Democratic Senatorial Poll

[JohnLocke]

At this time, who do you feel should be the Democratic nominee for Bob Graham’s seat? JUSTIFY.

[Racenut20]

1. None of the Above

I don't seem to have caught a bond with any of them yet. Perhaps it will change soon. Am trying to read a lot.

[bullimiami]

2. John

i have to assume you are not from the miami area if you like peneles.

[JohnLocke]

3. Why'd say that? (nt)

[Bombtrack]

5. I live in the Miami area and I do like Penelas. He's charismatic as hell

unlike milquetoasty generic Castor and blowhard Deutch.

Penelas has a record of executive success. Miami led the state in job growth among counties in a state where that is really hard to do. He's also been a leader state-wide among local officials in driving efforts for healthcare/drugs for both seniors and kids as well as young-childrens education and services issues.

There is alot of propaganda out there about Penelas that is extremely spun and tenuous from people, actually mostly 1 person, who has decided to demonize him out of personal reasons.

[Bombtrack]

4. Definetly Penelas. He would almost garentee a boost for Kerry

And he is the strongest of the 3 by a signifigant margin in the senate race. Especially if Martinez is the GOP nominee which the Bushies will see fit happens.

We can have the first Cuban and the first Black democrat man elected to the senate in the same election, that will be a big step forward. If Majette get's the GA nomination we can have 2 black dems.

[Orangepeel]

6. Castor

She's a good candidate and will make an excellent Senator. She is the only candidate who has been elected statewide in the past (she was elected Commissioner of Education) and she's from Central Florida. She's well known and well liked here, in a region that we HAVE to win.

Polls have shown her to be the ONLY candidate that is competitive against both McCullum and Martinez -- she and only she can beat either one of them.

I don't like Penellas or Deutsch (although Penellas is very telegenic and an excellent speaker, he's a lousy Democrat for reasons beyond the Gore thing, and Deutsch is purportedly kind of an all around jerk). But, I support Betty because she's most likely to win, not because there's no one else.

Neither Penelas or Deustch will pick up enough votes in Central Florida against either McCullum or Martinez (who are both from this area). Betty has a strong foothold here and can win with the same people who voted for Nelson in 2000. This is especially true if McCullum is the Rep. nominee, but also holds for Martinez.

And, don't count McCullum out, even if the bushes aren't on his side. The right wing base that votes in the primary loves McCullum for his Clinton bashing and don't like trial lawyer Martinez. The bushes will have as much trouble pushing Mel as they did pushing Spector in Pennsylvania and McCullum is better poised to win than the Pennsylvania challenger because he's run statewide before.

[Bombtrack]

7. There is nothing to indicate that Penelas wouldn't appeal to central FL

You also stress that geographic factor while ignoring the clear more predictable demographic aspect in regard to both Cuban and overall Hispanic voters, not only in the senate election but bleedoff into the presidential election.

I don't see how you can deny that Penelas wouldn't make probably make up for the fact that he doesn't come from central Florida with a likely increase from the Orlando Puerto Ricans. That is central Florida.

[Orangepeel]

8. There is nothing to indicate he would.

Republicans here won't vote for him and Democrats here don't like him. On the other hand, Betty is already well known and well liked in Central Florida and can get almost every vote Bill Nelson got.

In addition, although I understand that many South Florida Cubans will vote for Penelas, you can't necessarily translate that support to overall Hispanic voters. For example, you cannot count on Central Florida Puerto Ricans to vote for a Cuban just because he speaks Spanish. In general, Central Florida Puerto Ricans identify as Puerto Ricans and there is some animosity between the Puerto Rican community and other Latino groups (particularly Cubans). I'm not saying that he'll lose Puerto Rican votes because he's Cuban, but you might be surprised at how few he'd pick up.

You also cannot count on South Florida Cubans voting for Kerry just because they go to the polls to vote for Penelas. Why would they? Jeb is much more popular than Alex is. Arguably, it would be better for the presidential race not to energize them and hope large numbers just stay home.