Newsweek poll: Inside numbers are devestating for Bush!!!!

[xyboymil]

Take a look at these inside numbers:

" A 62-percent majority of viewers says Kerry seemed more confident and self-assured (26% say so for Bush) and 51 percent say Kerry had better command of issues and facts (37% for Bush). Forty-seven percent say Kerry seemed more personally likeable (41 % for Bush) and 49 percent say Kerry came closer to reflecting their own views on most foreign policy issues (43% for Bush)"

snip-

Fifty-seven percent of all poll respondents say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time. Bush's job approval rating dropped two points from the Sept. 9-10 Newsweek Poll to 46 percent-a 6-point drop since the poll taken during and after the Republican
convention.

snip-

During the debate, President Bush said the military would remain "an all-
volunteer army," but if Bush is re-elected, 38 percent of registered voters
say the draft is likely to be reinstated; 51 percent say it's not, according
to the poll. If Kerry is elected president, 18 percent say the draft is
likely to be reinstated; 67 percent say it is not. And 62 percent of
registered voters say reinstating the draft should not be considered at this
time; 28 percent say it should be considered.

http://prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/10-02-2004/0002263797&EDATE=

This shows that Kerry has also been effective in showing that * will bring back the draft. I love it!

Kerry has gained HUGELY in this poll!

:toast: YA!!!!

[Beetwasher]

1. All The Solid Funamentals Are There

Kerry can drive this home hard now...

[Stephanie]

2. 46% Job Approval - Bush is TOAST

He is done, he is over, he should start packing, get ready to clear brush for the next 25 years.

[mconvente]

3. MAJOR point

Look at the people polled. Dems are polled a few percentage points more than repubs (about 3 or 4 percent). This is what the turnouts have been for the past 3 elections - Dems out voting repugs by around 4-5%. When the polls aren't skewed, it's clear Kerry will win.

[xyboymil]

5. His approval numbers are looking terrible now..and Kerry is gaining in

key areas like the war and natl security. This is just one poll...but damn, things are looking good for Kerry.

[llywrch]

39. But there's another poll that supports this trend

Yesterday's http://www.electroial-vote.com had a link to a Survey USA poll that not only showed widespread agreement that Kerry won, but also showed polls of 800 or 1000 people from key states & cities:

http://www.surveyusa.com/Scorecards/PrezDebate093004WinnerLoserByRegion.pdf

Of note were clear Kerry wins in Arkansas & Florida; Des Moines, Cleveland, St. Louis, Phoenix, Tuscon, Raleigh-Durham & Roanoke.

A number of states that Bush considered safe now appear back in play!

Geoff

[shockingelk]

32. That's mostly a function

of people saying they're a Dem when they say they'll vote for a Dem and a R when they say they'll vote for an R.

[bigpathpaul]

4. Hit back hard on *'s complete lack of credibility!

I think it's fair and necessary to challenge the administration on these concepts at this exact point in time. I think the president's performance in the debate created a sense of doubt, even in voters who may thought they'd made up their minds to support Bush.

I've just completed a new set of ads relating to George Bush's apathetic performance in the first debate, where he should have been focused on making us feel safe, but instead showed us just how out-of-touch and lacking in credibility he really is.



The versions shown above are reduced-size, low-resolution versions. Full-size versions can be downloaded from http://bigpath.net/politics/Voting/VotingStart.html

[hatrack]

16. By the way, Bigpath, these posters are kick-ass!

My compliments!! ;-)

[bigpathpaul]

31. Thanks. DUers are the best! n/t

[Jane Austin]

36. They sure are! (The Posters)

And I've been taping them to the back of stall doors in restrooms - - grocery stores, Target . . . anywhere I can.

Thanks, BigPath.

[citizen]

23. Great news! ...and great job, Bigpath!

http://www.civilthreat.com

[gollygee]

33. Wow. Once again, AMAZING posters!! n/t

[DinahMoeHum]

38. Come our next Kerry "Meetup", we'll have others making copies

and spreading the word!

:kick:

[annerevere]

6. That is absolutely huge!

Wow what a turnaround. Thanks for posting the poll results.

[mconvente]

7. Huge jump for Kerry

On issues of terrorism, international crisis handling, and overall handling of foreign policy, Kerry jumped about 6 points in each (statistically tied with Bush on overall foreign policy)!

Kerry also jumped 6-8 points on economy, health care, and American jobs and foreign competition!

Kerry has to keep this momentum up! Next debate, he's gotta continue telling people his progressive plans and making Bush look like he knows nothing (which he doesnt) and I think we got daylight all the way to the endzone for the score!

[greendeerslayer]

8. Kerry Needs To -

Wait a week and kick Bush's ass in the next debate. THEN end every campaign speech by saying, "In my presidency THERE WILL NOT BE A DRAFT!"

[Liberal_Andy]

9. Great news!

:toast:

[MyUncle]

10. Finally polls we can believe in that have not been manipulated.

[Dems Will Win]

11. Now why in the world would people think a DRAFT is coming?

Printable pdf: http: http://somnamblst.tripod.com/draftalert.pdf

In May, the Seattle Post Intelligencer published an article about a document they received through the Freedom of Information Act. It was revealed that the SSS is currently “designing procedures” for the implementation of a “Skills Draft” after holding a top-level meeting on it with Deputy Undersecretaries at the Defense Department. This draft would change the very mission of the Selective Service and require “virtually every young American”, male and female ages 18-34, to register for the Skills Draft and list all the occupations they are proficient in to fill labor shortages throughout nearly the entire government.

Here, for the first time, is the FOI document itself:

http://blatanttruth.org/selective_service091304.pdf

This document is real, having been acknowledged by the DoD and the SSS when they said no action is being taken on it at the present time, as reported:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/171522_draft01.html

Although Congress would have to approve new legislation to create a Skills Draft or reinstate the combat draft, Family Circle reported in its July 13 issue that Karl Rove has polled GOP members of Congress in September 2002 to see if they would support the President if he requests reinstatement. The Republicans said they would vote for the draft.

In addition, the SSS itself has said that it is “designing procedures” (Seattle PI, May 1, 2004) to implement the skills draft, meaning designing the compliance cards and the data fields needed to keep track of “virtually every young American” and their skills. Acting Director of the SSS Brodsky has also said the Skills Draft is the “top priority” of the Selective Service for 2004. The Issue Paper options include:

- Allow a non-combat draft for shortages in critical skills, without calling a combat draft.

- Fill labor shortages of all kinds throughout not only DoD but the Dept. of Homeland Security and other agencies, especially high-paying professionals like computer networking specialist or linguist.

- Create a single-point, all-inclusive database, in which every young person would be forced to send in a “self-declaration” of all of their critical skills, chosen from a long list of occupations like the Armed Forces Specialty Code. The usual penalties of imprisonment and/or a $250,000 fine would apply to all non-registrants.

In the secret planning meeting document, the next steps strongly recommended by SSS Acting Director Brodsky were:

1. “Promptly” redefine the SSS Mission to draft men and women up to age 34 for skills, and deliver them within 90 days or sooner to the Department of Defense. Program a massive database to be ready to enter millions of names of those registering their critical skills.

2. Expand mission to deliver personnel in skills draft to the Department of Homeland Security and other agencies, including FEMA, NSC, Border Patrol, INS, Customs, Corporation for National Service, Public Health Service and other agencies.

3. Form interagency task force to provide Administration with recommendation on this skills draft for the entire government.

4. Obtain White House Statement of Administration Policy on the future of the SSS.

5. Be prepared to market the skills draft, raising the non-combat age to 34 and the drafting of women to the Armed Services and Appropriations Committee.

In contrast to this planning and preparation to create a targeted draft, Kerry plans to spend an additional $7 billion to strengthen the Volunteer Army in what is essentially a “No-Draft Plan”. Moreover, Kerry is strongly opposed to the neo-con plan revealed in Wes Clark’s book Winning Modern Wars, in which Clark was told by a senior Pentagon official that invasions of Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Sudan and Somalia were planned and still to come over the next three years.

MORE: http://www.blatanttruth.org/draft.php

BUSH '04 = DRAFT '05

KERRY '04 = PNAC OUT THE DOOR!

For more Flyers: http://somnamblst.tripod.com/

[Nicholas_J]

12. A number of pundits are predicting

That this first debate will give Kerry aabout a six point bounce.

The Newsweek polls released today, the first polls taken right after the debates have Kerry with a two point lead over Bush, the first time Kerry has ad a lead in the national polls since the Republican Convention. The latest Newsweek Poll has Kerry 2 points ahead of Bush, polling group size 1013 Registered Voters.

The last Poll taken by Newsweek, three weeks ago had very different results with Bush at 49 percent Kerry at 43 percent. This poll indicates that as of today, Bush has fallen 4 point while Kerry has gained a total of 4 points in the last three weeks, all of the gains occuring since the ebate 48 hours ago:

You can compare the poll results here:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Not only has Kerry gained as a result of his perfomance in the debates, But Bush has fallen considerably in the polls.

IN fact, some repukes with computer skills must be miffed, as you cannot get to the Newsweek or MSNBC web sites to look at the articles direclt, so I had to give an alternate source.

[KlatooBNikto]

13. My polling question returns are in:100% say Bush is a POS.

[stray cat]

14. CNN was right - definitely a tie on the debate

Makes you wonder what debate CNN was watching.

[The Chronicler]

15. Bush was horrible.

Kerry was good, but Bush was just THAT bad. Kerry won by showing up.

[NEDem]

17. Let's celebrate, but not be over-confident

There is still a month to go and ANYTHING can happen between now and then. We must keep the fight going and not let up!!

Damn these numbers look good. Even the dem/pug sample size is a little bit closer to reality. I can see freepers saying "look they counted a dozen more dems" but historically dems turnout in slightly better numbers than pugs.

This is not good news for chimpy. Look for C* to come out swinging on Tuesday.

[elperromagico]

18. Good. Now let's not stop.

Let's keep this going until 2 November. Folks, I think we're going to elect the 44th President of the United States. Remember that. :D

[Bucky]

26. Good trend to reverse, since we didn't elect the 43rd

Oh God, I'm not back onto that again, am I? What is it with you us people?

[gordianot]

19. Potential

The potential for this has been there all along. What is scary the public had to see this on television to solidify opinion.

Look what happened to Janet Jackson with her wardrobe malfunction. Well * had a brain malfunction (in the words of Mr. James "Cocaine is a hell of a drug). Somewhere among all the rumors is the truth. His delivery was terrible and his message was not much better.

Kerry was right on message and he looked good while telling the American people the truth. Finally the electorate may be waking up, hopefully before it is too late.

[wildflower]

20. I think this result is what amazes me most:

"Forty-seven percent say Kerry seemed more personally likeable (41 % for Bush)"

Likeability!

This is the one thing that they (the media) are always saying Kerry would never ever be able to attain compared to *. The one thing the comedians always joke about. The one concern that all undecideds have had in common.

Wow!

-wildflower

[TSIAS]

25. That's one internal number that could destroy Bush

Take away the "likeability" intangible and that's it for Bush. I don't care if that number narrows to even. For Kerry to be that close on likeability is a tremendous sign.

[MADem]

35. No one likes a WHINER

Bush lost the likeability thing with his whining. It's HARD WOOOOORK....HARD WOOOOOORK to LOVE a woman with a dead husband....HAAAARD, I tell ya, HAARD WOOOORK!

Saturday Night Live NAILED that last night. Even the Kerry riff was FUNNY (that's not flipflopping, that's PANDERING. AND THERE IS A CLEAR DIFFERENCE!). Then they cut to the guy playing weewee, WHINING, flapping, and near tears--it was a scream.

No one likes a whiner. And no one WANTS a whiner holding the most powerful position in the world. In that series of "hard work" complaints, weewee LOST the election...or at least the moderate wing of the GOP.

Now, the jackbooted thugs will have to steal it by manipulating the voting machines if he wants to keep it.

[DaveinMD]

21. Like I've said all along

Just people seeing Kerry next to Bush was likely to move undecideds to Kerry. They know they can trust him and everything they heard Bush say about him isn't true in their eyes. This is what happened in 80 with Carter and Reagan.

[Fed Up]

22. Bush is Gray Davis II. Bank on it. Chimpie is done.

No matter what Gray said, people puked it back out. Nobody wanted to listen to his drivel.

We live that through again, one year later. Happy days will be here again.

[citizen]

24. Outstanding numbers, but....

we have to keep up the pressure and INCREASE SCRUTINY ON THE VOTING PROCESS!

While we can't control other external events we have to really keep the heat on the making sure the voting is as legitimate as possible.

http://www.civilthreat.com

[progressivebydesign]

27. Considering the polls have been skewed w/too many republicans..

.. unless they've fixed all their sampling problems, this is even BETTER news for Kerry! Let's not get complacent! We have one month to get our guys in the WHite House!!

[lsuguy]

30. Does anyone know the partisan ID breakdown of this poll??

[Quixote1818]

28. 49 percent say Kerry came closer to reflecting their own views on most

foreign policy issues. To me this basicaly says it all. People don't like the way Bush is doing things.

[lsuguy]

29. this poll even more important than it seems

Since the GOP convention, Kerry had made slow but clear and steady gains in Bush's lead, and was probably about 2-4 points down at the start of last week. What many people have overlooked is that the Kerry trend pretty clearly changed direction by Tuesday and Wednesday of last week. This showed up in several well-weighted polls such as Democracy Corps, Pew, and Rasmussen -- all showed Bush's lead clearly increasing. This is further supported by the battleground state polls. Kerry had been making gains -- some days up, some down, but the trend had clearly been up in states like FL, OH, PA, MN and others -- until about Tuesday of last week. It looks to me like a bandwagon type effect was starting to settle in for Bush, and Kerry's negatives were too high for him to be picking up all the wrong-track votes.

If this analysis is correct, then the Kerry turnaround as a result of the debate is more stunning than most people think....

In my view, the most important numbers to watch for Kerry over the next 10 days or so are his negatives. If those drop from close to 50% to, say, 42% or better, then everything else will fall into place.

Maybe he should once again challenge Bush to a debate a week until November 2!!

[shockingelk]

34. other internals: 9/11, ntnl security

18. Do you think Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq was DIRECTLY involved in
planning, financing, or carrying out the terrorist attacks of
September 11th, 2001, or not?

current: 36 - yes / 51 no
9/3 42 - yes / 44 no

That's a 13 point improvement!

Who do you trust more on Foreign policy in general?

current: 48 - Bush / 46 - Kerry
9/3 54 - Bush / 38 - Kerry

That's a 14 point improvement!

[Bush was AWOL]

37. This is very good to see, but why did they sample more D's than R's

I'm not convinced this poll will reflect the turnout this fall.

[elperromagico]

40. More D's than R's typically vote in the general election.

For instance: In 2000, 39% identified themselves as Democrats, and 35% as Republicans. So oversampling Democrats is simply in keeping with historical patterns.