Is the South in play?

[aldian159]

I've seen a few threads saying that several southern states that went overwhelmingly for Bush are in play, according to a few polls. Does anyone have any links to any such polls, and if so, could you please post them?

Thanks

[fujiyama]

1. Several states could be close in the south

AR, VA, and NC have all had Kerry within 5 points. TN was closer earlier, but I only saw one recent poll which showed Bush comfortably ahead.

I'm somewhat doubtful that the other states will go for Kerry, but I think Kerry has a chance in AR.

[Ediacara]

2. Arkansas and Virginia

I think will be slim Kerry wins :-), and Tennessee and North Carolina will sadly be slim Bush wins :-(.

[fujiyama]

6. It would be cool

to see Kerry winning VA and AR.

I think those two states will be a lot closer than last time.

[The_Casual_Observer]

3. The south is the lowest common denominator

and might drag everything down to it's pitiful knuckle dragging level in the end.

[Leilani]

4. Saw some internals of a poll posted earlier

& kerry was doing better in the South than the Midwest.

I was surprised by that, so it caught my attention.

[foo_bar]

9. "its" pitiful level

[Jacobin]

12. So, how's New Hampshire looking?

I hear Wisconsin may be in trouble too. and Ohio, that great southern state, it's like 50/50.

Whew. Glad you guys in the northern part of the country have it all nailed down for us. Otherwise, we'd be fucked.

/sarcasm

[Skip Intro]

13. ?

[ButterflyBlood]

5. At this point, the only state that is is Florida

since Kerry has basically pulled ads in all other states in the south.

[aldian159]

7. Self-serving kick

[secular_warrior]

8. If Gore couldn't do much down there I don't see Kerry

doing any better being a yankee, and the country and the south especially has shifted to the right since 9-11.

Florida is probably the only state in the south in play, but then again, Florida really isn't a "southern state".

[Lexingtonian]

10. they have small Bush margins, but those are solid

Projecting from the past three Presidential elections, at equal turnout rates a lot of the South has pretty small margins. And polling this year seems to confirm that the South is slipping more Democratic at a rate about the same as the rest of the country on average (~3% per four years). At equal turnout rates (a big caveat), this year they should be Republican by percentages like:
Virginia 51%
Arkansas 51%
North Carolina 52%
Missouri 52%
Louisiana 52%
South Carolina 53%
Georgia 54-55%
Texas 54-55%
Kentucky 56%
Alabama 56-57%
Mississippi 56-57%
(Florida) (47%R, 52%D)
(West Virginia) (49-50%R)

In some cases the 3% shift in 4 years is seen as a change only in the Democratic numbers and coming at a 3% decrease in ballots with blanks for the Presidential choice, or spoiled ones, and third party candidate votes. E.g. Virginia was 51-46 in '00 and polling points to 51-49 this time around.

Of course there will be massive Christian Right turnout which will increase the Republican numbers in the final tally by various amounts. But this list above is a list of the baseline numbers that seem to shift nationally with such consistency every couple of years that it just has to reflect the elderly white, Republican voting but mostly registered as Democratic, part of the electorate dying and that demographic being replaced by younger voters who are much more nonwhite and by majority vote Democratic.

What the numbers really say is that in the next few years the GOP will either lose the South and become a permanent minority party for a couple of decades, or it will implode, shed its present leaders and reactionary social policy platform, and necessarily spend a couple of years redefining itself as socially moderate and economically moderate/conservative Party. Basically, if Kerry wins this year then meltdown of their last major holds on power could well take place in 2005/06 and end on Election Day of 2006. If not, the day of reckoning will probably be deferred to the 2008 elections.

[aldian159]

11. Thanks, good stuff

n/t