Dean tanking... down 13 pts Iowa & 4 pts NH

[windansea]

Iowa Dean -13 points in 30 days
Survey USA Jan 5-7 29
Survey USA Dec 8-10 42

NH Dean -4 points in 3 days
ARG (Tracking) Jan 5-7 35
ARG (Tracking) Jan 2-4 39

Will Harkin's endorsement stop the downward trend??

[LuminousX]

1. Just a normal narrowing of the gap... nothing new here

wake me if someone changes position in the ranking.

[SahaleArm]

4. Perception - It's never as wide as it seems and gets closer...

as people get down to voting. Dean is still solid in NH but I think Clark is doing the right thing in getting free press time.

[KittyWampus]

2. Harkin's Endorement Will Help A Little

Sad how late he waited to do the endorsement, though.

Only one way to find out and wait til votings over. :)

[windansea]

33. yes..interesting

how Harkin said 2 days ago he was leaving it up to the great voters of Iowa...

[ozone_man]

41. I think that was governor Vilsack who said that.

In any case, I think 10 days is perfect timing for the Harkin endorsement with the amount of sludge that is being thrown at Dean. Too early, the endorsement might wear off, too late, and it might not have the full effect. Keep the endorsements coming steadily to offset the sludge factor.

[polpilot]

51. Harkin is America's Forever True Democrat and supports Dean.

Dean '04...

[PurityOfEssence]

69. Yet he voted for the Iraq Resolution too...

Harkin's last run for the Presidency foundered for two reasons: being too far left, and BEING TOO ANGRY.

He used to have quite a reputation for meanness, and it was quite unfair, since he's a very decent guy. He's forceful and hot, though, and the two are often confused.

It really was a puzzling move; I have to believe that he either likes Dean's fervor the best, or thinks he has the best chance to win.

Harkin's a good man, but even he made the wrong call on the Iraq vote.

[Snivi Yllom]

media portraying him tanking

reality is something else

[arcos]

37. do you have a link? n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

39. That is the question.

Hark!

[windansea]

55. links to Dean's tanking numbers

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/IA040108demcaucuses.pdf
http://www.surveyusa.com/2003_Elections/IA031211demcaucuses.pdf

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[arcos]

70. I'm talking about Harkin's endorsement, not Dean's numbers...

you said

"yes..interesting


how Harkin said 2 days ago he was leaving it up to the great voters of Iowa..."

[windansea]

71. a ok n/t

[Hep]

3. How can you tank and still lead?

And I could have sworn these polls are useless.

[windansea]

7. polls aren't useless

nor are they always accurate

tanking is when your lead is getting smaller

just a trend....will be interesting what the polls do in the next few days

[Hep]

17. tell your friends

I get the sneaking suspicion that the value of polls changes with who's posting them.

[Touchdown]

22. No..."Tanking" is inflamatory hyperbole.

Why don't you just say he's going down in flames?:eyes:

[windansea]

27. tank you!!

it's obvious he is not going down in flames...he is still the frontrunner in both states

[oasis]

64. Are you saying there are no flames in self-immolation?

:-)

[windansea]

65. dang

had the perfect cartoon for this but can't find it

:)

[kerry-is-my-prez]

12. In politics momemtum is everything. The question is: can he run out the

clock....

[Hep]

18. Who needs to run out the clock?

Dean opponents have been putting him on the foul line since June.

[windansea]

54. yes

his bush lite comments set the tone for the debate

[Padraig18]

5. Absolutely normal.

Nothing to see here but normal narrowing. What IS pretty significant, however, is Kerry's tanking in NH...

[jpgpenn]

6. The Train Wreck has started.

Expect further declines at a much faster pace.

[Padraig18]

9. Not even a chance.

:)

[windansea]

13. chaos theory

and evolution support the existence of "chance"

also politics!! :)

[Padraig18]

14. The exception also proves the rule.

:)

[windansea]

16. true!

:)

[JNelson6563]

24. yanno I have to give you credit

You always concede a good point.

:toast:

Julie

[windansea]

28. yes

wasn't it you that posted that funny little crybaby pic??

[bitchkitty]

45. And when you're proven wrong,

will you admit it? Or will you just leave since your bashing will no longer be acceptable behavior?

[polpilot]

52. And Senator Harkin is directing traffic. Soooooo what's your prediction??

Dean '04...

[LuminousX]

66. If they don't occur, the declines I mean, will you acknowledge your error?

[killbotfactory]

8. Oh no! Dean's peaked again!

[windansea]

38. looks like it n/t

[INTELBYTES]

10. Mayday!! Mayday!!

I hope Dean has a parachute! Here's too a soft landing!

[RevolutionStartsNow]

11. LOL Tanking my ass!

Watch and learn.

[windansea]

15. believe me

I am watching....haven't "learned" anything yet

[RevolutionStartsNow]

19. Yes, I've noticed that!

But I do like your excellent picture of the wave...

[windansea]

25. tanks...I mean thanks!

the pic kinda goes with my handle

:)

[ozone_man]

42. I think that is the Dean tsunami wave

that is going to sweep the country, starting with Iowa.

[worldgonekrazy]

20. How about a link for that data?

[windansea]

23. here you go

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/IA040108demcaucuses.pdf
http://www.surveyusa.com/2003_Elections/IA031211demcaucuses.pdf

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

40. Laugh-Out-Fucking-Loud!

Did you notice a name missing in that link?

[windansea]

61. Clark??

he's not listed cuz his numbers are going up...not tanking

feel free to post Clark's GAINS if you like

[maddezmom]

21. more like leveling off

we still have a long way to go. Go Wes, I know you can do it!!!

[Clark4VotingRights]

36. Yup, the polls are all over the place. And they have questionable cred

Anyway. But it's lookin' competitive.
So ideally it'll force each candidate to do their best.
It's the minor leagues; are they ready for the show?

[windansea]

67. showtime

[Printer70]

26. More Hyperbole- Dean leading

...political physics- what goes up, must come down. Dean is still leading the early primaries and his early wins will shift the undecidedsd nationally into his column...leaving everyone else in his dust.

[windansea]

29. we'll see

what the voters decide...personally I don't want 2 states to decide our nominee...

[Tweed]

30. Hope not

I can't tell you how much I hope that doesn't happen. Dean insures four more years of Bush.

[funky_bug]

31. We're on the same team

so don't get me wrong here...

But I think you should edit the subject line of this post. "Tanking" is inflammatory.

Polls, for what they're worth (because if you love the front runner the poll is GREAT NEWS, and if you don't the polls, "don't mean anything") rise AND fall and rise again. Ask Kerry. Ask Edwards. Ask Dean. Soon, we'll be asking Clark. It's the nature of the beast... a rollercoaster, if you will.

I give kudos to Dean for this: Yesterday, when asked about his poll-indicating front runner status, he said (paraphrasing), "Polls don't mean much." Good for him. On top, and recognizing an opportunity to be humble.

If Clark's numbers take a dive, are we, ask Clark supporters going to assume he's "tanking", or will we, like Dean supporters, mobilize our team and work harder to give an upward shot?

Just my 2-cents worth. I know it's unusual, but Skinner's lovefest has me thinking clearly again.

Still love the General. Still want the General. Will work for Dean if he gets the nod.

[windansea]

32. thanks

I don't know if tanking is inflammatory...it just means going down or slipping...anyway it's too late to edit OP

I think everybody here takes polls with a grain of salt,,,and if Clark's numbers go down I would admit he is tanking

but right now...Clark is TANKING!!

[funky_bug]

34. Okay comrade

I gotcha ;)

[windansea]

35. wow

that little choo choo is growing fast...why don't you start a train thread for Clark...

[cindyw]

43. Kick for the Real Deal

:kick:

[mvd]

44. No wonder, with..

all the bashing on TV. Unfortunately, if Clark was the front runner, you'd see the mainstream media doing the same to him. The media must get a lot of favors from Republicans.

[windansea]

46. the data posted are from polling sources

not pundits

[mvd]

47. Many people only watch the national news/stations like CNN

So the polling data would show this.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

48. "the data posted "

Doesn't even mention Clark.

Sad.

Post #23
http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/IA040108demcaucuses.pdf
http://www.surveyusa.com/2003_Elections/IA031211demcaucuses.pdf

[windansea]

49. the OP was about Dean's numbers tanking

Clark's numbers are RISING...but feel free to post something that contradicts what I'm saying

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

50. Feel free to post something that even has Clark in it.

Pardon me if I'm calling you on your Bullshit.

[windansea]

53. here you go

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=91827&mesg_id=91827

[windansea]

56. want more??

Dean 39% UNFAVORABLES Nationwide
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of No opinion
2004 Jan 2-5 28 39 17 16

and Clark?? 37% FAVORABLES compared to Dean's 28

Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of No opinion
2004 Jan 2-5 37 26 21 16

looks like a reversal of fortunes to me...

[meow mix]

57. looks like were on track for our 2 points..

7. I also got the information, that Clarks numbers in yesterdays sample was at 22%.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/1/9/185537/0405

on the way to the 30s? tooooot tooooot!

[funky_bug]

60. Good stuff!

Great post! 'Preciate it! I loved one of the responses below about bloggers doing all the work...lol

[stickdog]

58. The nomination is now Clark's to lose. (nt)

[windansea]

59. Kerry may be done

but where will his supporters go??

not to the guy who rediculed him

[Bucky]

62. Reality check (from a Clarkie)

Much as I'd enjoy it, Clark isn't even close to 1st place (yet). Dean certainly isn't tanking. Notice the gap between 1st and 2nd. I'm happy, but Dean still has a big win scenario going here. Here's what it looks like:



I'm encouraged, but not exstatic.

[windansea]

63. Dean tanked more in Iowa

he's still number 1 but falling

I like the upward trend of that green line

I am encouraged too!

[Sean Reynolds]

68. He didn't 'tank'.

Before the last poll Iowa was still a toss-up. The last poll where Dean had a HUGE lead came out just AFTER Gore endorsed him. So of course his numbers went WAY up, just like Bush's did with the capture of Saddam. Now they've come back down to where they were pre-Gore. Which is fine by me.

Of course they'll go back up with Harkin now coming out and will probably stay high being we're so close to election day.

As for NH, Dean's lead is solid. Which SHOWS Clark is getting Kerry supporters and no one is leaving Dean. THAT is the key here. If Clark's lead was growing, while Dean continually was losing in the polls, you'd have a point. But since that isn't the case, it's a win win for BOTH candidates.