Next debates: Why Rove and Bush are NOT WORRIED

[DrBB]

Next Debate(s): Bush is the Comeback Kid!

I kid you not. That's how I read the tea leaves now. If I'm Rove, I'm telling the Chimp, settle down kid, we got 'em right where we want 'em. Lowest bar in history has now been set. All you have to do is keep a game face and not piss your own pants or fall over foaming at the mouth, and our buddies in the media will do the rest. "What a relief for the GOP," they'll say. "He was a little off his stride last week, but he came roaring back and didn't lay a turd on stage or anything!" "He looked a LOT more presidential this week, by his bold ability not to drool or scream obscenities, and went a long way toward reassuring the country that despite his many mental handicaps he probably CAN tie his own shoes, feed himself and perform other important self-care tasks--what a man!" And so forth and so on.

How much you wanna bet? All he's gotta do is not look like a raving lunatic again, and it's his, in the post-debate spin and in the polls. Go ahead--convince me I'm wrong.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

1. Nope...Kerry will flip his switch again

he can't handle disagreement...last time with Gore even his failures in Texas had not come to pass and he had no record...this time he has a record and it is a record of failure.

[Cooley Hurd]

7. Yep, and Bush's switch is a hair trigger...

What I saw via C-SPAN's split-screen was a man (er... actually a CHIMP) behaving like a spoiled brat every time JK called his record into question - grimacing, scuffing his feet into the floor, blinking like a crystal meth addict.

There's NO chance Bush can control himself during further truthful scrutiny of his miserable record as pResident. His implosion will continue. :thumbsup:

[October]

53. I agree with your assessment

Initially I too worried about the low expectations model that Rove likes to work with...but I think Kerry can calmly and cooly set him off. He knows which buttons to push.

[Demoiselle]

67. I agree, too, nothingshocks.

Remember, Gov Weld (Kerry's Republican victim in the '96 senatorial debates said that Kerry was real good at finding ways to get his opponent angry. Also, having watched the last debate on the cspan split screen, I honestly don't believe that Bush is CAPABLE of controlling himself. There appears to be something really strange going on there. And, of course, he's had four years of a national record that he cannot bullshit about.

[Gman]

2. Won't work because

Kerry has a "presidential" aura. And, Kerry doesn't come across as a policy wonk like Gore did.

If Bush doesn't stand up straight, spit out his gum, speak in complete, coherent sentences and not make faces, he will assure his future status as an ex-"president".

[Birthmark]

3. Here's the deal

People all over the country are registering in *droves* to vote Bushboy out. I doubt that they'll be swayed by his (theoretical) new found continence.

[Dr Fate]

4. Kerry did so well in debate #1- the media had difficulty spinning it...

Bush has never lost a debate until last night-and he has had four years of on-the-job training as Prez- so the high expectations are still there.

All Kerry has to do is stay afloat for #2 to be called a "tie"

[4_Legs_Good]

5. I think that's what they'll try to play, and that's why

Kerry has to be EVEN MORE ON THE BALL in Debates #2 and 3. I think he can do it, but he can't ride on his first (massive) victory. He has to work harder than ever. Another victory and George Jr. will be on the ropes an third good victory and it'll be a knock-out.

Even one loss, though, and we're back to square one.

Get some sleep, Kerry, and keep up the coaching Carville. You guys are doing great, and for the first time since he got the nomination, I'm really starting to feel like we're in a good position!

david

[PROGRESSIVE1]

6. Kerry will outshine Bushler again and again and it....

will be all over and Kerry wins!

[Clark4Prez]

8. I Think You're Wrong and Here's Why

I believe that Rove wanted to create a feeling of momentum and they wanted Bush's strong point with voters (Terra and Iraq) first for a reason.

They believed that Kerry came across as wishy-washy on terror and security. They also believed the polls that showed Bush was leading by large margins. Rove felt they could hit Kerry with the flip-flop thing and he would fold like a house of cards. They assumed that Kerry would be long winded and go over the buzzer. I believe that their spin was already written, "Bush played by the rules and made his case, Kerry in spite of going over the time limit couldn't make a case for his ever shifting positions on Iraq."

They wanted to put him away and cruise to victory. Remember that Bushie doesn't like hard work and anything that makes it harder for him, he won't do. Now, the pressure is on Bush to excel over Kerry, not just keep up with him.

Kerry put a big hole in their plans, will surge in the polls, and makes the whole "Bush landslide" thing, a fantasy. I was talking to a Freeper boss of mine a few days before the debate, he predicted that Bush would pull 350-400 electoral votes. This was the spin and Bush believed his own spin, a cardinal error in politics if there ever was one.

[MidwestTransplant]

9. Exactly

[Jokinomx]

11. I agree with every point

The rove team thought they had protected chimp and the limitations that they had required in the 32 page agreement would stifle Kerry.

It just shows that Kerry had not played all his cards yet. Its all about timing. The year prior to last Thursday was all pre-game. The real game started as Kerry reached out and pulled pResident bush close to him while shaking hands... making chimp look up to him.

This is just the beginning of the all out no holds barred battle for the White House. Kerry will have some October surprises I am sure.... chimp won't know how to respond quick enough to counter.

Kerry will win by a double digit margin. Thats my humble opinion..

:kick:

[demgrrrll]

42. I am with you. Classic rope a dope. Pretended to be flailing about and

cornered by the debate terms. Rove thought it was in the bag. He relaxed and the rest is history. For some reason I think Karen Hughes may have known what was coming down the pike and was overruled by Rove. Someone wrote that he was on a real tear after the debate, really sweating it. They may have plan B but they are scrambling and not coming from a position of strength.

[DrBB]

18. Hope you're right, but

The incredible thing--which the media should have been jumping all over from the get-go--is that this shouldn't be a race at all: Bush should be stomping Kerry, as an incumbent up around 80% approval not too long ago. It's actually BUSH who has been in trouble--if he'd been just reasonably competent there'd be no race at ALL here. But instead he's having to struggle and all they've focused on is Kerry's problems.

That bias has not gone away.

As I read it, they have every reason to want to sell the other story next go 'round, and they will resolutely do so. To put it less conspiratorially, their bias is toward a close race--it sells more ad space. Remember the whipsawing in the final weeks of '00? Gore up by ten! Bush up by ten! Gore up by ten! Bush up by ten! I think that's as much a result of media feedback as anything. That's the way they like it.

I HOPE that's not the case this time, and I'm not posting this to bum anyone out, I'm just thinking out loud: If I was Rove, I'd be saying, look, just keep your shirt on, keep it short 'n' sweet, mix it up a little and don't look goofy or rattled, and we'll see to it that the big media herd comes thundering back in our direction. Problem solved.

Kerry HAS shown, as he is wont to do, that he's got some sharp smarts under that phlegmatic exterior. But I don't think this is any time to be resting on laurels. All I'm saying.

[karlrschneider]

51. You have some good points, but I have to believe Rove is playing with

a deck that's missing a couple of aces. It might (as I hope) be that Chimp isn't really capable of carrying out KKK's instructions to the degree necessary - what I mean is it seems to me that W has gotten to the point where he doesn't believe he really NEEDS advice. Call it hubris, arrogance, vanity, narcissism...or possibly some arcane psychological perversion...and of course it's entirely possible that he's just crazy as a shithouse rat. But then I'm an engineer & pilot, not a shrink.
;-)

[Jane Austin]

94. If Bush were capable of not looking goofy and nerdy,

don't you think he wouldn't look that way so often?

I just don't think he's capable of it.

That part of the debate where he ducked his head to the side and said, "Oh, well, that's a subject for another debate," just made me cringe.

I was so embarrassed for him, acting like a seven-year-old girl.




(Edited for typo.)

[NEDem]

41. I agree with you

The first debate was going to build momentum and now * has blown it.

National Security has been the #1 issue for voters for a real long time, and now Kerry has shown * doesn't know what the hell is going on.

[Sophree]

And (mis)underestimated their enemy.

An error they seem to keep repeating.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

52. Great analysis

and spot-on!!!

Kerry the prosecutor will prosecute bush again and again.

[krkaufman]

73. Agreed. I felt Rove was going for the knock-out punch...

... with the first debate, knowing more viewers will watch that one than the VP or subsequent P debates.

Kerry still cannot choke, but the pressure is all on Bush, now.

The election is Kerry's to lose.

(And I hope he continues playing to win, rather than going into a "Prevent" defense.)

[goodboy]

74. Very nicely put. nt

[wabeewoman]

105. That's the reason the media

talking head said Kerry won. Their 'note cards' from Karl had information that couldn't be used and it took Rove and Co until after the post-debate analysis to get out new 'talking points'. Notice they tried turning it around the next day but it didn't fly. I also think when its all said and done, Kerry will win by a big enough margin that they can't steal it again.

[dogtag]

10. Shrub will get a better start next time and for a hot

few minutes will look something like a comeback kid, but he won't be able to sustain it. He'll morph into the smirking chimp soon enough. There's simply no 'there' there. Rove can prep a post turtle just so much. I predict that he'll begin the evening with improved posture, a forced smile, a careful eye for the roving camera and a head crammed with data. It will last about fifteen minutes. Then he's back where he started - spoiled rotten frat boy who can't take the heat. His 'likable' guy mask will drop to the floor and Kerry will stamp on it with his elegant tasteful shoes.

[October]

61. LOL

I totally agree with you. He'll start off strong, but won't be able to finish/close.

I think his meds wear off before time's up.

[October]

62. LOL

I totally agree with you. He'll start off strong, but won't be able to finish/close.

I think his meds wear off before time's up.

[WilliamPitt]

12. The next debate will have 1/3 of the viewership

Nothing of what happened on Thursday was part of Rove's plans. Nothing.

[DrBB]

21. I'm not that kind of Rove mystic either

I don't think Rove has the wiles of Rasputin either. I'm sure he was brushed back. I'm just trying to get inside his head now, and I'd be reading the situation as I said. As I put in my other post: let us not forget the final-weeks whipsaw in Gore and Bush's stats--the race kept flopping back and forth. I think the media bias is toward that kind of race and they'd be happy to take the wind out of Kerry's sails if Bush gives them the whisker of an opportunity to do it.

Partly I'm reminding myself to knuckle down--it ain't over yet by a long chalk, as the Brits say.

[Chichiri]

34. What do you base that on, Will?

I hope you're right -- I WANT you to be right -- but you need to convince me. Why do you say that?

[DrBB]

48. It's simple

This was supposed to initiate the Mysterious Cloud of Inevitibility, which should have descended upon Bush after the debate and insulated him from any inadequacies in his performance in debate two (see also WaltStarr, below). Whatever else Kerry may have accomplished, he has absolutely blown that cloud away, at least for the time being. It's going to be hard for Rove to get that re-established, even with a good showing in debate two (I'm arguing against the thrust of my own thread, didja notice?). No way in Jose Rove would have planned things this way, no matter how much tinfoil is in your chapeau.

[Walt Starr]

60. There are baseball playoffs that night

The audience for the debate will be lucky to be 1/3 the audience from the first debate.

[mumon]

81. No- it will have twice the viewership!

There's the LAT poll that showed that Dems watched the debate slightly more than Repubs.

That means that Repubs will be on their seats hoping that Bush will pull this off.

Which he won't.

And maybe Kerry will flip some Repubs to him, once they actually get past the "filter."

[Walt Starr]

91. Not when the baseball playoffs are on

Sorry, but the playoffs will get far better ratings than the second debate.

[mumon]

92. I hadn't thought about the playoffs...

OK.

Maybe that was intentional to place the debate on that day.

But I still think that viewership will be more than it would have been, due to the obvious cracks in Bush's teflon, although I see your point.

[Jane Austin]

95. That was a great piece, Will!

n/t

[ikojo]

97. The viewership thing is probably true...

given that the next debate is town hall and on a FRIDAY night...all we have to do is look at what regular viewership is for TV on a Friday and I don't think it's that high.

Friday is date night for many. The baseball playoffs are starting as well. Unfortunately the Cubbies will not be there....oh well as we have said for 96 (now going on 97 years)..wait until next year.

[johnnyrocket]

13. Kerry won the sumo match with the first handshake...

Kerry pulled him in and forced Bush to look UP to him. Then held his hand a little long...throwing Bush off for the whole debate...I predict more smart strategies from Kerry in the next two debates...but you're right, no way Kerry is in the clear...a few more weeks of ( as Bush would put it ) HARD WORK.

[JohnOneillsMemory]

36. Bush* will be ready for the handshake this time. Imagine the brawl!

Can you see these two grown man trying to get the best grip and stance and end up wrestling? HA! Saturday Night Live should do that as a skit.

Another great new development:
Kerry is finally speaking 'American' as in, "gonna", "goin'", and other less-than-perfect diction that sounds like a beer-drinker instead of a sherry-sipper.

That's a BIG help in soundbites.
He can finally speak bumpersticker-ese.

[JusticeForAll]

77. I was lucky enough to shake Kerry's hand

in November when he visited Phoenix before our primary.

My hand still hurts! He exudes power.

Go Kerry Go!

[MattBaggins]

84. Not only that he paused before coming out

making bush come to him instead of meeting him the middle. Made the bone come to the dog as they say.

[GeorgeBushytail]

93. A lot of people will be watching that first handshake

at the next debate. I expect Kerry to come up with something completely different to screw with *'s "mind". This will be entertaining.

[argyl]

14. With Americans in harms way Kerry showed Bush a measure of respect

in the foreign policy debate due to his present status as Commander in Chief.This didn't hurt him per the outcome.

This next one will be about jobs and their outsourcing,health care,affordable drugs,Social Security,Medicare,energy policy(let's hang Kenny Boy around Smirk's neck),the environment,the attack on our freedoms by Bush's Justice Department.I've no doubt left some issues out but you get the picture.

On these issues Kerry should come out really swinging.Bush will be a quivering mess after this one.

[Booster]

47. I really don't think Bush even understands anything about

the problems here at home, and if John can convince people that he can get companies to return instead of outsourcing with tax incentatives for those companies, then he can hit one out of the park. There's just too many people out of work for that not to hit home in almost every household or friend's household. Having dealt, as you all have, with trying to solve problems with someone in India who doesn't understand me and I don't understand them, I've got to believe these companies are getting a lot more complaints and cancellations than it's worth. It's not just the jobs that are gone, even though that's devastating, but the confidence in the companies is also gone - soon we'll all be trying to do business with "Mom & Pop" again, and that's not really a bad thing.

[Gabi Hayes]

15. what, me worry?

[Radio-Active]

87. Karen Hughes really resembles

Bush in this picture - same dumbified expression

[progressivebydesign]

16. There aren't enuff drugs out there to stabilize that man..

he refuses to take his physical (where have we heard that before?), there is something wrong with him. YOu just can't fix that kind of behavior.. Bush is a volcano waiting to erupt, emotionally. Perhaps he is completely insane, as some have said.

I just hope the networks DON'T back down on the tv coverage of both candidates while they talk...

[Nicholas_J]

17. Bush has been kept insulated

From crowds and appearances at which people who are opposed to him can appear. Every public appearance that George Bush speaks at is filled with hand picked people who will do nothing but cheer Bush and boo Kerry. No one who might aske BUsh embarassing questions that he cannot answer is allowed into any auditorium or any open place that Bush is sent to speak at. I am certain that ROve and the others all coached and warned Bush about keeping his temper, not making faces or grimacing and so on, and that is why Rove and Hughes looked so desponant after the first debate. And that was just with ONE person asking Bush questions, and ONE person questioning Bush's policies anbd strategy.

The town hall debate will be a room half filled with Democratic voters who are all going to be asking his questions, and questioning his policy and will be not be asking these questions with an eye to having to be diplomatic or politic because they are not running for office. They may be polite, but they are going to aske tough questions and they are going to be more direct. They were selected to ask these questions, and no by Bushco. It will be even worse if Bush shows any sort of displeasure at the questions he is being asked by Democratic Voters. If he does not anwer them or is a vague and repetitive as he was in the first debates, so much thebetter for Kerry. But no matter how much Rove and Hughes and Cheney try to coarch Bush, Bush is still Bush. An ex alcoholic with all of the lack of self control that goes along with that condition.

[despairing optimist]

59. Or: a recovering alcoholic who must devote all his willpower

to staying off the sauce. There is no such thing as an ex-alcoholic. Recovery is a permanent condition. The demons are always there, and the struggle for control is relentless.

I think you've hit on a very important point. If there's any girly man in this campaign, we all know who he is. W can't stand pressure or challenges from anyone who could remotely be considered superior to him. His father and grandfather were tough acts to follow, and his life is an open book showing us how tough they were. He may not be that far away from cracking. His closest handlers realize and fear this.

And to think, they are the same people who smeared the likes of Max Cleland and John McCain. Maybe that's why they did. Hmmm.

[Princess Turandot]

69. having seen him on a few broadcasted 'press conferences'..

during the day, which get no coverage at night, it seems that it doesn't take a whole lot to turn him into a petulant, squirming bully. I caught a press event in the Rose Garden with him and Karzhai, and after reporters started asking Bush questions abt Iraq, he started squirming. Then someone asked a follow-up question to which he said 'you are only allowed one question'. The next guy he called on then asked the prior guy's follow-up question LOL. By then he was really pissed off and started answering every question with
"it's so hot out here in the Rose Garden, why are you making use stand here answering questions." It was really bizarre: he did it at least six times, and I'm sure has happened more than once, but gets no coverage.

[Guaranteed]

19. KEEP EXPECTATIONS FOR KERRY LOW. NT

[DrBB]

24. Exactly. The complication of our position here

...is that Kerry's strong showing has put Bush back in the expecations hole that he likes so well.

This is a very clever, very mean dog we're dealing with. You don't turn your back or let down your guard just because you chased him partway back into his muddy little cave.

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

20. All Bush has to do is keep calm and come up with a variety of subjects

As long as he keeps moving around on the town hall stage with those long arms with backward-facing palms and as long as he keeps rambling about a variety of Chimpish things without repeating himself or running out of material, the media will call him the greatest orator since Demosthenes. The corporate media desperately wants the drama of a Bush comeback and will do anything to spin the next debate in his favor.

Even if he ducks every single question and fails to respond to any of Kerry's challenges through artful dodges, if he just keeps from falling apart, the media will be having multiple orgasms on how "Presidential" he suddenly has revealed himself to be.

Kerry cannot take victory for granted and has to increase the attack so that Bush can't duck the onslaught.

[indie_voter]

26. This is where Kerry's experience as a prosecuter

comes in handy. If he can spin a rebuttal to Bush's answers on the fly (which he should be able to do!) yet keep brief, he should be fine.

Kerry's other job is to rattle *'s cage without seeming to do so.

[SammyWinstonJack]

75. I hope someone asks him about

Tribal sovereignty. I'd love to see him try to answer that again. The last time was so much fun.

[Warren DeMontague]

22. I agree we should not get overconfident. We're still the underdog here.

But Bush has to fight on Domestic turf. Lets see Kerry press stem cells, and the fact that the GOP wants to criminalize the birth control pill--- lets see him hold Bush to the fire of the fundamentalist extremists who run his party. 45 Million Americans have no health coverage; let's see Bush try to polish that turd with "medical savings accounts".. Jobs are evaporating like crazy from the very states Bush has to carry to even consider being re-elected. Kerry needs to keep playing it as he has- calm, cool, intelligent, concise, forceful yet not angry... let Bush keep imploding.

I suspect Rove and co. will tell Bush not to make weird faces and to avoid seeming smug or repeating those stupid stump platitudes. But that's a long way from having the guy come up with a coherent message.

But, remember- we expect Bush to come back, and come back strong. We're fully prepared for him to be "back on his game".. Keep expectations up and be prepared for a freep-style post debate media blitz from the right.

[high density]

23. But foreign policy was supposed to be the easy, smack down debate for Bush

Isn't that why the Bush team argued to have the foreign policy theme moved to the first debate, so that they could get the most viewers? Now he is supposed to talk about domestic policy where all he has are tax cuts for the rich and medicare giveaways for the pharmaceutical companies. I'm sure God, gays, abortion, and prayer will be worked in there someplace as well.

Bush himself admitted during the first debate that his policies have created a tax gap between what we need to do here at home and the revenue coming in to the government. Kerry definitely can't just coast through the two remaining debates, but I think most people believe he already has an advantage on Bush regarding domestic issues.

[DrBB]

25. Here's why *I* think I'm wrong--I hope

One thing I kept thinking after the debate, particularly when people have said things about how Kerry didn't land the big one, coulda shoulda said this or clarified that or really hit Bush harder than he did--is this:

Kerry plays a long game. Will Pitt and us other Massachusetts dwellers know this from his fight with Weld, where there were SIX debates, and Weld was a VASTLY better speaker and presence than C-Plus Augustus, highly popular in the state, and was considered the hands-down favorite for most of the race. But Kerry won it.

And it has kept occuring to me--and I hope we'll see this--that Kerry's pacing of the attack in Debate I was deliberate. That he knows he's got two more to go, and that as a prosecutor he knows the arc here has to peak at the end, not the beginning. The whole campaign has been structured that way, and a part of me has maintained a sneaking suspicion that this was deliberate, even when lots of very smart people who know more about politics than I do were saying he was blowing it. He saves his shit for the final period. We're in the final period, and he is starting to pour it on, but he's going to keep getting tougher and more confident because he knows he's got more in reserve.

If that's the arc here, I hope Rove IS thinking the way I sketched above, because he's going to get his ass kicked.

[spanone]

27. There is no way to defend THIS ECONOMY!!! IT SUCKS.

Unless your dick cheney or a defense contractor.

[mumon]

28. You're wrong...

Because of the "changed his persona meme."

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x953514

[snippy]

31. Agreed. Bush is going to remake his personality for the second debate.

There are lots of possible variations:

Bush will attempt to redefine who he is by changing his behavior.

Bush is seeking advice and coaching on how he can change himself so that he will appear to be more presidential to the American people.

A well coached Bush will attempt to be more appealing to the voters by acting more responsible and mature.

Bush has decided that he must alter the perception voters have of him.

[mumon]

38. But then he's opened himself up...

If he appears to be "more presidential," than he's toast, because he'll appear stiff and formal, and then we say "he's not being himself."

He can't alter that perception now WITHOUT seriously hurting further voters perception of his honesty.

[snippy]

45. Exactly. I hope to see media stories about Bush deciding to change. n/t

[ReadTomPaine]

66. This Bush change reminds me of what Gore did in debate #2 during 2000

I find the parallel interesting, esp. since Bush committed most of the gaffes people attributed to Al during the first debate in 2000. In an odd irony, Bush seems to be tracking Gores performance.

RTP

[tinrobot]

72. Problem is - he's cramming for the test.

At the very best, Bush will have a few more talking points, perhaps better stage manners, and maybe another Prozac or two...

But it's still like the frat-boy student who drinks all night and thinks he can study the hour before the final. Doesn't work. He hasn't done his homework for the whole year, he's in over his head.

Kerry, on the other hand has years of deep knowledge under his belt. He's done his homework and enjoys it. He actually reads the newspaper and has a firm grasp of the real world.

It's very difficult to fake that sort of depth and skill. I doubt Bush can do it.

[DrBB]

Um, I think that one only applies to Democrats

They NEVER apply that meme to a Republican. Never. We could only pray they were half that even-handed.

[mumon]

57. WE will make the meme.

Call up C-SPAN after the debate, Rush Limbaugh, anyone.

This could be totally done in freeper-guise too!

"I'm really worried about Bush- he didn't seem to be himself last night..."

[goodwalt]

29. Of course that will be the spin

and I'm sure he will do better next Friday. They are, after all, getting the questions in advance. I fully expect the media to help Rove out along the lines you describe.

The THIRD debate however- the one that will inevitably be heralded as the "tie-breaker" by our idiot media, is going to be a slaughter. Bush cannot handle criticism, and looks like the weaselly evasive clown that he is when put on the defensive. In the domestic issues debate- Bush will be on the defensive from start to finish. Highest deficits in history? First net job loss of the modern era? Highest gas prices in history? Stem cells? The assault weapons ban? The environment? Enron? Haliburton? and on and on and on. He WILL be on the defensive on every conceivable domestic issue. And on issue after issue- he will have to BLAME SOMEONE ELSE. Bush is going to lose the last debate in such a spectacular fashion that Rush himself won't be able to spin a happy face on it.

Kerry IS going to be seen as the over-all winner in the debates, and between that, new voter turn out, and pissed off old voter turn out- Kerry should take this one walking away.

[mumon]

63. I think Kerry will crush Bush in the second debate too.

This maybe outdated: http://www.debates.org/pages/news_040813.html

The moderators will have discretion to ask follow-up questions in all debates.


Now Charles Gibson may throw Putsch a few softballs, but Bush does not do softball; only T-ball.

Moreover, if the opposing candidate responds, then Bush is toast again!

[ikojo]

98. I believe that for the domestic agenda debate Bush and Rove

will fall back on the big pug three culture war issues...

God

Gun

Gays

These are wedge issues that appeal to many in the pug base....What is interesting is that the Oct 13 domestic agenda debate is on a Wednesday, which as I understand it, is a day fundies attend church. Of course they could spend that night in church cheering on their boy instead of worshipping.

[Walt Starr]

30. No way in hell I believe that. The second debate was a loss for them from

the instant they agreed to it and they know it.

Remember, the jobs report comes out on the morning of the second debate. The chimp has to face real people on the results of that report, and from all indications it won't look too good at all.

Add to that the fact that Kerry will be able to give REAL NUMBERS on how many jobs the chimp has lost in front of an audience of real people and you will know, Rove had CALCULATED a loss in the second debate into his strategy.

Bush fucked up in the first debate. There is no other way to put it.

If they have an October surprise (and I seriously do not believe they have one), it MUST be released this next week.

[DrBB]

37. Don't confuse the issue with facts!

Remember, the jobs report comes out on the morning of the second debate.

"Remember" it? I didn't know this at all. Certainly ups the frickin ante, doesn't it.

The chimp has to face real people on the results of that report, and from all indications it won't look too good at all.

What Neal Stephenson, one of my favorite authors, calls "facing the biomass." Ever read Snow Crash?

Here's hoping Bush really is Sushi K!

:toast:

P.s., Good point about Rove calculating the second debate as a loss. I hope I didn't come across as one of those "Rove is Svengali!" posters. I KNOW he didn't plan on C-Plus Augustus screwing the pooch on debate one--it was supposed to initiate the onset of the Inevitibility Cloud, so that a lesser showing in Debate Two would be easy to roll right through. If nothing else, Kerry dissipated that cloud very neatly with his performance Thursday. As I say in another post, I actually have a private feeling that Kerry was deliberately holding back on Debate One--that a good DA knows he wants his arc to peak at the end of the prosecution, not the beginning.

[mumon]

64. God, yes, this is October Surprise Week.

Next Tuesday, no doubt.

[The Chronicler]

32. I agree Bush will rebound and look better, but they've already

missed a huge opportunity. Kerry was masterful in the first debate, and Bush was just awful. I think if Bush had come across as halfway competent, the media would have sold it for him. But Kerry is right back in this thing.

Kerry has to stay on the offensive.

[Wapsie B]

33. It's a nice idea, but

all Kerry has to do is keep challenging and questioning chimpy. The little simian can't help but become unglued. If chimp's handlers dope him up enough to stand up to this scrutiny without stroking out he'll look worse than he did on the first debate.

I too thought that was and will probably be the rovian theme for these debates. If chimpy doesn't shit his pants onstage he's the winner. Thankfully that wasn't the case with much of the public.

[Nancy Waterman]

85. Either Bush is drugged and can't think at all

or he is undrugged and irritable, over reactive, and snippy. He can't stay calm and in control and give rational answers. He can barely give reasonable answers stone cold sober. I am convinced Bush was on something for the Convention speech. I noticed it during a press conference a while back as well. These are the times he is even and calm and unflapable. But he has to be able to read a speech or minimally have the questions before hand. He can't be drugged and deal with an unscripted situation. this is their dilemma.

[John_H]

35. If Kerry does as well as he did Thursday, they can only spin a draw.

[DrBB]

43. That's what they spinned this time

...and to most viewers, by wide margins in the statistics, Kerry took it in a walk. If Bush manages not to moon the moderator their bias will be to help the GOP trumpet it as a Grand Reestablishment of His Great Destiny.

Just trying to build up some calouses here in advance of what's fairly sure to happen.

But I hasten to point out: Debate One WAS a major setback for Rove: it was supposed to initiate the onset of the Inevitibility Cloak, and Kerry blew that away.

[Guaranteed]

39. They're going to use all the wedge issues they can. nt

[fujiyama]

40. Is the next debate supposed to be a sit down debate?

Kerry's best bet is to keep this about jobs and health care.

Bush will steer it toward cultural issues like gay marriage, abortion, and the death penalty. Bush's only reply to anything in the next debate will be "the tax cuts are working".

My guess is Kerry's debate performance will be determined largely in part to his response to the question over the death penalty. The last candidate that was against it was Dukakis. The last candidate that won was ???.

I've seen Kerry answer it before though - like in his debates against Weld. I have confidence he will do well and ultimately wack Bush on the jobs report, lack of access/rising costs of health care, the budget defecit, and ultimately the clear inequality of the tax cuts. Kerry can and should also speak of rising foreclosures and bankrupticies and how the Bush administration is on the side of credit card companies. Of course, he can also go for the precription drug benefits package.

My God, on domestic issues there are SO many things to go after him on.

[NEDem]

44. I think its town hall format,

which means anything can happen.

[henslee]

55. Who chooses crowd? Gallup? Who is moderator? Anyone?

[RoadRunner]

46. They should be worried.

at least in my little neck of the woods (New Mexico). Our voting starts Tuesday, October 5, only 3 days from now. New registrations are at an all time high, are overwhelmingly Dem, and Governor Richardson is everywhere encouraging people to vote early. By the time the second debate is over, much or most of New Mexico will have voted. *'s performance in debate 2 is pretty much irrelevant in this swing state.

[DaveinMD]

49. as long as Kerry doesn't implode in future debates

he wins. The swing voters see the candidates side by side, they will come to the conclusion that they can trust John Kerry as Commander in Chief. This happened this week and it will be cemented in future debates.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

50. And I'm going to say

hey he changed, he's TWO-FACED!!! How can we know who he is when he changes like that all the time???

[deckerd]

88. This two-faced business is a bit off-target, imho

Good for a laugh and a cool graphic, but Bush's meme -- Mixed Messages
-- is far better, from a Dem standpoint, and needs no explanation. It
conveys basically the same information as two-faced, but to a wider audience.

Alot of people may not realized how mean-spirited and hostile the phrase "two-faced" is perceived to be. It's not a phrase a reporter would use and that by definition makes it useless as a meme. Mixed Messages sends the same information in a values-neutral fashion and the irony of Bush using it first will not be lost on the media. As someone said they love parallelism.

[henslee]

54. Imp. for JK to stay abreast of unfoldling news/events till next debate.

The world will have changed by the start of next debate and there could be a whole new opening or some new mindblowing nugget JK could take advantage of that wasn't so obvious the week before. I think JK will continue to suprise us.

[belle]

56. As the saying goes, you can't make chicken salad ou of chicken shit.

Of course Rove will want Bush to do much better. That doesn't mean he's actually capable of it. I honestly think he WAS trying to look "presidential."

What he'll probably do is try to stuff him as full of "facts" he can use as a Thanksgiving turkey, in the manner of rich parents trying to prep their spoiled, lazy kids for the SATs. Kerry still has him beat on that score.

Anyway, for Bush, that *was* subdued. He didn't actually drool swear, or curse. If anything, I'm thinking Rove might see that as a step in the right direction. Rove only has one mode: shark attack. What he probably saw was Kerry being aggressive and Bush "sitting back and taking it"--certainly that's how the freepers spun it. So he'll have him fight dirtier. It won't work, though, if he does; it'll just make him look nasty.

On the other hand, any *less* angry and he'll just look sedated. Rove can't keep him from looking like he just sucked on a dill pickle. He can yell at him, but ultimately Bush is the one on the hot seat. And if Kerry rattles his cage, he'll jump. He is very thin-skinned, and no amount of prepping is going to change that.

[arewenotdemo]

79. "And if Kerry rattles his cage, he'll jump."

lol

best monkey metaphor yet

[West Coast Democrat]

58. Fewer viewers will tune in to the next debate....

That was arguably Bush*'s best shot to break Kerry. Instead, he set himself waaayyy back.

[orpupilofnature57]

65. Ever heard of JAMES CARVILLE.

With the democratic candidate knee deep in battle, one would think he would have the all of his parties genius at his disposal.And facts are facts even rover and dumbya can't win that spin.

[zulchzulu]

68. Chimpy is going to get SPANKED again

All the naysayers here at DU and elsewhere who didn't have faith that Kerry would kick Chimpy's ass seem to be getting nelly-nervous again.

Ewww....Kerry is going to lose.....ewww...Bush never lost a debate....

Horsefeathers!

Chimpy is gwoin' down, bro.

[deckerd]

89. Wow, I have truly seen it all

Dems really, really need to learn some campaign skills like:
Don't believe your own spin. Geez.

[zulchzulu]

102. Nervous Nellies ready to run into the woods...please...

I thought it was pathetic that so many here on DU had absolutely no faith in Kerry and that he was going to do very well in the first debate.

This is a new time for rock-ribbed Democrats. We're not going to run into the woods when it looks like it's going to be a tough fight.

Kerry certainly is going to do well in the remaining debates if only because Bush has nothing to run on except to distort Kerry's views and record. Bush is completely unpracticed in actually being under the gun and only being able to blurt one-liners to his Loyalty Oath-branded sheep that he "campaigns" with.

Kerry is going to make mince meat of Bush in the next debate.

Watch and learn.

[jumpstart33]

70. This is priceless!! You ought to send it to all the media pundits as pre-

emptive debate tactic. It's scream BUT OH SO TRUE!!

[DemFromMem]

71. Not this time

That's certainly how the GOP will try and spin it, but there are a couple of things working against them.

First, the next debate format is the one that should be the scariest for Bush. These are questions that can totally come out of left field and as we all know, it's hard for him to remember to many of those pesky facts. Why do you think he was repeating the same thing over and over again in the debate? Bush has been totally insulated from having to face unpredictable questions.

Kerry thrives in that type of setting - just like Clinton.

Second, he's going to face hard domestic questions and he just does not have good answers.

Third, the BC04 folks put the foreign policy debate first because they know historically the ratings sink after each debate. The Mondale-Reagan debates are what they're hoping to see happen here with Reagan getting demolished and then doing fine in round 2. The problem is that Reagan actually had a record. Maybe we disagreed with a lot of it, but people were feeling pretty good about the country. The right track, wrong track question was not what it is today so people were willing to cut slack. And Bush is no Ronald Reagan.

[LynnTheDem]

76. Sure...right...uh huh...

with bush's ratings on environment, economy, jobs, and healthcare in the 30s.

Ain't nuthin' RoveCo can do to make bush look good on anything BUT foreign policy...and Kerry already won that one big time.

[baltodemvet]

78. Valid point!

But I do think they're worried. They would have preferred to blow Kerry away last week but that's spilled milk so they will try to set up the scenario you describe. And you're right, there's been a quantuum shift in expectations which will play out in the post-debate whirlwind of hot air know as spin.

[liberal N proud]

80. Funny, but the scary thing is it may be true

[m_welby]

82. that'll be the meda spin

they just love the horse race. if its at all possible to spin it that way it'll be one for kerry, one for * and then the 'grduge match' it's all just a another reality show for them. After seeing kerry thursday though I think it might be just as hard to spin the second debate as a tie as it was the first.

[Zen Democrat]

83. Don't kid yourself. They are worried like hell. Debate #1 backfired.

All their juice was for Bush to sail through the foreign policy debate and cement his lead. Appear soft-spoken to nail the women vote.

What happened was a melt-down.

Now they are moving into the debate they never wanted to have. The questioning is wide open. The town hallers can ask any kind of question they want. Bush can't possibly prepare for every answer -- and you know what that means. He'll ramble on incomprehensibly. He did that in 2000 against Al Gore. But the stakes are higher for him now and, after losing the first debate on his supposed strong-suit topic, he's against the wall.

How do egotistical, petulant, dry drunks (or wet drunks) handle these kinds of situations? He'll just try to be Joe Nice Guy. He'll chuckle and grin and try to "win our hearts." But I don't think the unemployed and uninsured will be gullible for this window-dressing.

No matter how the spin goes, Bush can't think on his feet. He can't take critical questions.

And, finally, there's no way this debate will be the audience the last one did. Face it, Iraq is what is on everyone's mind in this election. The deed is done. Georgie blew it. Rove can pull dirty tricks and demonize opponents -- but he can't make George look good.

[Disturbed]

86. Fade out.

W won't be able to maintain his attention span the entire 90 min. because he will be dying to pee. I was surprised that he didn't pee in his pants the last time with all that water he was gulping down. Noticed that he was even trying to drink when there was no water in the glass. Was it the medication or his nerves?

W is an incompetent sociopath that only got to where he is because of his crime family's money and power. He has been a failure at everything he ever did. Now he is a failure at trying to be a real Pres. If it hadn't been for the complicit Right Wingf Media all of this would have been apparent a few years ago.

[jacksonian]

90. remember the foreign policy debate is not over

some in the audience will be sure to ask about it - and Rove will most likely plant some people to help that along. Plants are easy at these things.

They cannot lose this issue. Cheney will be all over Edwards on it, and Bush will want the town hall debate be about nothing but fear. I worry about Edwards because Cheney actually has a brain and can BS on his feet with the best of them, but Kerry will not let Bush up from the canvas.

Bushco is reeling.

[T Town Jake]

96. After the pasting Kerry gave him last time out?...

...sorry, but no amount of "spin" can hide what played out in front of the country's eyes at that last debate. I expect more of the same at the next one.

[quaker bill]

99. The essential problem for Bush

is that he has to debate his record. On the campaign trail, the Bush team works very hard to avoid his record. On the stump, Bush is all image (an image of pseudo-strength and a nebuluous "land of milk and honey" future). But, Kerry will not allow it at the debate.

The laundry list of this administration's failures will continue to come up at each and every debate. The questions will be Mr. President, how do you propose to solve this problem? - (problems which did not exist before shrub was selected)

Kerry's basic response - I will undo the various things this president has done to cause it.

There is no way Bush maintains his composure through this.

[Julien Sorel]

100. I believe there's something wrong with him.

The more I look at that debate, the more I think about the times I've seen him answering questions, the more convinced I am. Maybe he doesn't handle sleep deprivation well -- a problem of the job; maybe he has pre-senile dementia; maybe he's taking some kind of medication that affects his mind and impulse control (one of the smartest people I've known lost 20 IQ points and suffered behavior changes after undergoing chemotherapy: it can happen).

That being said, it's impossible to say what's going to happen when they go out there, and the media have been absolutely hideous. Anyone seeing this and calling it a draw, as many media outlets have, is simply lying; the proper response should have been to demand Bush take a physical and release the results, and have a psychiatrist testify to his fitness for the presidency.

With a media like this, and the cause of Bush's collapse unknown, the people who are confidently predicting another meltdown on Friday worry me. This place has a tendency to rollercoaster: a couple of months ago Kerry was great; then it was, "Why does Kerry suck?"; this week the man's a god; next week, who knows?

The odds are, Kerry will go out and do well. Whether the media will give him credit is anyone's guess. Whether Bush will fall apart is also anyone's guess. The certainty in this place about what are, in reality, guesses, is a little disturbing. Bush is a chump, but he didn't get this far having absolutely nothing on the ball, and he does have access to a tremendous support network to prop himself up. Anything can still happen,and only a fool wouldn't prepare for it.

Fortunately, Kerry's no fool, but a campaign is a collective effort, especially in the internet age.

[DrBB]

101. BE PREPARED is all I'm saying, one and all

I'm a little surprised at how many responses there have been to this thread--I think the best one of mine ever did before was about 30. But there's a LOT of great stuff here and I'm really glad I posed the question because it has clarified my own thinking enormously.

Here's where I'm at with it now, just FYI:

I think Rove and co. will be all over Bush on the composure issue, and they'll iron out a lot of that. The guy is disciplined if nothing else, at least when it comes to saving his own ass.

But his main problem is twofold--1) as several posters have said, he's been kept in the bubble the whole campaign because 2) his actual record is something he can't face. He's actually afraid of Americans, as a whole. Can't face the biomass, to use Neil Stephenson's term.

Still, my real point is about the media bias and which way that will break next time. And I'm about 80% sure it's going to go as I've described. Look: the CW on debate one is "It was a tie!"--at least, that's what they're pushing and think they can get away with despite the double-digit stats saying otherwise. So if Bush does reasonably well, defined as not urinating during the debate or screaming obscenities, they're going to call it for him.

Doesn't mean we'll lose. Big monkey wrench already thrown into the Cloak of Inevitability machine that was supposed to go into operation and I don't think Debate 2 will get it back, however they spin it.

But the media wants it close, and they're going to do their best to keep it that way. Be prepared, is all I'm saying.

[catbert836]

103. Granted, but I bet Bush won't be able to do either of those.

[randr]

104. The parable of the Emperors Clothes

is in play.
Bush has always been this way. It is his nature. He can/will not appear any different at any time.
Once the perception of the public is clear there is no way to dress up this pig.