Dean at 35%, Clark at 20% in NH- Clark is surging!

[TakebackAmerica]

2004 New Hampshire Democratic Tracking
3-Day Results

Jan 2-4 Jan 3-5 Jan 4-6 Jan 5-7 Jan 6-8
Dean 39% 37% 36% 35% 35%
Clark 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

Clark has gained 8% points in 6 days!

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[Atlant]

1. That's okay -- the Doctor has surge protectors! (NT)

[TakebackAmerica]

2. LOL!

Dean seems to be hovering around 35%.


My NH Prediction

Dean 35%
Clark 26%

The rest in single digits.

[windansea]

3. Dean could TANK a bit more

depending on what happens in Iowa

[CMT]

5. or he could surge

unlike Clark he decided to face Iowa voters. If he wins it could produce a surge. Remember in '88, Gephardt was at 3% in NH polls, then he won Iowa and he ended up finishing second with 22%. If Dean wins Iowa (and still a good chance of that happening) he will gain ground.

As it is Dean's average since the tracking polls began in NH is 37% he had a one day high of 39%. He is now stable at 35% the past two days and well within the moe. It seems to me that Clark's surge is coming more from Kerry who has declined from 19% to 11%.

[windansea]

6. true

Clark will take points from wherever he gets them!

[Clark4Prez]

8. Clark surge not coming from Kerry

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=89507

I just posted this rebuttle to that misconception.

[tedoll78]

4. Wait..

You think Kerry's gonna be in single digits?
I wonder about that..

I think it'll largely depend on Iowa. If Kerry shows-up strong there, he'll get a week of positive media coverage between Iowa and New Hampshire, which could re-situate him in second place.

Even though it's too fluid to predict accurately, I'm willing to bet that Kerry can get a mere 10% in his own backyard.

[Clark4Prez]

7. My Crystal Ball

Dean 38%

Clark 30%

Kerry 10%

Single digits for the rest.