when will the effect of the debates show up in the polls?

[pstokely]

?

[Bronco69]

1. Hopefully

as soon as Kerry gives bush* the red ass tonight! :-)

[kevin881]

2. 3 day lag minimum, I would say.

full effect 10 days later or so.

[RoyGBiv]

3. Not for awhile ...

The full effects of the debate(s) will not be known immediately and perhaps will not be known at all except in hindsight, that is barring some major gaff on the part of one of the participants.

The reasons are multiple, but one of the more important is that the effect of the debates is a evolutionary process. Some people will be affected immediately, but probably not enough to be statistically significant, and whatever effect is immediately shown is likely to be misleading. However, the analysis of the debates that will come in the days afterward combined with the cumulative effects of this on public and private discussions will all have an impact that can't be measured specifically in the moment.

To take one example, the effect of the VP debate between Dan Quayle and Lloyd Bentsen was quickly realized and highly favorable to the Dukakis campaign. This was an extreme case due to Bentsen's largely irrelevant but highly charged "you're no Jack Kennedy" comment. Nearly everyone agreed Quayle lost the debate and lost it badly simply due to that. The polls reflected this, but in subsequent days, that reflection disappeared in the wake of other factors. One of these factors was the hammering in RW media of the basic idea that Bentsen's comment said little about the positions of the candidates and was really nothing but a symbolic jab. Within a week, Bentsen was seen by many has having unfairly picked on the younger Quayle in order to avoid addressing the issues. So, the eventual effect on the polls was negative.

In short, you'll know Nov. 3.