That is the basic point of the story in the Startribune. It is not about what the people really want as what the party idology is. He either moderates for the best of the state or keep his personal ambitions and keep riding hard fiscal and social conservative lines.
If he would ever break from those idological lines, he can kiss any change of moving up to prominance goodbye.
http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/5288988.html"Paul Weyrich, an influential conservative who founded the Heritage Foundation and has strong ties to the White House, said that of the candidates who appeal to the Republican base, "I would rank Tim Pawlenty fairly high -- in the top three or four nationally."
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Conservatives commonly say that despite any differences with Pawlenty, he's still the best governor in their lifetime. But the governor got so irritated with the open criticism that he had a frank private meeting with senators at the Lexington Restaurant in St. Paul earlier this year, and urged Republican senators to keep their differences more private. The potshots nevertheless have continued.
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Weyrich, who is one of Pawlenty's biggest fans and was at the Florida meeting of the Council for National Policy, said Pawlenty will need to develop his signature issues and "become known for them the way Tommy Thompson became known for welfare reform."
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Weyrich offered one more ironclad rule: Pawlenty came to the attention of elites in the party, he said, in part because of his unyielding commitment to holding down taxes.
"If he breaks that pledge," Weyrich said, "he's absolutely dead."
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Even more important is ideology, something Weber describes as "entryway" compatibility with the conservative base of the party. Many of the better-known 2008 prospects -- Giuliani, McCain, former Homeland Security director Tom Ridge or Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney -- are at odds with social or fiscal conservatives on one or more important issues, ranging from abortion to gay marriage to gun control.
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