Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Why the debates won't be a turning point in the campaign

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU
 
ps1074 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-26-04 06:14 AM
Original message
Why the debates won't be a turning point in the campaign
Well, first - they won't debate anything. It will be just a Q and A session with the moderator. Questions will be soft balls. Both Bush and Kerry will repeat what we already hear on the stump. Nothing new really.

If you expect Kerry to call Bush a liar, don't hold your breath. It won't happen.

There will be no clear winner. Both camps will declare their candidate the winner. The media will split as to who won. Nothing will change.

These debates are just another chance to get your talking points to a larger audience.

My hope is that people watching them will finally realize what an idiot Bush is.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
Hello_Kitty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-26-04 06:15 AM
Response to Original message
1. How could they not? n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
WildClarySage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-26-04 06:24 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. They've managed to ignore the obvious
so far...
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Spinzonner Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-26-04 06:24 AM
Response to Original message
2. Probably the best to hope for is to catch Shrub in Jerry Ford moment

or something like explaining 'Sovereignty'
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Powderkeg Donating Member (8 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-26-04 06:30 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. Yep, the formats are limited...
but I'm a little more optimistic. I think the public, especially undecideds, will watch and this may be our opportunity to score big, or at least, regain whatever was lost in the CBS debacle.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Kolesar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-26-04 06:30 AM
Response to Original message
5. JK should just go off topic from the question that was asked...
...and use the opportunity to lob some 16" rounds at the Bush campaign. Kerry could introduce something like "ties to the Saudis" or "9/11 culpability" that heretofore has been ignored. Bush will not know how to respond.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
annabanana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-26-04 06:44 AM
Response to Original message
6. Ummm..the Media WON'T "split"
If Bush doesn't actually shit himself and go "blah blah goo, goo" they will act as if he "comported himself in a statesman-like fashion, in spite of the barrage of 'facts' that his opponent presented"

They even might do that if Bush DOES shit himself and go "blah,blah,goo,goo"
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Lexingtonian Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-26-04 06:47 AM
Response to Original message
7. But that, too, would be decisive and in Kerry's favor

I have no problem with the scenario you describe. As long as it all reminds everyone of the good reasons why they object to Bush and others of good reasons they object to Kerry, it's fine with me.

Our side has everything to gain by driving support for each candidate to his baseline, which is 44-45% for Bush (1-2% below present numbers) and 48-49% for Kerry (4-5% above present numbers). Split the Undecideds the usual way (70-80% vote for the challenger) and it's a decisive, majority, Kerry win. I'll gladly take a 45/45 split too.

Bush doesn't actually get votes for what he really is, btw. He gets them for what he represents- the America of the 1930s to 1960s, where white men ran everything and (white) people didn't have or seem to need much of an education in order to advance in their jobs. When ignorance/minimal competence, religiosity, conformity, and obedience to The Man was enough for a manageable and simple life as a minion and The Good Minion got some fun knicknacks that people who weren't as compliant didn't get.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bread_and_roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-26-04 09:48 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. What a good point
your third paragraph makes.

There is a long but interesting and worth reading article that speaks to the cultural divide between the innovative, diverse, creative, high-tech sectors of the economy and the population (largely urban, Democratic) and the traditional, conservative, low-tech (largely Republican, non-urban) sectors - and how the current administrations contempt for science and fear of diversity is harming our economy and standing in the world.

The article is "Creative Class War,By Richard Florida, Washington Monthly. Posted January 15, 2004. It can be found at
http://www.alternet.org/election04/17576/

"Why would talented foreigners avoid us?...having talked to hundreds of talented professionals in a half dozen countries over the past year, I'm convinced that the biggest reason has to do with the changed political and policy landscape in Washington. In the 1990s, the federal government focused on expanding America's human capital and interconnectedness to the world -- crafting international trade agreements, investing in cutting edge R&D, subsidizing higher education and public access to the Internet, and encouraging immigration. But in the last three years, the government's attention and resources have shifted to older sectors of the economy, with tariff protection and subsidies to extractive industries. Meanwhile, Washington has stunned scientists across the world with its disregard for consensus scientific views when those views conflict with the interests of favored sectors (as has been the case with the issue of global climate change). Most of all, in the wake of 9/11, Washington has inspired the fury of the world, especially of its educated classes, with its my-way-or-the-highway foreign policy. In effect, for the first time in our history, we're saying to highly mobile and very finicky global talent, "You don't belong here."

"Obviously, this shift has come about with the changing of the political guard in Washington, from the internationalist Bill Clinton to the aggressively unilateralist George W. Bush. But its roots go much deeper, to a tectonic change in the country's political-economic demographics. As many have noted, America is becoming more geographically polarized, with the culturally more traditionalist, rural, small-town, and exurban "red" parts of the country increasingly voting Republican, and the culturally more progressive urban and suburban "blue" areas going ever more Democratic. Less noted is the degree to which these lines demarcate a growing economic divide, with "blue" patches representing the talent-laden, immigrant-rich creative centers that have largely propelled economic growth, and the "red" parts representing the economically lagging hinterlands. The migrations that feed creative-center economies are also exacerbating the contrasts. As talented individuals, eager for better career opportunities and more adventurous, diverse lifestyles, move to the innovative cities, the hinterlands become even more culturally conservative. Now, the demographic dynamic which propelled America's creative economy has produced a political dynamic that could choke that economy off. Though none of the candidates for president has quite framed it that way, it's what's really at stake in the 2004 elections."

The article notes that global talent is moving to friendlier shores - New Zealand, Europe - and thus they are reaping the gains of the new technologies that drive economic growth.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Leilani Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-26-04 07:12 AM
Response to Original message
8. I disagree...I think it could make a huge difference.
From what I can see, a lot of people do not like Bush, & are very unhappy with many things.

But I don t think they know Kerry...they don t know if they agree with him, or trust him enough to vote for him.

If he reassures voters, I think he wins.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
cidliz2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-26-04 10:12 AM
Response to Reply #8
11. Bingo! You hit the nail on the head
Way too many people still don't know much about Kerry. During the much watched debateds, Kerry has his chance to connect and reassure people on who he is and what he stands for. That is why the debates are important - even though they aren't debates.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
anakie Donating Member (935 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-26-04 10:05 AM
Response to Original message
10. a debate??
when they know the questions in advance and wont be engaging each other. What a crock of shit.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
blondeatlast Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-26-04 10:17 AM
Response to Original message
12. Kerry is a closer. This is the moment he's been waiting for.
Of ccourse, Kerry hasn't a chance in hell of winning.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
bread_and_roses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-26-04 10:20 AM
Response to Original message
13. Being both heretical and optimistic - I agree
I simply don't buy the "undecideds" as a huge factor in this election. Only my opinion, of course, but I think the huge #s of new Dem voters and a massive GOTV effort is going to decide the election.

Kerry is both intelligent and articulate and I can't imagine anything he could say that would turn off any of the Dem "base" or make some "undecided" suddenly have an "ah ha!" moment that the puppet in the WH is preferable.

And the unelected fraud in occupancy has nothing to say but the same old tired lies - which I haven't noticed giving him any huge advantage in the polls yet - so why should they suddenly convince any significant number of people?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
KharmaTrain Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-26-04 10:21 AM
Response to Original message
14. It's All A Perception Game
Both men will be side by side...like comparing meat at Pigly Wigly...it's who looks "Presidential" or screws up. It's all surface and all bets are off on how it will turn out. But to underestimate it's importance to some is to keep playing an on-going denial game. Enjoy!
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
BillZBubb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-26-04 10:49 AM
Response to Original message
15. The debates could be THE turning point.
The major reason for this is that the public will see Kerry and Bush* at the same time, for the first time.

Realizing Bush* is an idiot is not the important factor here. Enough people already know Bush* is a failure.

The ONE thing that must happen is for Kerry to be seen as a suitable replacement for Bush*. A majority want Bush* gone. But a majority still doesn't see Kerry as presidential material.

If Kerry can close the "stature gap" and be seen as presidential, the election is over--we win. If he fails to do that, we have an uphill and likely losing battle ahead. And that determination by the voters won't depend on facts, it will be made on appearance, style, and confidence--ie intangibles.

This first debate is for all the marbles.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Tue Apr 30th 2024, 12:10 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Archives » General Discussion: Presidential (Through Nov 2009) Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC