ARG debate poll: If people voted the same way, Kerry would get 57.5%.

[TruthIsAll]

I have combined the party percentages with the results of the ARG poll of 2000 viewers response to the debates.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com

98% of Dems said Kerry won.
12% of Republicans said Kerry won.

and....

58% of Independents said Kerry won.

Therefore, based on proportional party representation (39D,35R,26I), if the viewers voted for their debate preference, Kerry wins the election in a LANDSLIDE with 57.50%:

Party Weight Kerry Vote
Dem 39% 98% 38.22%
Rep 35% 12% 4.20%
Indep 26% 58% 15.08%

57.50% to Kerry

[Birthmark]

1. That's pretty close to what the actual vote will be.

Kerry 55-43 over Bush. :)

[lablue]

2. debate is having an effect

you know somethings going on when the normally conservative Baton Rouge Morning Advocate runs a lead editorial like this Saturday morning:
Kerry wins big debate
The bumbling performance of President Bush in the first debate with U.S. Sen. John Kerry has greatly enhanced the Democrat's chances of winning the White House on Nov. 2.

While political scientists and pollsters say that the influence of debates is often overstated -- because most people have already made up their minds, or undecided voters may not watch them -- this debate may prove the exception.

Kerry, the senator from Massachusetts, gave a forceful critique of the conduct of the Iraq war and generally articulated well his approach to foreign policy questions. He did not flinch when taxed by the president for taking contradictory positions at different times. Kerry focused on the future -- although sometimes vaguely -- by calling for a more nuanced and multilateral approach to foreign policy.

Of course, Kerry had no difficulty dealing with the president's inept attacks on his views. Bush's incomplete sentences and failure to explain what he meant made this one of the most one-sided encounters in the history of presidential politics.

While the president is known for his mangling of the English language at times, he has proved himself in making set-piece speeches. Several of them, from his inaugural to his important speeches after the 9-11 attacks, have been masterpieces.

That man did not show up in Miami.

The president accused Kerry of sending "mixed messages" to America's friends and enemies around the world, but he repeated the phrase over and over again. Argumentative it was, but it was not an argument made in any kind of intellectually consistent way.

Bush sometimes appeared, from his answers, not to really grasp the implications of the questions he was asked. Instead of addressing the questions, he rambled into "mixed messages" or similarly incoherent listings of accomplishments in Iraq.

Bush has a strong case to make for his policies, but he failed to do so in the debate. That made Kerry look prepared for high office, undermining the Bush campaign's effort to portray the senator as weak and indecisive.

Style matters in debates. Score this one all John Kerry's way.

[Birthmark]

3. I hope the debate does have an effect.

But what will really have an effect is all the newly registered voters. They didn't register to support Bush. They registered to show his ass the door. And there is little doubt in my mind that that's precisely what will happen, barring some colossal gaffe by Kerry or indisputable proof that Kerry is the spawn of Satan.

Say goodnight, Shrubby!

[My Pet Goat]

4. Very interesting....

Thanks!!

[Flubadubya]

5. What a great article!

Do you happen to have a link?

WELCOME TO DU, lablue! :bounce::party::bounce:

[lablue]

6. here's the link

http://www.2theadvocate.com/stories/100204/opi_edi001.shtml

[Flubadubya]

7. Thank you lablue...

I want to show this to someone.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Come on TIA, you added "neither" to get that 12% GOP thought Kerry won

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Talk about fuzzy math. Among Republicans it was actually 6% for Kerry and 6% "neither" in one panel, and 7% Kerry with 5% "neither" in the other panel.

You should know better, especially to post a thread with a bloated 57% figure without explaining the creatively biased method it took to get there. The 98% of Democrats is not accurate either, since it only accounts for panel 1 and ignores the 4% Democrats in panel 2 who thought Bush won.

I realize there was a small experimental difference in each panel, what questions they were asked pre-and post-debate. Doesn't look significant enough to me that both groups can't be lumped together. If you average panels 1 and 2, it looks like about 5.4% of Republicans identified Kerry as the winner and maybe 3.1% of Democrats picked Bush. That is probably very representative. If you came up with a more exact number using ARG figures then applied the same projections this project would have much more accuracy and value.

[VDHark]

9. "He ain't Heavy, he's MY brother!!"

My very first post.  Having known this man for all my life,
believe me when I tell you he know's his statistics... and he
KNOWS political history.   YOU GO BRO!!  :)