9/26 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 310EV, 95% PROB, GA 42-43 WTF?

[TruthIsAll]

Kerry's chances just went up a bit. Rasmussen has him trailing in GA by one point!

Not that I think Kerry will carry the state. But it's good news, no?

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[faithnotgreed]

1. where do the other polls have georgia? or

do the other polling firms even have stats on georgia?

thanks

[Melodybe]

3. One of my best friends lives in Savannah and she said repubs are pissed

apparently the St. Patricks day parade is the biggest event of the year and their new republican Gov. did not attend. However, Max Cleland rode on one of the floats and got the most cheers.

[faithnotgreed]

5. good for max!

[robcon]

4. electoral-vote.com has Bush ahead by 1 (Rasmussen 9/23)

dalythoughts.com has Bush ahead by 15 (SurveyUSA, 9/15)

[louis c]

13. Where is this coming from

I watch Rasmussen daily, and on Friday, September 24, he has Bush at 53% and Kerry 42%, that's 11 points, not 1 point.

Someone is reporting a type-o, because I am looking at the printed results right now.

I wish it were true, but please don't pass along incorrect info, because it undermines the credibility of the poll.

[featherman]

2. strange GA result - not likely but fun

Kinda like the TN results from (somebody) a month or so ago.

[GeorgeBushytail]

9. Just sent my daughter to college in GA

She's at Savannah College of Art and Design. I hope this lights a fire under her to do some volunteer work.

I'm going to forward that link to her.

Thanks!

[Roland99]

16. And that's a Rasmussen Poll, too!

I wonder what Zogby says about Georgia...interesting.

[noamnety]

6. electoral-vote may have introduced a typo

Sounds like the 1% might be 11% according to rasmussen.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=902042

[louis c]

14. You're correct

9/24 Georgia, Bush 53%-Kerry 42%; 11 points, not 1 point.

[belle]

15. Kind of a shock to see Mississippi as "weak" Bush, though.

The whole thing looks completely out of whack, though. Maine leaning to Bush? Well, possibly, but Maryland a tossup?? Wisconsin strong Bush?! when it was stong kerry not so long ago? i think?

There *was* an EV some weeks back that had GA as the thin red outline, or possibly even a thin blue line. No, red; but it could well have been within one or two points. Of course, that was a while ago.

I think I'm about ready to start dismissing *all* polls. It's just been all over the map this season.

[AndyTiedye]

7. Georgia Uses Diebold Republican Electing Machinez Everywhere

Kerry could be up 16 points and "lose".

Ask former Senator Max Cleland or former Governor Roy Barnes.

[TruthIsAll]

8. I agree Andy, GA is as crooked as they come.

I calculated the probability of fraud in the 2002 Senate races.

I'll get the link in a minute.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=85732

[TruthIsAll]

10. I just replaced GA with the prior poll. Kerry at 300 EV, 91% prob

I don't believe its a one point race (must be a typo). In any case, Kerry can get the most votes in GA and he'd still lose.

Diebold.

[leftchick]

11. CBS: "The debates with bush* leading in the polls"

That is how they announced their interviews with John Edwards and scumbbag bartlett about the upcoming debates. How the hell do they get away with that?

:grr:

[TruthIsAll]

17. Because they can and they must - to keep their jobs. Whores.

tia

[flaminbats]

12. What about the missing 15% in Georgia?

Are those individuals undecided, not polled, or just not registered as voters?

Then I looked at the national polls...Newsweek currently has * at 50% and Kerry with 45%...but what about the remaining 5%? ABC has Kerry with 49% and * with 48%, but what about the missing 3%?

I hate polls, focus groups, and this whole media driven culture. I love Kerry's campaign message, the two-party system, and people who are still honest about their beliefs. More and more I have noticed Republicans are unwilling to defend their party. They always lash out at Kerry or liberals in general, but they suddenly claim to be undecided whenever * is brought into the conversation. This becomes particularly frustrating for those of us going door to door for Kerry! How do I know these people are Republicans? As I drive out of the neighborhood, I often see these "undecided" individuals putting Bush/Cheney signs back in their yards. :mad:

Someday I should thank them for wasting our time...Has anyone else at DU encountered this problem when canvassing for votes? Does anyone have a better method of determining who is still undecided and who is a likely Republican?