Poll: Culver (D) only candidate who leads Nussle (R)

[skipos]

I do not live in Iowa but I came across this article and thought I'd post it.

"The poll of 400 likely Democratic primary voters shows Culver with 38 percent, Blouin with 25 percent and Fallon with 20 percent. There were 17 percent who were undecided. The survey has a margin of error of 5 percentage points."

"Among likely general-election voters, Culver also leads the Republican candidate, Jim Nussle — and he is the only Democratic candidate who does."

"This survey of 600 likely general-election voters shows Culver beating Nussle, 49 percent to 41 percent, with 10 percent undecided. Nussle beats Blouin 42 percent to 39 percent, with 19 percent undecided. The Republican congressman also defeats Fallon 46 percent to 35 percent, with 19 percent undecided. This poll has a margin of error of 4 points."

http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060525/OPINION01/605250356/1035/OPINION

[Iowa Ham]

1. Well

Research 2000 (the company that has done these polls) is not open about its methodology and has come up with very questionable results in previous surveys. Other than Rasmussen there really isn't any good polling out on the race, and they've found Culver beating Nussle and Blouin and Fallon close but with lower overall awareness.

[CornField]

2. So... Blouin supporter?

;)

Welcome to DU!

[Iowa Ham]

5. Sure Am

Although I try to be analytical rather than partisan when looking at polls.

[newyawker99]

26. Hi Iowa Ham!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Debi]

7. Welcome to DU

Hope you stay around after the primary :hi:

This poll is actually old news and if you look at the post regarding it you will find R-2000's methodology in the pdf. As for name ID - Culver's was the highest of all the Democrats AND even though he was less known than Culver, Blouin's unfavorables were higher than Culver's.

Since you've come out and clearly stated that you are a Blouin supporter I guess I can understand you wanting to paint your candidate in the best light.

Congrats on the Register endorsement BTW! That's great for Blouin :bounce:

[Iowa Ham]

19. Thanks! :o)

I remain skeptical of the Research 2000 polling, but if you can show me work they've done in primary-ish elections before I would be open to persuasion. Their 2004 accuracy doesn't really impress me, since it's a lot easier to forecast the results of an election with 60% turnout than one with 3% turnout.

I'll be around after the primary, but I will have nothing but nice things to say about whoever wins. That will probably make my messages too boring to read. ;o)

[Counciltucky]

3. Just as long as Culver wins the primary...

btw, I love your avatar. Colbert is hilarious.

[pstans]

4. Check this article out

The primary is just one week from tomorrow and it seems that it is going to be a close race. Here is a good article from the http://www.wcfcourier.com/articles/2006/05/28/columnists/eby/98051aa34892f4178625717a0038cde9.txt">Waterloo/Cedar Falls Courier talking about how Culver, though in the lead in polls, can't seem to pull away.

A poll released last week by KCCI-TV showed him with 38 percent of the vote among likely Democratic voters.

That’s just 3 percent more than the 35 percent he needs to win the primary outright. And with the poll’s 5 percent margin of error, it’s not a comfortable cushion.

[Debi]

8. Blah, blah, blah

:hi: That's why it is so important that we ALL vote and get our friends to vote - If this thing goes to State Convention it's going to be MESSY!!! I'd rather have a clear victor (no matter who it is) rather than convention shenanigans going on Friday night at the Hall of Fame dinner!!! :scared:

[pstans]

10. It would basically have to be a 3 way tie for it to go to convention

[IA_Seth]

11. Which is completely possible!

If someone doesn't pull away in the next week, my prediction is as follows:

32-38% - Culver
30-36% - Blouin
28-34% - Fallon

That is my completely un-scientific, Ms Cleo and the Psychic Friend's network, type of guess. Previously I didn't think Fallon would be able to gather the support that he seems to have (and not just here on DU)...but now I think it is still anyone's race, and we may very well end up at convention.

We'll see I guess.

[Debi]

13. If the undecideds continue to break the way they have in the last

60 days (which could be total BS because all this polling was done BEFORE the negative campaigning between Blouin/Culver started and Fallon's ads JUST got on the air).

I'd say -

Culver 38-43
Blouin 32-37
Fallon 26-29

I understand where our numbers don't completely match, Seth, after all, I use Jackie Stallone's STARPOWER services!!



http://www.jacquelinestallone.com/

[Iowa Ham]

14. Here's my guess

Blouin - 43
Culver - 35
Fallon - 21
Mohamed - 0

99 from rounding! =)

I think turnout will be around 95k, with lower than usual in central iowa.

[Debi]

15. So Blouin gets an 18 pt turnaround in two weeks?

Culver loses votes and Fallon goes with the MOE?

(Actually I can see Bloiun getting more votes than what is showing in the polling. With the primary in the First District and the primary in the Fifth as well as Matt McCoy's primary I do see Blouin w/some loyalty votes. I think Fallon will do better since Johnson County has some primary activity as well).

I don't see Culver losing ground, thought - but I do see Blouin tightening the race. :bounce:

[Iowa Ham]

18. My crystal ball

Mostly Culver's support will be lower than polled because turnout will be lower and that hurts Culver. He's winning at least to some extent on name recognition, which means that he is winning a disproportionate number of votes from the marginal voters. If they don't show up, he doesn't win, and looking at the absentee ballot requests so far, they aren't going to show up. I think Fallon has 15k solid votes and he is going to win 15% or less of the undecideds.

I don't trust the research 2000 polling. Internal polls from the Blouin side that have been leaked show a lot closer race, and the fact that Culver went negative at all means that their polling must look similar. You don't go negative on a guy who is down 20 points in the polls with three weeks to the election. I think it was a horrible decision either way though and I think when people look back on the race that will be the big mistake they point to for Culver.

[IA_Seth]

23. Are you still here?

Just checkin to see if you are still around...we tend to get a lot of short-timers around primary seasons...

[Debi]

24. Seth, once again

You are my hero :rofl:

[pstans]

16. You are right about the polls not counting the negative ads

The past 2 days I have talked to 4 people who said they are voting for Fallon because of the negative ads from Blouin and Culver.

[Debi]

17. Here we go - huh?!

If people dump Culver/Blouin for Fallon then we could see a three-way tie.

(I think there are too many voters loyal to Culver/Blouin to jump ship because of some nasty ad business to give Fallon the 35% needed to win the nomination - but there may be enough soft voters out there jumping ship to keep Culver/Blouin below the threshold).

:scared: Man, the ten days between the primary and State Convention are going to be UGLY if someone doesn't outright WIN the nomination. (I've seen it here in Black Hawk County)

[Counciltucky]

20. My prediction...

If it's a tie between Culver and Fallon, I think enough Blouin supporters will look past the attack ads to support Culver at convention.

If it's a tie between Culver and Blouin, I don't see the Fallon base supporting Blouin at all, so that'd give Culver the edge at convention.

If it's somehow a three-way tie, I wouldn't be surprised to see Fallon pull it off. Fallon has a very energetic base.

This could get very interesting...

(If it's a tie between Fallon and Blouin, I'm casting my vote for Mohamed ;-D)

[Debi]

21. Here's the thing

If nobody gets 35% then we're back to square one

(that's how Steve King got the nomination in the 5th District - he came in third in the primary but since nobody got 35% the nomination went to District Convention - where King had organized the Convention Delegates - he won the nomination and the subsequent election and now we can't get rid of him).

Hell, if lightning strikes Mohamed could get the nomination!!!

Fallon is the only one who organized at caucus and at County Convention time, so he's in a good position - BUT several union members made sure they were set as State Convention delegates and now their unions have endorsed Blouin - AND many Culver supporters (yours truly) made certain that THEY were State Convention delegates just in case something like this happened. If nobody reaches the ceiling of 35% then it's really who planned ahead way back in January/March/April.

:shrug:

So, are you going to State Convention? Are you willing to be a delegate for SAL???

My question for the campaigns would be - Do you have access to the VAN? And have you checked WHO is a delegate to State Convention? And have you counted your supporters/your opponents supporters/undecideds? And have you started courting those undecideds? With five days to go and the chance of nomination by convention, that's what I would be doing!!! :bounce:

[IA_Seth]

22. Damn Stallone!

It looks like your numbers were closer than mine. That's the LAST gawl-dang time I use Cleo. Psht!

[Debi]

25. Woo Hoo

Next time I need to put money on the race - not just my name!!! (Oh, wait, I guess I did put money on it by contributing to Culver...duh!!)

[Broke Dad]

27. Todd Dorman knows how to tell a joke . . .

Check out:

www.qctimes.net/articles/2006/06/12/opinion/opinion/doc448a00c0c6c85407402276.txt


Dorman hits the nail on the head again! So true, it hurts.

[Debi]

28. Interesting BD, I don't see Tom Delay's name in there anywhere

Did Todd forget that part of the joke? :thumbsdown:

Oh, and one more thing...how much $$ were Harkin and Nussle receiving from the Tribe BEFORE Ambramoff came along? I think you'll find that TH was a friend of the Meskawki and others LONG before Nussle's buddy showed up. :shrug:

[Debi]

12. If the polls are ANYWHERE near correct, we're w/in the MOE

for a three-way tie!


If Culver drops 5 percentage points and Blouin raises 5 percentage points (and Fallon picks up the rest)we're headed to Convention w/out a winner. :wow:

It's not that far fetched of an idea! :scared:

[Skidmore]

6. I don't know who I will vote for yet.

The ads that Culver and Blouin are running look like they have been produced by the RNC. I like what Fallon has to say most. Convince me that either Culver or Blouin are worthy of my vote cause I'm having a hard time getting past the negative and nasty campaign insults they are hurling against each other.

[Debi]

9. As a Culver supporter I wish I could tell you to ignore the ads and focus

on what the candidates can do. I'm not thrilled with the negative ads out there and wish Culver would go back to the positive ads he stared with.

I can only tell you I feel strongly that Culver will be a) in the strongest financial position to combat Nussle and b) listens to his supporters. In the end I want a Governor that surrounds himself with people who he will seek counsel from and will take the advice that puts Iowa first (not his agenda).

I have no quarrel with Fallon's positions, but I am very concerned about his ability to raise money in this race.

I don't agree with Blouin's corporate give-a-ways and his positions on issues that are very important personally to me. I do not trust him. He has made it clear that his decisions are his way or get out of his way I don't think that type of management style makes for a good Governor.

Just my 2 cents worth :shrug: