. Assuming that actual voters are richer and whiter, his poll numbers STILL suck. DeWine is also going to have a serious problem getting the GOP faithful out to vote. If the discussions at Free Republic are any indication, the GOP thinks that DeWine is a RINO. Hackett may even be able to get the NRA endorsement and that means that a HUGE chunk of the GOP base will either vote for Hackett or stay home considering that guns are a BIG issue. Secondly, DeWine will have a very difficult time getting the only reliable GOP base out, which is the religious right. Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell might be rallying the troops for somebody like Rick Santorum, but I don't think that Mike DeWine can really count on their support. There will also be a general low GOP turnout in 2006 because of Shrub's low approval ratings.

Finally, Hackett clearly wins on the war. Iraq is growing less popular every day and Hackett is the perfect candidate to win votes from people who are pissed at Bush about the war.

Again, I'm not saying that this will be easy by any means. The national GOP would much rather have DeWine than Hackett and thus he will have a HUGE money advantage. But since Tim Ryan has opted out, Hackett is about the best candidate that we could come up with and Hackett has already proven that he can win votes in a red district with a huge money disadvantage.

BTW, welcome to DU.

[Earl from Ohio]

3. Here's the thing...

"If the discussions at Free Republic are any indication"

No, they're not. They represent a subset of a fraction of a minority. To be specific, within the ranks of likely GOP primary voters, Party loyalty far, FAR outweighs ideology.


It's like why some NASCAR fans are for Chevy and some are for Ford or Dodge. If pressed- they can't tell ya.

Blogosphere does not equal reality.

Right now, one would expect GOPer turnout to be dismal in the next Primary- but what if the jockeying for the State offices heats up? Putrid vs. Sweaty Betty will bring out the old time GOP faithful.

And there won't be another Hate Amendment on the ballot to draw out the evangelicals. The Wingnut Pastors and the Medieval Theocrats will TRY to whip up a reaction against RON but, I just don't see it catching fire with evangelicals. They just won't "get it."

Or, look at it this way- what well known, high name recognition GOPer is going to run against DeWhine?

Unlike the Democrats, the GOP has REAL discipline- it would be SUICIDE for a serious GOPer to challenge DeWhine.

No, he's an unlikeable little dweeb, but it's gonna be tough to knock him out.

If he goes, it will mean a complete top to bottom sweep of ALL GOper incumbents.

Worth thinking about for sure....

Oh, and as far as the NRA goes, they are like many of the special interest groups- they are NOT honest brokers. It would take a " Democrat" like Zell Miller to get their endorsement... and it would cost Hackett as many Left support as it would gain for him.

The GOP (with help from inept Democrats) has found an ASTOUNDING ability to get voters to vote against their own interests.

Look at the list of subjects where the GOP is on the wrong side of an issue to the tune of 60 to 70%... and yet, they survive.

[Hippo_Tron]

4. Arlen Specter came damn near close to losing his primary challenge

Right now, DeWine does have a primary challenge, but admittedly it won't be as serious as the one from Pat Toomey. That being said, DeWine's challenger will get money from the one place that far right kooks can count on it, and that's the Club for Growth. DeWine's challenger probably won't win the primary, but he'll get enough GOP support that the Republican faithful will be pissed when DeWine wins the nomination.

Hoeffel did better than expected against Specter because a lot of the right wingers wouldn't support Specter after they felt that Toomey was crushed by the RINO establishment.

Does that mean that Hackett would get a five point bump because DeWine may potentially face a rough primary challenge. No, absolutley not. BUT... when it's the day before election and all of the polls are showing Hackett 49, DeWine 49 small factors like that can put a candidate over the top. Also, like you said, the evangelicals aren't going to turn out for DeWine like they turned out for Bush. Even if that's only a few thousand votes, that may just be enough.

On the NRA endorsement, Congressman Tim Ryan would almost certainly have recieved it had he run against DeWine. Ask liberals who know of Tim Ryan what they think and I highly doubt that you would hear the words Zell Miller.

Again, you are right, DeWine will not be an easy takedown. His ability to run millions of dollars in smear ads will keep Hackett from gaining any substantial lead over him. But if it's a close race and all of the little things that I've mentioned above go right, then Hackett CAN win.

[Earl from Ohio]

5. NRA

Do you klnow of any "real" Democrats that the NRA has supported?

[Demrock6]

11. Howard Dean.

He was backed by the NRA a few times.

[dsc]

12. several

Bernie Sanders won his first congressional race, as a socialist, with the NRA's enthusiastic support (both the Republican incumbent and the Democratic challenger supported the assult weapons ban which Sanders opposed). Sanders later lost that endorsement after voting for a different version of the same bill.

Quite a few Democratic governors have gotten the NRA endorsement. Easley had it here, as did Hunt before him. In Ohio my state rep has been repeatedly endorsed by the NRA and on economic issues he is a real Democrat. Kucinich used to carry a gun when he was mayor of Cleveland, though I have no idea if he was endorsed by the NRA.

[safi0]

13. Although it wasn't

An endorsement the NRA didn't endorse anyone in the VA Gov. race that Mark Warner won.

[Algorem]

6. Kucinich should run.He's been right all along.And he didn't go to Iraq to

help Bush kill innocent people either.

[Kolesar]

7. Blackwell could be the gop at the top of the ticket

That will get the RW Christians out to vote.

[Earl from Ohio]

8. Not likely

His poll numbers show him in a distant third between Petro and Sweaty Betty Montgomery.

I wouldn't be surprised if a "surprise" candidate got "drafted" by the GOP since all of the present office holders are going to get increasingly splattered by Coingate as time goes on. {And in this case, the "drafted" reference would REALLY apply!)

It would be GREAT if Blackwell were to head the ticket! But it ain't likely to happen. Although the Medieval Theocrats have sway within the GOP itself, without the Hate Amendment being on the ballot, they won't be that effective in delivering voters- most of their "rank (really!) and file" are closet bigots. Polls show that there is a real lack of enthusiasm for Kenny boy.

[Earl from Ohio]

9. I meant

BEHIND Petro and Betty.

[Kolesar]

10. Ok, I will give you bleak-Blackwell, but demur on the Hate Amendment

I think Bush would have won even without the anti-gay marriage amendment. Just my hunch.
edit: "Sweaty Betty"??? how mean! :rofl:

[Tesla]

14. The repukes are putting their money behind "Sweaty"

She has friends in high places!