We might as well give up -- it's a Bush landslide

[quaoar]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

OMG! OMG! The sky is falling!

Bush leads in Oregon, winning by landslide in Wisconsin.

Yep. Might as well pack it in. We lost a 12-point lead in Oregon in a matter of a few days. The voters in Oregon must have been impressed with Bush's stunning performance in the Rose Garden yesterday. What else can explain it?

I think I'm gonna start my own polling firm and release a survey showing that Kerry is now leading in Nebraska 54% to 39%. It would be just as credible.

[Jack_Dawson]

1. Oregon is smarter than that

No way does Dumbass-in-Chief carry Oregon.

[MissB]

23. No *fucking* way.

Period. Oregon does not love *

[treading_water]

29. Agreed.

Monday, I was phonebanking for Carry Oregon and calling Prineville. Solid Rural Bush Country, right? Wrong. I was getting Kerry votes, Kerry leans and undecideds that just needed to hear Kerry's message.

Oregon is blue and will stay that way.

[Arugula Latte]

31. Agreed.

The Multnomah County vote against Bush will be unprecedented, IMO.

Portland/Eugene will swamp the thugs.

[sandnsea]

41. South Coast is Kerry too

I've seen 3 Bush signs in Florence, a couple on my recent trip to Coos Bay. Way more Kerry signs, Oregon is going Kerry, no doubt about it.

[bitchkitty]

51. We have mail in ballots and I am NERVOUS. n/t

[hatrack]

2. Did you see the Utah results from yesterday?!?!

In an astounding turnaround, Kerry now leads Bush in the Beehive State by a commanding 28 points, 59-31%. 2% of those surveyed chose Ralph Nader and the remaining 8% were undecided.

[Jack_Dawson]

8. Get outta here...

[hatrack]

10. Hey, if these "scientific" polling companies can pull #s out their ass . .

Why shouldn't I? ;-)

[FirstDoNoHarm]

34. Did Kerry get the NRA endorsment in Utah?

All he needs now are the off-roaders and snowmobilers and it's a walk.

[Kathy in Cambridge]

43. What the hell are you talking about?

:shrug:

[Piperay]

44. Huh???

*sniff, sniff, sniff* ... something doesn't smell right around here.

[Zorbet55]

48. Kerry leads in MS/AL/LA

Latest Ogleby/Shiskroft polling shows solid leads by Kerry of 20-30% in each of these states. It's a polling frenzy out there. Be careful.

[Search Party]

3. Polls / * / Media spinning their heads off their shoulders

a sure sign of desperation IMHO

[Rockholm]

4. Survey USA...Please.

Look at SC. Last time Kerry was close enough for it to be labled "weak Bush" and now he is up by 20 points. Kool aid time folks.

[CrispyQ]

25. Yep. Last week Colorado was white, neck-n-neck. Now it's solid red.

Polls are bullshit. The only poll that matters is the one on Nov 2.

[trogdor]

28. I pulled my link to Polling Report from my website.

I'm about to write up an article explaining why. The biggest reason is, PR assumes all polls are created equal. There is no way you can go by their map.

[Warren DeMontague]

47. Aren't Survey USA The folks who called California "In Play"

in the middle of August?

Crackheads, the lot of 'em. But it did allow some folks here to get some much-needed (apparently) California Bashing out of their systems. At which point reality set in again, i.e. that Kerry has CA by double digits.

Survey USA my ass.

[boxster]

5. "leading in Nebraska 54% to 39%"

Hey, I have no doubt that a lot of people are really gullible, but NOBODY would believe that one.

;)

[Norquist Nemesis]

6. All of that red in the middle of the country

looks like a great big bloodstain. :(

[TheFarseer]

7. I know this guy means well but,

he uses too many garbage polls for the sake of being current. I say get the polls that were closest to the actual results last election(I'm guessing that doesn't include Badger poll, Mason/Dixon or Survey USA) and stick with those.

[still_one]

9. Read the comments

The poll results are not reliable

In fact he strongly implies it depends on who is doing the polling, which suggests a political agenda at work here


One thing I did not mention yesterday but many of you mentioned is the wild swing in Wisconsin. That is indeed very fishy. But there are wild swings today too. Florida went from Kerry by 1 to Bush by 8. Even more unlikely is the change in Oregon, which went from a 12% Kerry lead yesterday to a 1% Bush lead today. Such wide swings are just not believable in the absence of major news. The only variable being changed is which pollster is doing the reporting. If you haven't checked out the pollster page, you might want to do it to see how the map is affected by who is doing the polling.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

http://www.electoral-vote.com

Among likely voters:

9/21-22/04 bush 45 Kerry 43 undecided 11 no vote 1

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[RodneyCK2]

13. Exactly, there is something fishy with a few of these polls.

Plus, we have three debates coming up, plus the VP's, which should boost Kerry/Edwards (I hope). Hang on to your pants, we got a bumpy six weeks left.

[Inland]

11. Where do they get their stuff? Zogby just released

its result yesterday, Kerry ten points up in Oregon.

[MrBenchley]

12. And don't forget the polls are EVEN BETTER in Iraq!!

Der fuehrer said so at the press conference yesterday, so it must be true....

[DemMother]

14. That site is worthless.

I know he's a Kerry supporter, but it's a ridiculous site. It freaks my poor brother out--although I think even he is taking it with a grain of salt. There are so many more knowledgeable people out there--Donkey Rising, MyDD.com--I don't waste my time on electoral-vote.com. Maybe the one service he does perform is to underline how absurd polling has become this year.

[Heath.Hunnicutt]

24. That site wastes a lot of our energy, but...

Looking at the state-by-state trends, you can sort of figure out what is really happening.

Too bad he is just a beginner trying to get the message out. The fact that people care about his news so much is a good sign, imo.

[Snivi Yllom]

15. Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 217 Bush 311

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[moondust]

32. Worthless. n/t

[The Chronicler]

16. The cable news is of course only showing polls favorable to Bush

Just like 2000.

[RevCheesehead]

17. Why I no longer believe the polls

I'd keep the high numbers and throw out the rest. Even the Badger Poll claims its numbers are not a strong indicator, and the race may indeed be much closer than indicated. They only sampled likely registered voters, and did not count the THOUSANDS of new voters.

[SOS]

18. CNN

now reporting a Bush electoral landslide, 301-237.
Apparently millions of Gore voters have switched to Republican.

:eyes:

Fake polls + Diebold = 301 electoral votes.

[okieinpain]

19. try this one. this guy shows if electio today, kerry loses elect

but wins popular.

http://www.race2004.net/

[Mr Blond]

20. That site has been trumpeted here for months!!

And all along, I've tried to say that we just need to ignore all these sites and the polls and STAY POSITIVE! Just keep working hard and on November 3rd, we'll wake-up and the fruits of all our labor will be realized.

There is no reason to change that stance now!!

[West Coast Democrat]

21. Bush* will not win Oregon. It won't happen

Oregon is a solid Kerry state. I've heard of too many Republicans who are voting for Kerry this time.

[Bleacher Creature]

22. And with the debates coming

there's no way we can catch-up. How is Kerry possibly going to make any headway after he gets slaughtered on national television by the greatest debater of the modern era?

Since Bush is -- in essence -- both Lincoln and Douglas in terms of his debating skills, we might as well start looking towards 2008.

[GOPNotForMe]

26. That is some messed up junk.

I really wish that site didn't exist. It creates too much drama. Just wait till Nov. 2!!

[KansDem]

27. For what it's worth..."Kerry is Doing Much Better than the Polls State"

Kerry is Doing Much Better than the Polls State

September 20, 2004

By: Andrew Limburg
Independent Media TV

(excerpt)
Unfortunately, the deceitful Newsweek Poll that showed the 11-point "bounce" was because the pollsters at Newsweek polled "38% Republican, 31% Democrat and 31% Independent voters". This is very deceitful because the Republicans, in recent history have NOT come even come close to that type of voter turnout. Pollster Scott Rasmussen says the Time Magazine Poll that showed an 11- point bounce after the convention, also over sampled 38% Republicans.

What should be taken under consideration is the level of motivation that the Democrats and Republicans have. While it is true that the left is not overly thrilled about Kerry, there is great motivation not seen in a very long time, on the democratic side of the voter spectrum to remove Bush from power. This is evident from the largest protests since Vietnam both in February 2003, and the record breaking protest during the Republican Convention. It's obvious that the left is very motivated to remove Bush.

Some more evidence of the motivation from the left, was the voter turnout that broke records in many of the early Democratic primaries. The voter turnout in the primaries faded as the choice became clear, but there can be no denying how motivated the left is.

Second of all, while is true that Bush has strong support among the Republican base, there are many, while they do not intend to vote for Kerry, are finding it difficult to pull the lever for Bush. They are generally moderate Republicans and Independents who have voted Republican in the past and they are concerned about Bush's spending, the deficit, the economy and his arrogance with international affairs. Bush has alienated some long time friends, and not all Republicans are pleased about this.

http://www.independent-media.tv/item.cfm?fmedia_id=9030&fcategory_desc=Under%20Reported

[DemFromMem]

30. Maintaining your sanity

I think polls are mainly useful in terms of monitoring trends and not in getting an exact picture of where things. Though Rasmussen is a Republican, his polling seems to be closest to what we intuitively know is probably happening. I've been monitoring the poll each day since March (as I'm sure many of you have). He has never showed the wild swings other polls are reporting and he's polling a large sample every single day. The race has never been outside of a five point margin and is now showing the race separated by less than 1%.

His state numbers are also extremely close. This race is going to be all about turnout. Forget the polls. The race is close enough and will remain close enough so that either guy has a chance if he can get his base out in big number.

There is one thing about all the polls I've wondered about. There are 30 million Hispanics in the country and a large number of them are citizens (more than 2 million naturalized just since the last election). And about 1 in 10 Americans was born in another country. I work with immigrants every day in my work and my sense is that the polls would not be picking up these voters. First, there are language barriers. Are the polls designed for people who don't speak English well (i.e. are the questions available in Spanish, Chinese, Arabic, etc.)? Second, many people from other countries are suspicious when strangers ask questions about their politics. I think this might explain why Gore did a little better on election day than the polls were saying since immigrant voters tend to favor the Democrats. Do the pollsters actually try and factor these issues in when they're doing their analyses?

[4_Legs_Good]

33. I've thought polls were BS too many times in the past and been proven

wrong.

The bottom line is that they DO mean something, and if we ignore them we're fooling ourselves. I know that's not the popular thing to say here, but I'm afraid it's true.

The bottom line is, IMO, that we're behind right now. Yes some of the #s are BS, but if you filter out the garbage you get a pretty good indication of what's going on, and we're trailing.

The verdict isn't that "we need to stay positive" or give up, it's that we need to work harder if we want to win. Kerry, Edwards and the gang need to work harder too.

The debates are really our best chance to turn this around. If Kerry comes across better than Gore did in 2000, we've got a very good shot at this thing. If he flounders or everyone goes easy on George Jr., I'm not hopeful.

I do know, however, that we've all put in a TREMENDOUS amount of time and even more money into this thing (the DNC is breaking me and I'm not even a freaking Democrat!). We're still working hard individually and through ACT and DFA and MoveOn, and we'll keep it up until November 3rd. I just hope on the 4th I can wake up on a day when I can sleep soundly that night.

Keep your spirits up and keep working hard. And for God's sake, Kerry, get rested up for those debates!!!

david

[NJCher]

50. I agree

But my reasoning on what to do is a little different than yours. Of course we must all put a tremendous amount of time and effort into this election but we must also realize something very important: Kerry has changed his strategy and these polls do not reflect the impact of that strategy.

In the last two weeks, Kerry has been hitting hard on bush's failure in Iraq. Repetition is what works when talking to the masses. Soon the effect of this repetition will begin to take effect. That is when you will see Kerry begin to pull ahead. I would guess three weeks or a little more to begin to see the effect.

What we can do on a local level is reinforce Kerry's message. When we are canvassing, we can reiterate his message on the personal level. We can reiterate not only in our volunteer work but in every contact where it's feasible--friends, co-workers, even casual conversations with strangers, if appropriate.

Yes, the debates are important but I'm not so sure they can outweigh the emotional factors at work here. We need to prove that bush has been incompetent in diverting attention to Iraq from Al Quaeda. Bush HAS NOT and WILL NOT make us safer in the future--in fact he endangers us.


Cher

[Habituallyillhumored]

35. A bunch of BS

[NoBorders]

36. that site shows wild swings, but

the person who runs it doesn't deny this. Read their own commentary:

-snip
One thing I did not mention yesterday but many of you mentioned is the wild swing in Wisconsin. That is indeed very fishy. But there are wild swings today too. Florida went from Kerry by 1 to Bush by 8. Even more unlikely is the change in Oregon, which went from a 12% Kerry lead yesterday to a 1% Bush lead today. Such wide swings are just not believable in the absence of major news. The only variable being changed is which pollster is doing the reporting. If you haven't checked out the pollster page, you might want to do it to see how the map is affected by who is doing the polling.
-snp

[Barney Rocks]

37. those sites are fun

to look at but don't take them seriously. The methodology for so many of these polls is flawed. The maps are based on the flawed data--so they are incorrect. I respect the site providers for trying to do a good job--and I do like looking the maps do not represent reality.

[stoptheinsanity]

38. Look at history...that's the best indicator

I say look at previous elections to see how far off the individual polls were. Weren't most of the polls showing Gore down by 2 or 3 in the last election?

[rocktivity]

39. I think the Bush regime has ordered the GOP to strongarm pollsters

into keeping the GOP covention bounce alive by oversampling Republican voters. If Gallup is doing it, it's a VERY safe bet that everybody else is. At least, it would explain why a newspaper was picketed by representatives of a state GOP office for publishing a poll with Kerry in the lead!

:headbang:
rocknation

[sandnsea]

40. Oregon is Kerry country, trust me

No way we're losing this state. I STILL don't see any Bush signs and more Kerry go up every day. This state is Kerry, easily. New poll coming out, I just got polled last night. Wait for that one.

[mzmolly]

42. This predictor changes daily.

*yawn*

;)

[SoCalDemocrat]

45. Hmm

It says Bush is barely ahead 48% to 47% vs. Kerry in Oregon. Still sucks though if we had 12 points. You have to question most of these polls, especially near election time. I would possibly trust Zogby and Rasmussen.

[saracat]

46. Exactly why does anyone post this crap?

It only demoralizes people and it isn't true. Stop it. This suppresses the vote, which is what it is meant to do!

[daydreamer]

49. your are right.

This is no time for self doubt. Do everything possible as as individual or as group to talk to friends, relative, co-workers or anyone within your reach. Spread the words of truth. John Kerry will win. I firmly believe America as whole is not stupid enough to reelect Bush.

[goodwalt]

52. The Elephant on My Lawn

Of course it serves no purpose to play "Chicken Little" over the screwy poll numbers. But somebody, SOMEBODY needs to be commenting on the fact that they ARE, in fact, SCREWY! None of the major media outlets seem to be doing so. The talking heads- from Russert to Trippi- keep making their reports commenting on the "bad" poll numbers for Kerry, and giving their opinions on why he is slipping so far behind in the polls. Hardly anyone is noting that Kerry's "slide" has come out of no-where, and is NOT reflected at all by several established polling outlets (Zogby,Pew,Rasmussen)whose numbers have remained fairly steady.

I think there is a BIG news story here- and not surprisingly, our lap-dog media seem to be missing it.

Polling isn't done with a OUJI board- it is a semi-scientific process. Pollsters that are genuinely trying to gage the pulse of the voting public will deviate SOME in their numbers, but not with the wild divergence we are seeing. THAT is the story that is being over-looked. A significant number of pollsters, Gallup included, are not even TRYING to give accurate numbers. So what ARE they doing? Well, since the anomalous numbers consistently favor Bush, the only reasonable conclusion is that they are actively trying to influence the election by skewing their numbers.

Excuse me, but isn't THAT a news story that should be reported to the public? How are they doing it? Do they disproportionately poll Repugs and Independents like some have done? Are the people working the phone banks push polling? There MUST be something demonstrably wrong with their methodology. Is there a money trail between the RNC and Gallup, Survey USA and the others? A partisan history among their management? Why am I not seeing something about this on the evening news?

It's like the guy that wakes up one morning and finds the bodies of twelve dead midgets and an African elephant on his front lawn. He may not how they all got there, but he can be damn sure that there is story behind it, and that it is news-worthy.