Election Model enhancements...

[TruthIsAll]

On the first screen, compare the 8 national independent pollsters current average to that of the full 18 national group (which includes the corporates and independents).

The 10 Corporate pollsters have Bush leading by about 4%.
The Independents have it dead even.
When you combine them, Bush as an average 2% lead in the 18 polls.

The Independent pollsters average is very close to the equivalent national percentages based on the latest state polls.

Trust the Independents.


The Independents:
The Economist, Zogby, ARG, Harris, PEW, IBD, Democratic Corp, Quinnipac

The Corporates:
Cnn/Gallup, Time, Newsweek, AP, FOX, NBC, ABC, ICR, CBS, LAT

GROUP: IND. CORP STATE
CURRENT%
Kerry 46.00 45.39 46.83
Bush 46.00 47.72 46.29

PROJECTED%
Kerry 50.80 49.52 50.96
Bush 49.20 50.48 49.04

WIN PROBABILITY%
Kerry 68.0 38.7 92.2
Bush 32.0 61.3 7.8


Also new on the first screen:
Kerry's 2-party vote vs. Bush in 18 Battleground states.

LATEST POLLS:
Kerry % of 2-party vote

AZ 49.5 NH 48.9
AR 48.4 NC 47.3
CO 49.5 OH 48.9
FL 50.5 PA 50.5
IA 51.5 TN 46.2
MI 54.5 VA 48.5
MN 52.1 WA 54.5
MO 46.8 WV 50.0
NV 48.8 WI 51.2


http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[meti57b]

1. Beautiful work ... thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Redneck Socialist]

2. Can you explain the 2 party vote?

I'm not sure what exactly I'm looking at there.

PS How'd the hurricane treat you?

[TruthIsAll]

4. The 2-part vote is just Kerry vs. Bush. Let's look at AZ.

The latest poll:s
Kerry 48%
Bush 49%

Kerry's 2-party% = 48/(48+49) = 48/97 = 49.5%

As for Jeanne, not as bad as I thought it would be.

TIA

[Redneck Socialist]

6. Got'cha, thanks.

Glad to hear the Jeane wasn't so bad. Keep up the good work.

[Iceburg]

3. Very timely ... just went thru a similiar debate last night

on the Independent poll averages versus the Network/propganda poll averages.

Thanks for all your hard work and thorough analysis.

[Guaranteed]

5. If you're still using the 60-70% of undecideds going to Kerry,

I'm not sure if that's a good idea. This election may not play out like previous elections have. The dynamics seem to be very different.

[Toronto Ron]

7. electoral-vote.com should be made aware of this

That site is useful but for its inclusion of polls that are obviously biased.

[TruthIsAll]

8. I agree. That's why I did not include those biased polls

in my latest run. I kept all of Zogby's and ARG's numbers.

Badger, Gallup, Survey USA - no way!

[TruthIsAll]

9. NOTE: Independent pollsters national probabilities are too LOW!

I fixed it in the model.

See my other post this morning.

Simply put, the MOE for a group of polls is lower than for a single poll (3.10%). For 8 polls it is 1.10%.

This has the effect of increasing Kerry's probability to 92%.

[Heath.Hunnicutt]

11. What effect does adding Nader have?

He is on the ballot in some of these states, and may lose it all for us. Is he figured into your model?

[TruthIsAll]

12. Don't worry about Nader. Worry about Diebold.

Nader will NOT be a factor. He may get a little more than 1%. He got 2.77% last time. He might even take votes from Bush.

BTW, there are other 3rd party (libertarian) candidates who may hurt Bush.

No, Kerry is a sure winner. Only BBV and Jeb Bush fraud in FL can hurt him. That's if we let them get away with it this time.

[Liberal Gramma]

10. Thank you!

Your analyses always cheer me up!