Pew: Kerry Wins Debate; LV Bush 49% Kerry 44%; RV Bush 48% Kerry 41%

[tritsofme]

By two-to-one, voters who watched the first presidential debate believe that John Kerry prevailed. But the widely viewed Sept. 30 showdown did not result in a sea change in opinions of the candidates. As a consequence, George W. Bush continues to have a much stronger personal image than his Democratic challenger, while voters express more confidence in Kerry on key domestic issues like the economy and health care.

The latest national poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 1-3 among 1,002 registered voters, finds Bush maintaining a 48%-41% lead over Kerry among all voters. However, the internals of the poll suggest that Bush's margin slipped somewhat over the course of the weekend, as a growing number of voters came to see Kerry as the debate winner.

When the sample is narrowed to likely voters, Bush holds a modest 49%-44% edge in voting intentions. This marks the first time in 16 years of Pew Research Center polling that a Democratic candidate has made a better showing on a likely voter base than on the basis of all registered voters. (Note: Likely voters are determined by a six-question series that measures interest in the election, intention to vote and a respondent's past voting history. For this analysis, it is assumed that 55% of the voting age population will cast a vote in November.)
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http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=227

Another poll with Kerry doing better among LV, suggests to me that polls are picking up on the fact that Democrats are more energized and our GOTV efforts more effective.

[DenverDem]

1. Polls lie.

Don't buy the hype.

[Zynx]

2. Bush only has a three point lead among indies. That doesn't produce that

kind of lead.

[lancdem]

6. Bingo

He won indys by 3 points in 2000 and lost the popular vote by 540,000.

[apnu]

3. I'll never understand it...

Something has to be wrong with our culture. Why would anyone want a leader who has a "stronger personal image" than one who has "more confidence... on key domestic issues"

I don't care if the a person has the personality of a brick and the hygiene of a warthog, if he/she is more competent then I want the more competent person at the helm of my nation.

But, in America, style rules over substance, and so we must reap what we sow. Indeed, we are a nation of idiots.

[rockymountaindem]

5. The whole world is like that.

It isn't limited to just America.

[cali]

4. It's my understanding

that the new WaPo/ABC poll has Bush up by 5 point. It's supposed to be out this afternoon.

[tritsofme]

7. I heard that too

But if IIRC * had an 8 point lead in their last poll.

[Melodybe]

8. Wake the fuck up folks, the polls are bull shit.

they are meant to condition you and make you accept four more years of Bush*

Quit expecting the media to jump ship, it is not going to happen. They had their chance, now they can have a jail cell next to Bushco for treason.

[cali]

10. Uh....

calm down, please. Don't like threads about polls? Stay off them. No one on this thread is hyperventilating about the polls, just taking note of them. I, for one, don't appreciate your shrill and less than melodyous rebuke.

[Melodybe]

12. I'm not melting down, but I wonder why here at DU we all argee that

the media does nothing but lie, and then all of us scream that the sky is falling if their polls don't go our way.

I don't apreciate people trying to make me believe their lies, when I am on the ground registering voters and telling people the truth.

I don't know one person that voted for Gore and is voting for Bush, not one!

But I know about 20 people that voted Bush and are now voting Kerry, as long as Democrats are stupid enough to believe the media and not the people in their daily lives we loose. End of story.

[cali]

14. First of all

count me out of the fraternity that believes that all the media does is lie. Some of It I ignore, some of it I depend on. Sy Hersh, John Burns, John Lee Ånderson, Lapham and many others are terrific. I'm bored, bored bored with the meme that the media is evil. Heck, I even like Peter Jennings. The point is to be a discerning consumer of media products and that includes polls.
But to cast all the media as, well, evil doers, doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Having said that, congratulations on registering voters!

[Melodybe]

16. Not all of them, of course, I am talking about the polls

and folks like Tweety, Judy, and Leslie.

So I guess that 95% of the media is bullshit.

[PATRICK]

9. Something else at work

Famous meltdowns of the past always took a while. I see that at work in the newspapers. Almost all ignored the horrible Bush performance, or balanced it out in their typical fashion- which is not to say they are working for Rove, but it is the non controversial way they perform to keep their paying local readership from thinking them biased. And many people focused on the issues as they were told to, and those people of course are relatively misinformed or challenged by details.

This worst of all meltdowns will go more slowly since the noise machine is dragging its heels on it. Nor is it a fluke since our candidates are formidable and better with clear targets who are crusty, one-tracked and unstable. The illusion of closeness can be broken before Nov. 2 but not so as to make us at all complacent. Thanks again to their dirty tricks and lies.

Our campaign people understand full well we have a juggernaut going. We achieved more than enough but the slowness can easily be seen(as unbelievable as it is!) out among the newsprint and some of the slower parts of the indoctrinated masses.

Looking good. A lot more to do. Save a performance that would have the white coat brigade relieve the administration of their office, savor the long torture of the GOP and keep fighting the increasingly insulting spin.

[papau]

11. Thanks Patrick - I needed that

:-)

[unfrigginreal]

13. Another poll trending Kerry

I've yet to see any trending Bush. Good news if you ask me.

[On the Road]

15. Key Number: Bush = 49%

That's the percentage of the popular vote he will get. Max. Maybe 48%. Meaning: Kerry win.