Can a clean campaign actually WIN in Indiana?

[SpeedwayDemocrat]

What do you think? As for me, I'm beginning to wonder if we were wrong on this...

We've ran a positive, clean campaign for the Indiana House in the 92nd District (for candidate Robin Olds (D), staying on the issues and not slamming our opponent Phil Hinkle (even though the file on him is HUGE). He even sent us a letter, thanking us for staying on the issues and not attacking personally. (Not sure how to take that one)

We never accepted one penny of PAC money, so we ran things on a shoe-string budget. We worked hard, knocked on a lot of doors and ran a comprehensive print and direct mail campaign.

Were we delusional in thinking we could actually win this thing, staying issue-focused?

I'm hearing from a lot of the party faithful that we committed political suicide by not rolling in the mud with Phil. If that is the case, then I may well go down as one of the dumbest campaign managers in memory for this one, folks...

Any thoughts?
Have you been turned on/turned off by the negative TV and direct mail?
Did you see anything in the media that would have influenced your vote, either way?

BTW: Thanks to the DU family for your support during these past months! It's been a rough one...
PLEASE GO VOTE!
Thanks!
-Speedway Democrat

[Indy_Dem_Defender]

1. Robin got my vote SpeedwayDemocrat!

I think even though this was a campaign for a state house seat you don't want to give your opponent any free press, I mean most people lets be honest don't have a clue about the candidates past the president/governor/US house & senate, so any slams given are just going to get your opponent noticed more which defeats the purpose.

[LiberalFighter]

2. Questions

What were the vote results in the previous 4 years for that position?

What were your projections for votes needed to win?

What were the targeted number of voters for each group of phone bank calls?

Were phone calls made to wrong numbers, disconnects after they were identified?

Were additional targeted voters added after the original targeted voters were reduced due to wrong numbers/disconnects below the number of desired targeted voters?

Were specific precincts targeted based on Democrat/Republican ratio for GOTV?

How many precincts in the 92nd District?

[SpeedwayDemocrat]

4. Data on the 92nd; since you asked

Liberal Fighter,
Here's what the 92nd has looked like in the past 8 years. Note that Hinkle lost 7,044 votes in just the past two years (comparing 2004 vs. 2006 results, so far). I take that to mean that he is vulnerable. Perhaps if the Indiana House would have helped out more, we might have turned that - but there's no way to know for sure.

ELECTION REP DEM TOTAL
TYPE YEAR Votes Percent Votes Percent VOTES
General 2006 9,114 58.00% 6,478 42.0% 15,592
Primary 2006 3,102 62.67% 1,848 37.3% 4,950
General 2004 16,158 63.00% 9,488 37.0% 25,646
2002 10,935 92.49% 888* 7.5% 11,823
2000 9,999 61.28% 6,319 38.7% 16,318
1998 7,377 63.72% 4,201 36.3% 11,578

The most votes ever cast in the district was 25,646 in the 2004 election. I figured we would need 13,335 to win comfortably (52%). Past Dems who ran were Robin Olds (2006; first time); Allen Swinford (2004); *no Dem ran in 2002, but Libertarian Cindy Kirkpatrick pulled 888 votes; Don Godfrey in 2000; and James Richardson in 1998.
Note that the Repub candidate in 1998 was Michael Young, who went on to a Senate seat in the district. He pulled only 7,377 votes - enough to win, but clearly not a mandate. I think he's vulnerable in his Senate seat, and I plan to work with the Wayne Township Democrats to find someone to run aggressively against him next year.

We spent much more time knocking on doors and attending community events than phone banking, which may have cost us. Frankly, with the State's popular Do Not Call List, we worried about alienating the folks we were calling (yes, I know the rule isn't supposed to apply to political calls, but the people here locally feel it should apply to all calls). We knocked on thousands of doors in the key precincts; we started canvassing back in June.

There were 60 precincts in the 92nd district and we targeted the top 25 for canvassing and direct mail.

First time candidate and first time campaign manager = many mistakes.
Robin's going to run again in 2008 and I think she'll be much more aggressive next time around.

Thanks for the interest - and support!

[izzybeans]

3. In the local state rep and Senate races the majority of constituents

do not know who their reprsentatives are, and if they do, they surely know very little about their challengers.

Name recognition seems to be key, along with party affiliation.Become a name first, and then the only way to combat a partisan bias at the polls is face time with the voters. That requires money. Other than taking legal money wherever you can get it, I suppose in the local elections going negative is not necessary to win. We saw what the DCCC (or whoever) nearly did to Julia Carson with those mailers. Negative campaigning can backfire.

Name recognition probably requires running multiple times for the same seat and a constant presence in the public life of your district in between elections.

IMHO.