Matthews/Hardball slams Kerry with London bookey bit

[SoCalDemocrat]

After watching this I can summarize it in one word, rediculous.

Matthews spent several minutes interviewing someone in London who was projecting the election for Bush based on the book makers. They joked back and forth at Kerry's expense, smirked, and concluded by emphasizing how long the odds were on Kerry.

Bookmakers set odds based on how bets are being laid. This source mentioned that just one bet in the 6 figure range had been laid on Bush, which was probably keeping the odds down.

Let Hardball know what you think of their fine reporting here:

[e-mail]

Feedback:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3303518

[tomfodw]

1. Boy, Tweety really thinks Kerry has magical powers

Kerry's even to blame for what some bookie in London thinks.

Fat asshole. At least Rush has an excuse.

[question everything]

7. OK, I have to ask: why Tweety?

I don't watch this program so I cannot tell whether he behaves like...

[mark0rama]

14. Because of his improbably yellow hair.

Rumor has it his show's staffers originated the nickname.

(On edit: the apostrophe is my friend.)

[question everything]

26. Thanks. Will have to watch it some day

I don't like his hyper ventilating voice, his shouting even when trying to talk normally. Hard to believe that he started his political career as an aide to Senator Moynihan.

(have you read the Eats, Shoots and Leaves? great book)

[SoCalDemocrat]

2. My letter to Matthews

Mr. Matthews,

I was embarrased for your network today after watching the book maker bit.

The show attempted to portray Kerry as a long shot post-debate by citing a London bookmaker as it's source. This is a ludicrous claim to make. Book makers adjust odds based on the amount of bets laid for one side vs. another. This has no bearing on poltiical opinion, and your coverage fraudulently gave that impression. I was also offended by the general tone and smirking nature of the presentation. I suggest you attempt to apply some journalistic integrity in your future work.

You might also close an editorial piece, which that was, with a disclaimer that the segment is a joke and has no possible value in actually measuring the outcome of an election process.

[sonicx]

3. Yes, vote for bush...

becuase everyone thinks he's win. lovely.

[tridim]

4. I'll take those odds on Bush losing

Where do I place a bet?

Also.. What happens if Bush steals it and it's obvious? I wouldn't want to be a bookie in that situation.

[ClintonTyree]

5. I was wondering when the Tweety posts would start.............

writing to Harball and Tweety is an excercise in futility. Save your time, you'll never change MSGOP's or Tweety's tactics.

[Kahuna]

16. You are correct. Tweety is an ass working for GE's agenda.

He is not his own master. He is a whore.

[SoCalDemocrat]

19. I disagree, write directly to MSNBC's editor

You write to the EDITOR and complain. If they get thousands of complaints, that Editor will have a talk with tweety about his program selection.

[saracat]

6. I wrote the SOB too.

What a bastard. Carter must be ashamed of him!

[AP]

8. So someone spends 100,000 to lay a bet which elongates the odds, which

gives MSNBC a chance to spin a story out against Kerry?

That's probably one of the cheapest political advertisements of the year. And you don't have to delcare your 100,000 bet as a donation to George Bush (which is nice, since you've probably maxed out on all your other avenues for giving money to Bush legitimately).

The amazing thing is that you could make that bet, and then count on MSNBC to turn it into a story. Of course, that's probably the surest part of the this whole bet. But it's still shocking.

[BootinUp]

9. mighty fine reporting,lol

Glad I missed it.

[girl gone mad]

10. They really had to go out of their way to find..

some but of good news for Bush, didn't they?

It's telling.

Thanks for the warning, though. I usually catch one of the re-runs, but I'LL BE SURE TO SKIP HARDBALL TONIGHT (shouting so that MSNBC can hear me).

[wishlist]

11. Matthews said no President has ever lost the debates and won election

The Brit story was lame but at least the general consensus of the show was that Kerry won the debate and Bush campaign reaction shows that they know Bush lost.

[SoCalDemocrat]

21. Most networks are saying the opposite

CNN is saying that 4 out of 5 that won their first debate ended up losing the election, or some other B.S. statistic. They also claiim Gallup predicts a Bush win.

[The_Casual_Observer]

12. Nobody bet anything. This is a pure bullshit story

meant to redirect the focus away from the stunning defeat suffered by the chimp!

[DemNoir]

13. When the hell will you fools get it?

As long as you watch Matthews and send emails he stays on the air. Your nothing but useful idiots.

[FredScuttle]

15. Tweety the Greek

He may as well turn to handicapping...he sucks at every other part of his job.

[terrya]

17. London bookmakers. Jesus Christ. Brilliant political reporting there.

Maybe Tweety can find out where Miss Cleo is and interview her about Kerry's chances.

[Cha]

18. Asshole's gonna be left holding his

hat if he places his money with the London bookies!

tweetyturd and jackie stallone's dogs can commismerate with each other!

[stopbush]

20. So Tweets had to go to London for the Kerry attack.

Let's see, there's three debates to go. The next "expert" will be in Estonia...then, India...then, S Korea. Then, Tweeys has to hop the ocean and come back to the USA to find an expert to speak negatively about Kerry. But by then, the debates will be over and bush will be polling at 14.5%.

Might be difficult at that point.

[SammyWinstonJack]

22. So Tweety thinks this is a joking matter?

This bush* whore will have a job regardless of who is elected. How about thinking of someone other then himself for a change?

[Awsi Dooger]

23. Please understand the subject and segment; completely misleading thread

Hello? Hello? Did anyone watch the same segment I did? I understand not everyone lives in Las Vegas, as I do, or wagers on politics, as I do (heavily), or understands gambling in the slightest, but please refrain from automatically assessing everything as a slam on Kerry.

That was a pro-Kerry piece, for God's sakes. It said the London bookmakers automatically adjusted the odds downward last night after judging Kerry as the winner of the debate and therefore more likely to win the presidency than previously estimated. Doesn't anyone understand the significance? Bookmakers almost never move numbers "on air" i.e. without a bet. That is considered bookmaking suicide. They do it only when convinced their odds are vulnerable. Ladbrokes was concerned they would be avalanched with Kerry money at 2/1.

Last week I posted a thread with the Ladbrokes numbers, 4/11 or -2.75 on Bush and 2/1 or +200 on Kerry. That was a sharp jump in Bush's favor, from the pick'em range of all year. It was strictly poll driven. The bookmakers would have been walloped with Bush money had the numbers remained even.

As tonight's segment mentioned, Bush is down to 2/5 or -2.50 and Kerry down to 7/4 or +175. The London reporter said the odds on Kerry would have dropped even lower minus the single $110,000 bet on Bush,obviously made when his odds were 5/7 based on the $190,000 return. Again, that implication was in our favor -- the oddsmakers apparently feel the true odds are closer to even, but one early large wager is keeping them artificially high on Bush.

Almost all huge wagering on politics is done extremely late, in the final week. Kerry is the underdog right now, in the polls and therefore the betting community. Would you really get upset if a 4 point favorite in a football game was judged by talking heads as more likely than not to win? That is the approximate level of Bush's supposed lead over Kerry right now.

[Awsi Dooger]

24. A respected Las Vegas oddsmaker was on with Aaron Brown but screwed up

Kenny White is one of the best handicappers in town and also a very good oddsmaker. Unfortunately, he misspoke tonight with Aaron Brown, perhaps twice, although he did not appear to be nervous.

White proposed the impossible to lose combo of Bush's odds at 3/5 and Kerry at 9/5. OK Kenny, let me have both of them for billions apiece. At 3/5 or -1.67 and 9/5 or +1.80 you could wager all day and night and guarantee a profit regardless of who won, since the return is greater than the outlay.

White said last night's debate adjusted Kerry's number down 60 cents and used the number 2.40. Since Kerry is supposedly 9/5, which is +1.80, I'm guessing that number is correct and White misspoke regarding Bush's odds. Bush is probably 5/11 or -2.20. That would be in line with the 65% current win probability White estimated for Bush.

Other odds: Bush over/under 29 1/2 states won. That makes sense, but I was completely baffled by the 1.1 million popular vote edge White gave for Democrats. That is supposedly the "pointspread" if you bet on the popular vote. I am astonished a 1/2 favorite could be such a significant underdog in the popular vote, unless White again screwed up and he meant Republicans were favored by that figure.

[GRLMGC]

25. Oh God

Matthews needs to be pimpslapped. Like seriously. He's a total offensive douchebag. I swear he pulls crap out of his ass and spews it out. Do people actually take this mofo seriously? WTF? :mad: