latest Zogby Battleground - Kerry well ahead

[montana500]

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04.html

[madaboutharry]

1. I keep thinking that Kerry

needs a cushion of 4 or 5 points, enough so that the republicans can't steal it again.

[Marxdem]

2. Define interactive poll

Is this poll web based? Not that we can really trust any polls.....I trust web based the least.

[montana500]

3. Zogby knows what he is doing

and his polls match the new phone polls that show Kerry ahead in Ohio, PA, and FL.

[Kurovski]

5. They send polls out by email once you sign up

I participate when invited. Which is alot lately.

I helped put battleground state, Washington, in the Kerry column with 55%.

Aren't I something?

[rfrrfrrfr]

11. Because

If you have been paying attention the Most of the other polls have all been artificially skewed towards republicans with many more republicans polled than democrats which naturally results in a Bush lead, or dead heat.

The only thing that will give Bush the white house is if we all sit home and don't go to the polls.

[newyawker99]

18. Hi rfrrfrrfr!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Guaranteed]

4. This is wonderful for Kerry..

but, I'm sorry, I just don't understand it. Zogby's is basically saying that the election is going to be a Kerry landslide.

How could that be true? How could virtually ALL of the other polls be so ridiculously pro-Bush? What is it that THOSE polls are missing, that Zogby is getting?

Is it turnout? What does he know?

[jaysunb]

6. Honesty maybe ??????

n/t

[Kurovski]

7. From the poll questions, my guess is that Zogby knows

how displeased Americans are with the direction in which we're headed.

Additionally: I don't recall being asked by Zogby which candidate I'd rather share a bowl of cheese-doodles and a handjob with.

Which is a nice change from most of the emotion-based poll questions I've seen.

[Booster]

9. Made me laugh all by myself.

[LittleClarkie]

10. Don't forget Zogby was one of only two polls

that got the 2000 election right. Everyone else had Bush way ahead, just like this year. Even when Zogby has us behind, I take it seriously.

I've been figuring that if the other polls have it at a dead heat, it's really a Kerry lead.

[w13rd0]

8. The media has become institutionally committed...

...to suppressing voter turnout. Just like the GOP. If turnout is high, we win large. If not, we will all suffer under another four years of the "CEO CoPresidency"...

[gavodotcom]

12. Interesting, But. Accuracy of the Results?

I don't know if the celebration's because this is a major shift in Zogby trends, or if we're just happy that Kerry's got the lead in 13 swing states.

I don't trust these polls at all. Let's look at what this says a little more clearly.

Only 6 of these 16 states: MI, MN, NM, OR (was there every any doubt), PA, WA are outside of the margin of error - 76 swing state electoral votes towards Kerry.

That leaves 106 electoral votes as a pick-em. What's really interesting to me is West Virginia. Zogby calls WV for Bush, and NH for Kerry, and 6.1% and 6.6% leads (respectively) are WITHIN the margin of error? That is seriously sketchy. Granted, nobody really wants to spend the money to accurately decide how 9 EV's will break down, but I'd trust those polls as much as I'd trust Condi Rice to enrich uranium within a Nigerian aluminum rocket tube out in my workshop.

Momentum is on our side, and two more debates can't hurt, I'm just sayin', I think with 10 states w/in the MOE, it's too early to be breaking out the champagne. I really do have full confidence that Kerry will pick up all 16 of these states, my point here is that these polls aren't as authoritative as I'd like to them to be before they're published.

[montana500]

14. gavo

Other new polls today exactly back the Zogby results.

47-45 SUSA FL
49-48 OH ARG
50-43 some PA paper

Zogby knows what he is doing! When the mail pollsters in the early 1900's questioned the guy who first started doing phone polling, they didnt trust that either.

[RummyTheDummy]

13. Flip Florida and Ohio

And it IS a landslide. Both, in my opinion, will be in the Kerry column on election night. It will be a rout. And it's just starting to come into focus.

[Josh]

15. They're almost all within the MOE -

some are leads of less than 1 percentage point. It's close.

[krkaufman]

16. No loss of Gore states; "theft" of 5 Bush states. Nice.

But just about what I'd expect -- except I expect either Missouri or TN to also go with Kerry.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

20. If I had to pick, I'd say Mo is more likely

TN is hopelessly repub at this point.

I'm encouraged to see we are ahead in Arkansas, however thin the lead. If Gore had taken Arkansas, Bushco would never have had the chance to steal the election.

[requiem99]

17. I believe this is the true state of things, because of 2 reasons:

1) Zogby knows his stuff. He was right the last 2 times.

2) This matches up more in line with what I'm seeing on the street and hearing from friends on the internet. People are pissed off, and more into politics than ever before, and that always helps dems more than repubs.

[newyawker99]

19. Hi requiem99!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast: