The number of undecided/other voters has been at 8%

[TruthIsAll]

since January.

If 75% of undecided/other go for Kerry, he wins 52%-48%.
And Bush doesn't get all the 48%. Nader and other 3rd parties will get their share.

So...it's Kerry.

MONTHLY AVERAGE TREND
Independent National Poll Group

......Kerry Bush Other Diff Kerry 2party%
Jan 45.67 47.67 6.67 -2.00 48.93
Feb 48.20 44.80 7.00 3.40 51.83
Mar 47.33 44.83 7.83 2.50 51.36
Apr 46.00 45.00 9.00 1.00 50.55
May 46.83 44.17 9.00 2.67 51.47
June 45.83 45.50 8.67 0.33 50.18
July 47.50 44.17 8.33 3.33 51.82
Aug 48.00 44.33 7.67 3.67 51.99
Sept 46.00 46.00 8.00 0.00 50.00

Independent Poll Group:
ARG
Harris
Zogby
Economist
Quinnipac
Dem Corp
PEW
IBD

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Sydnie]

1. I hope you're right!

Glad to see you made it through the latest hurricane as well!

[shockingelk]

2. "undecided" ...

We've seen swings far greater that 8% in the same polls.

People just say they're undecided. Others just say they'll vote for a particular candidate.

I think the internals of polls that ask how likely a voter will change their mind is a more important statistic.