Why is Kerry narrowing his playing field?

[ps1074]

There were some good news this past week (3 national polls showing Kerry with a big MO) and some bad news (Kerry scaling back in VA).

We all know national polls mean shit. What counts is get the magical 270 votes in the EV.

I am worried Kerry is narrowing his playing field and soon there will be no room for mistake.

Bare with me, let me explain...

Right now it seems Kerry is mostly defending Gore states - WI, IA, PA, MN. True we need all of these states. But we also need to win some of the Bush's 200 states.

Let's put Bush's 2000 states in 2 groups - small (with few EV) and big (with 15+ EV).

From his small states only few are in play - NH, NV, WV and may be CO and MO.

If we are to lose either WI or IA, then we'll need 4 of the 5 from the Bush's small states. This leaves no room for mistakes.

From Bush's big states I see in play only FL and OH. I don't have much hope for FL. I think they will steal it again there. It leaves only OH. It won't be enough if we lose ANY of the Gore states above.

It will be naive to think Kerry will win all Gore states. It just won't happen. There will be shifts in states in both directions.

But what is the Kerry plan? Is he putting all his eggs in one basket? Winning both FL and OH?

Why is he pulling out of VA? We need to push hard in VA, NC, CO, AR and MO.

Can we discuss it? Someone more knowledgable than me, please post.

[tritsofme]

1. I hadn't heard this report

but if he is pulling out of VA it is because his internals polls told him it would be a waste of money to continue using his limited resources there.

[montana500]

2. hmmm

Kerry doesn't need Virginia. It sounds stupid but it's true. He needs Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa.

Well he could afford to lose Wisconsin and Iowa. But he would have to win Florida and PA, which IMHO is very likely. I think he wins PA by around 100k, and Florida by 5000 votes. He would also need New Mexico in this scenario which IMHO is ver likely. He then would win the race.

[montana500]

3. .,.,,.,ljlhlkjhkvbhjb

"From Bush's big states I see in play only FL and OH. I don't have much hope for FL. I think they will steal it again there. It leaves only OH. It won't be enough if we lose ANY of the Gore states above."


I think Florida will be too heavily scrutinized. If any state is going to have problems with voter fraud it will be Ohio and Michigan IMHO.

[enigmatic]

4. Ohio

That's going to be 2004's Florida, mark my words.

[RafterMan]

6. Ohio

Does Bush have the infrastructure in place in Ohio to pull off the same sort of thing?

Honest question. I know nothing about Ohio's internal politics, other than that it doesn't have a governor named Bush.

[doni_georgia]

9. The governor of Ohio has been throwing out voter registration

People registering this late in the game are traditionally doing so, because they are unhappy with the incumbant. This is a huge issue in Ohio. There will be a lot of people showing up on election day only to learn that they are not registered.
Florida and Ohio are both extremely important. Not that each state isn't important, but if Kerry is stopping campaigning in Virginia, it's because of internal poll numbers (not media poll numbers). Besides, there are two more debates. Kerry will most likely adjust his strategy after each one. I wouldn't get upset yet.

[roseBudd]

17. There has been huge Dem voter registration in OH and SoS

Blackwell had to backtrack on 80 lb. paper rule after national ridicule.

ACT, MoveOn, VoteMob are in Ohio and very active. So what Kerry is doing is only part of the picture. We also have poll watchers in Ohio.

If you would like to volunteer in SW Ohio, contact me via inbox.

[doni_georgia]

18. Wish I could, but a bit too far of a drive for me on a Tues. If elections

were on the weekend, I'd be there.

[Lexingtonian]

5. good question

But the answer is fairly clear if you look at the different pieces: the basic R/D split in each state, the Republican turnout machinery and its methods, and the new registrations (and totals).

Basically most of the Gore states are locked up. Oregon and Washington State gave Gore a lot of trouble due to Nader but they're no problem this year. New Mexico's electoral votes are pretty much owned by Bill Richardson. Michigan is solid compared to years past. Minnesota has to be worried about but not very much. New England didn't find Gore very appealing; Kerry's numbers are much more solid in e.g. Maine.

Securing Pennsylvania for Kerry is the work of Ed Rendell's people around Philadelphia and The Invisible Michael Whouley in Pittsburgh with the unions. Don't ask, don't tell.

That leaves Iowa and Wisconsin as 15 EVs that Gore won just barely, and they're Kerry's weakest Gore states largely because of the Christian Right turnout effort there.

As states that went to Bush in 2000 go, New Hampshire is pretty close to safe for Kerry. Immigrant voters are largely Democrats (or, seeing Old New Hampshire Republicans, they turn into Democrats), New Hampshire natives are giving up on Republican policies, former Democratic governor Jeanne Shaheen is running the turnout operation, and there's no shortage of money or volunteers drifting in from Massachusetts. Lots of NH Nader support has gone over to Kerry- about half of the 6%. Polling numbers are essentially identical to those in Maine; Bush is far enough behind that he visits the place essentially so that the Republican morale (i.e. triumphalism) doesn't collapse.

So Kerry has a fairly safe 249 EVs, with 15 that went to Gore in serious question.

There are two games being played to get Kerry to/over 269 EVs. One is the Pennsylvania-Ohio-Florida triangle, aka The Home Run Game. If Kerry gets two out of the three It's Over and likely (but not absolutely) the same is true for Bush if he holds two. Neither side can afford to lose this game.

There is a second game that matters mostly if Bush holds onto Ohio and Florida, involving smaller states. At its simplist it's attempts to take Wisconsin/Iowa and/or Nevada/Colorado (the easiest Bush states to win after NH/FL/OH), or to exchange them in a way to achieve or preserve an EV majority. In baseball terms this is Little Ball.

It does make sense to withdraw Kerry staff from states like Arizona, Virginia, Missouri, and Arkansas put them on winning some of those seven or eight states that should get Kerry past 269 EVs. If things start going well these staff can be sent back to those states.

The great unknown that remains in this campaign is the additional Christian Right turnout for the Republican side- pollsters like Gallup seem to believe their Republican consultants that Republicans can/will get 120% turnout of their base relative to Democrats. B/C '04 is also clear on the turnout strategy- it's about church people, knocking on doors, relatives and friends who haven't voted in a while, and a whipped up PR machinery during the last days before Election Day.

This forces Kerry to counter- to buy massive ad barrages to counter the Republican kind and forces him to send all the logistically capable and psychologically strong people to those key states well in advance, when it's best to pretend to yourself and others that a very close election result is the scenario to prepare for.

I wouldn't be too surprised if the Kerry people move back in on several statewide campaigns during the last week or two before Election Day.

[union_maid]

7. Have faith

It was their internal numbers that told the Kerry campaign they could win the primaries and laid out how to do it. That's one of the things that makes him a closer, I imagine.

[Zynx]

8. Kerry should stop reducing the number of states that are in play.

That is a huge mistake. Gore made it so that it was an all or nothing play on Florida, and we know how that turned out. You don't aim for just barely enough to win in order to win. You aim for about 350 so you have margin for error.

[helpisontheway]

10. Yeah..

I was so disappointed to hear that they were taking the full time staff from VA and sending them to Wisconsin or Colorado. The volunteer coordinator said that it did not mean that we could not win VA but they thought it would be better to send them to Wisconsin and COlorado. We have a large volunteer base here in VA so maybe that is why they sent them to the other states.

[newyawker99]

15. Hi helpisontheway!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[ps1074]

14. This is my worry exactly

By reducing his playing field, he leaves almost no room for mistake. It's win all or lose it.

Right now I think his goal is 300 EV (including FL and OH).

He has to start playing in Bush's field soon.

But here is the Catch 22 - play in Bush's field and leave some of your turf vulnerable or play to defend your own turn and don't make any inroads into Bush's states.

[Julien Sorel]

21. Yes.

He should start advertising and open up offices in Texas, that way he would put it "in play." Texas has 32 electoral votes. What the hell is wrong with Kerry?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. The Last Time Virginia Went Democrat Abba Was Playing To Packed Houses...

Go where the votes are young man...

[Zynx]

12. It's starting to swing our way again though.

A strong push in VA now is a long term investment.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

13. So Is Texas But Not In This Election Cycle (nt)

[KharmaTrain]

16. This Is A Day-By-Day Game Now

Campaign finance laws allow candidates only a certain amount to spend in advertising (television) and this money has to be conserved or else it could mean being off the air in key markets during the last week of the campaign.

This is a GOOP ploys to attempt to prop up their own hive and demoralize Democrats outside those areas from donating or voluteering.

One big change that the elimination of the fairness doctrine brought about was television stations could now charge whatever they wanted to politicians for TV commercials as opposed to being required by law to offer them the lowest rates.

This means the candidate with the most money in the final week will be able to buy the "open spots" (which will be sold at top dollar) with whatever money is left.

Also, campaigns have to be careful where they run and when. For example, advertising is cheaper in Harrisburg than it is in Philly and reaches more swing voters, so more money will be spent there, where a TV station in St. Louis that reaches just a fraction of a real swing area (outside St. Louis & the Illinois counties) is not worth the expense...but the GOOP will see it as pulling out of the state.

Just because the Kerry campaign is cooling it in some states where the polls are showing him behind right now, doesn't mean that will be the case in two weeks. We've seen how nutso the polls are and I trust the campaign has its own internals that are far more realistic...and those will determine where TV spots are bought in the waning days...it's just conserving the cash in the meantime. I'm hoping Kerry has to spend money in Denver, Phoenix and St. Louis in those last days...it means lots of red states still in play.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

19. Here's the winning Kerry map

http://presidentelect.org/e2004.html

just give PA, and Florida to Kerry and he's in with 281.

[Cheswick2.0]

22. Well if ACT would just go ahead and hire me already

I could make sure Luzerne goes Kerry. I don't know what they are waiting for. The local ACT guy wants to hire me, he is waiting for permision from Philly.

I am anxious to get going.

[featherman]

20. Sorry to be an optimist but judging from history and trends

I still expect Kerry to win in all of the upper midwest states that have been part of the DEM voting bloc for the past four elections- IL, MI, MN, IA, WI.

Still very doubtful that WI will vote for Bush. Seems unlikely and the polling has been a bit strange and mostly by pro-GOP bias polls. I still figure both WI and IA for Kerry with the other three more solid.

With the Gore state + NH Kerry gets 264 EV's. FL, OH, NV, WV will be the major battle grounds and will likely shift to Kerry with a strong close and about a +2 in the national PV (50-48-2 for example)
At this point I favor Kerry in FL, NV, OH and Bush in WV.

CO, AR, MO are secondary Kerry targets and states like VA, NC, AZ, are likely longshots.

Just my read on 10/4/04